THE OUTLOOK FOR GREECE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A025700030007-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2014
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: October 28, 1964
• Content Type: NIE

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SECRET I?I
NO FOREIGN. DISSEM
NIE 29.1-64 ADVCON
28 OCTOBER 1964
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR GREECE
? The Political Scene
? Political Outlook
? Economic Trends
? Foreign Affairs
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NOTE: This is an advance copy of the conclusions of this estimate
as approved by the United States Intelligence Board. The com-
plete text will be circulated within five days of this issuance.
Central Intelligence Agency
SECRET
NO FOREIOW, DISSEM
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Submitted by the
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intelligence organizations participated in the
preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency
and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of
State, Defense, and NSA.
Concurred in by the
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
on 28 October 1964. Concurring were the Director of
Intelligence and Research, Department of State; the Director,
Defense Intelligence Agency; and the Director of the National
Security Agency. The Atomic Energy Commission Repre-
sentative to the USIB and the Assistant Director, Federal
Bureau of Investigation, abstained, the subject being outside
of their jurisdiction.
CLASSIFICATION OF TITLE IS OFFICIAL USE ONLY
WHEN USED SEPARATELY
GROUP 1
EXCLUDED FROM AUTOMAI1C DOWNGRADING
AND DECLASSIFICATION
46192
WARNING
This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
28 October 1964
SUBJECT: NIE 29.1-64: TBE OUTLOOK FOR GREECE
THE PROBLEM
To estimate probable developments in Greece over the next three to
four years.
CONCLUSIONS
A. The Center Union's electoral victory in early 1964 symbolizes
a general liberal shift on the Greek political scene. Hence, though
Papandreou has made a slow start in carrying out his promised reform pro-
gram and has thus far not provided firm and decisive leadership, the
position of the Center Union is likely to remain strong over the next
few years.
B. This prospect could be altered by the death or incapacity.
of the 76-year-old Papandreou; the ensuing struggle for powtr within his
own party might become so intense as to ,'disrupt it. The government could
also fall if Papandreou suffered real humiliation on the Cyprus issue.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
S-E-C-R7E-T downgrading and
declassification
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11, S-E-C-R-E-T Or
A radical shift to the left in Cyprus, unopposed by the government in
Athens, might lead the conservative forces, both civilian and military,
to attempt to oust the Papandreou government.
? C. Barring these contingencies, we believe that there is a fair
chance that the Center Union will hold together even after Papandreou
departs. If it split, ComMunist strength would be considerably enhanced,
but the cOnservative National Radical Union (ERE) would probably succeed
to power. Another possibility would be a reshuffling of allegiances and
the emergence of a new alliance between the more liberal ERE elements and
the more conservative elements of the splintered Center Union.
D. Greece has made notable economic progress over the past decade,
has established a favorable relationship with the EEC, and has improved
Its access to the international investment market by the recent settle-
ment of long-defaulted indebtedness. Rapidly growing imports and difficulties
in expanding exports could impair its foreign exchange position, particularly
since much of Greek foreign earnings derive from the vulnerable fields of
tourism and shipping. Nevertheless it seems likely that adverse factors
will be controlled, and the economy is likely to expand by about five or
six percent annually for the next few years.
2
S-E-C-R-E-T
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V S-E-C-R-E-T
E. Greece under Papandreou is pursuing a more flexible and indepen-
dent foreign policy than in recent years. At present, it is al:Most 'wholly
preoccupied with the Cyprus controversy. Prospects for any early, solution
are dim, and this will continue to cloud Greek relations with the US and
NATO. Greek-Turkish relations have been severely strained and are likely
to remain uneasy for years even after a Cyprus settlement. Normalization
of relations with the USSR and Eastern Europe will probably continue
particularly in the economic sphere. Nevertheless, we expect that Greece's
basic orientation will continue to be pro-Western.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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