TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE 29.3-64: THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE CYPRUS DISPUTE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A025700040019-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2014
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: May 22, 1964
• Content Type: MISC

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
22 May 1964
SUBJECT: TERMS OF RUERENCE: VIE 29444: THE LNPLICATIOES OF
THE CYPRUS DISPUTE
NOTE FOR THE BOARD
We hope to have an oral contributions meeting on this on
Wednesday, 27 May.
SCOPE NOTE
We think that there is at least a fair chance that the UN
may bring a measure of stability to the Cyprus situation. None-
theless future developments are far from clear. Hence this
estimate will focus largely on the near term future ie.
the next 6-12 months. After analyzing the major forces at
work within Cyprus and the attitudes of the countries concerned
with the dispute, we will examine the possible alternative
solutions. Finally, major emphasis will be devoted to the implica-
tions of the Cyprus problem for the various Western allies,
the Communist bloc, and the nonaligned nations.
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
SGE- R-E-T- downgrading and
declassification
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TOPICS FOR rasammon
I. THE FORCES AT WORK
A. Domestic
The locus of power within the communities on Cyprus,
the extent of dependence of communal leaders oP the
mother countries, the intentions and capabilities of
both communities, the role of the Communists, the mood
of the populace, and the freedom of communal leaders
to consider compromises.
B. External
Greek and Turkish forces on the island and their
Involvement in guerrila activities, the intentions and
capabilities of Greece and Turkey regarding Cyprus,
restraints on their freedom of action, the role of the
UK, the attitudes and activities of the USSR, and the
Influence of the nonaligned nations.
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II. EFFORTS TOWARD A SOLUTION
A. Mediation
The modus operandi of the UN, the relations of the UN
with the communities, the UN's ability to restore order
and promote disarmament the relations of the UN with
the mother countries, the interrelations of the UN
and NATO mediation efforts, the ability of NATO
mediation to change Greek and Turkish attitudes, and
the possibilities and utility of direct Greek-Turkish
negotiations.
B. Possible Solutions
The Greek and Turkish communal positions, the trend toward
radical solutions, the essentials of a viable solution,
and the prospects for an ultimate solution.
III. IMPLICATIONS OF THE CYPRUS DISPUTE
The effect on Turkey and Greece of either prolongation of
the current dispute or a solution either side considers
unsatisfactory, the possibility of armed intervention, the
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threat to NATO and to US relations with the countries
concerned, the role of the British and the threat to their
position in the Middle East, the implications for the Soviet
role in the area, and implications for the nonaligned
nations.
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