SNIE 70-64: SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A026200020022-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2014
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: March 31, 1964
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2014/04/24 : CIA-RDP79R01012A026200020022-7
S-E- -R-E-T
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
31 March 1964
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Allan Evans, State (INR)
USA (DIA)
JSAF, Chief,
Policy Staff, NSA
SUBJECT: SNIE 70-64: SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS
FOR SOUTH AFRICA
1. We have been requested by the White House to do an SNIE
on South Africa for completion by the USIB on 29 April.
2. The attached terms of reference represent our views of
questions to be considered. It is requested that your representa-
tives meet with us at 1000, Tuesday, 7 April, at CIA Headquarters
for the purpose of oral or informal written contributions, responsive
to these questions or any others you deem appropriate.
DISTRIBUTION
Executive Officer
National Estimates
-E-T
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
50X1
50X1
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/24: CIA-RDP79R01012A026200020022-7
S-E-C-R-E-T
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
31 March 1964
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REFERENCE: SNIE 70-64: SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS
FOR SOUTH AFRICA
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the short-term prospects for South Africa, with
particular reference to relations with the rest of Africa, the
UN, the UK, and the US.
SCOPE
1. We intend to write a short estimate, touching only briefly
on the internal situation, the expectations for continued political
control by the Nationalists, and the outlook for the domestic poli-
tical opposition (including White, Black, Coloreds, and Asians).
2. The major focus will be on South African foreign relations,
including:
(a) Repercussions abroad of particular South African
Initiatives, such as the passing of the Bantu Laws Amendment
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
S-E-C-R-E-T downgrading and
declassification
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/24: CIA-RDP79R01012A026200020022-7
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2014/04/24 : CIA-RDP79R01012A026200020022-7
S-E-C-R-E-T
Bill, and the implementing of the Odendaal Recommendations
on extending apartheid to South West Africa.
(b) The extent and effectiveness of action by the
OAU states against South Africa and her trading partners
(e.g., trade embargoes and secondary boycotts).
(c) South African responses to a ruling by the interna-
tional Court of Justice enjoining the South African Government
from extending apartheid laws to South West Africa. Also,
South African responses to subsequent UN actions in support
of the ICJ.
(d) Further possible initiatives of South Africa (e.g.,
withdrawal from the UN; closer ties to France; retaliatory
actions against the OAU states, or against Western states
applying pressure on South Afriea.)
-2
S-E-C-R-E-T
50X6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/24: CIA-RDP79R01012A026200020022-7