DCI BRIEFING FOR 20 APRIL WSAG MEETING VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01142A002000010019-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 17, 2005
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: April 20, 1975
• Content Type: BRIEF

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20 April 1975
DCI BRIEFING FOR
20 APRIL WSAG MEETING
VIETNAM
1. The basic conclusions and judgments of our brief-.
ing yesterday still hold, although in one specific
instance ---- which I will mention in a moment we are somewhat more pessimistic.
II. The government's position in eastern Military
Region 3 is deteriorating rapidly, and the Com-
munists may already be in the initial phase of
their three-pronged assault on the capital.
A. According to a late report from the Defense.
Attache Office in Vietnam, a large enemy force
in southern Tay Ninh Province is moving to-
ward Saigon.. According to the same report,
the Communists have also now taken the dis-
trict town of Ben Luc, in Long An Province.
Shelling of Bien Hoa and the nearby airbase
has resumed, and the North Vietnamese are
pushing westward along Routes 1 and 20.
B. The South Vietnamese have decided to withdraw
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their badly mauled forces from Y~:uan Loc the remaining two regiments of the ..Pith. Di-
vision and one airborne brigade - and aban-
don Long Khanh Province to the Communists.
1. The move will leave Bien Hoa extremely
vulnerable. The city will be defended
by only two newly-rebuilt marine brigades
and some armor, plus whatever troops can
be extracted from Xuan Loc.
a. We now believe that Bien Hoa will
probably be lost in a few days.
(Yesterday we estimated that its fall
was possible within a week.) Its loss
would lead to the rapid collapse of
other government forces.
b. The large supply depot at nearby Long
Binh holds approximately 60 percent
of all government munitions. The
government has taken no action to
remove these stocks.
C. Communist forces also are continuing their
drive down Route 1 along the coast. They
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are now approaching Ham Tan, the capital of
Binh Tuy Province.
1. The provincial capital. is lightly defended
by the remnants of the 22nd Division, and
the Communists probably will take it in
a matter of hours.
2. The fall of Ham Tan will put the Commu-
nists nearer to Vung Tau, and there al-
ready are signs that other Communist
forces from the Xuan Loc area are moving
toward Vung Tau from the north.
The town is guarded by a small force
made up of remnants from the Marine
and 3rd divisions and, as we indi-
cated yesterday, will probably be
lost in a few days.
III. Meanwhile, political opposition to President Thieu'
continues to mount in Saigon, and a coup attempt
or major political crisis could occur at any time.
Thieu, however, still shows every sign of intend-
ing to stay in office.
A. Within the next week, he plans to deliver a
speech which will make this intention clear
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and also challenge the US Congress to decade
on future support to Saigon.
B. Thieu intends to deny that he is an obstacle
to peace, but will reiterate that he will
never agree to a Communist takeover in the
South.
C. In this regard, Thieu will maintain that he
would step down only if this would ensure
quick and sufficient US assistance, and only
if the US agrees to "react vigorously against
Communist aggression."
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