SIE-5: THE SCALE AND NATURE OF THE SOVIET AIR DEFENSE EFFORT 1952 - 54

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01011A000200020022-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 10, 2008
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: November 8, 1952
• Content Type: SE

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TAP SECRET
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL EST114ATES.
8 November 1952
St1BJECT2 SIE..5: THE,
g~SCC?ALE y AND MATURE OF . T1flSOVIE! AIR DEF'E!EE
EFFORT 1y952.054
This estimate is the beat assessment on which basin agree-
ment can be reached eonsidering the evidence now available.
The IAC proposes to keep this subject under oontinuizg veroi w.
The present estimate does not attempt to mess Soviet air defense
capabilities relative to any assumed attaokibg forge. The IAC
hopes that it will provide the intelligence basis for such an
assessment of Soviet air defense capabilities.
USAF review completed.
NSA review completed
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H E MOB UM
To examine the present and probable future seal, and nature
of the Soviet air defense effort through XVAV
CONCLUSIONS
lv The USSR is carrying out an intensive program fee the
im rovees t of its air defense eye tern, with a priority i& iah in
probably second only to the Soviet attemio weapons progrmo Althou&
the USSR almm t certainly faces nmeer ws dov elopesentdl and proetotiao
problrn ee there appear to be no insoluble soonoade or tethoologioal
limitations which would prevent the development aad quantity p ton
of high quality air defense material, provided that this program am.
tinmiea to receive sufficiently high priority,
2 o The USSR ?e large and elaborate air defense zwtwork imlvidee
not only the tca ce s asaignsd to PVO-Stray, the Soviet sir defense
organisation, but also bas available to it those active air defense
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resources of the Soviet army, tactical air forces, and navy not
otherwise ccmildtted, The European satellite and. Communist Chinese
air defense forces add to and are integrated with the Soviet ayetexa
We b lave that a total of about 12,000 fighters, inalwUng roughly
7,500 jots, are potentially available from these forces for the air
ckfense of the USSR.
3. Because of the rapid Soviet progress In the electronic field,
and corollary developments in interceptors and antiaircraft weapons,
we believe that*
ao The approaches to most important areas in the USSR
we well covered by an early warning eye tan (ass para..,
37 and 38 and paraa, 70.18 of Appendix B and map on
page 27),
Soviet interception capabilities 1 v. considerably
increased with the widespread use of MI0.15 intw"pto"
and the introduction at modern 001 radar similar to
current US operational models. Under oonditiens of good
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day or night vi.sibi3itr this equipt is probably
oapaba gat controlled interceptions of bcmber flying
at up to 450 knots and 404j2,000 teat, or perhaps
higher,/
a o The USSR has norr some all-weather aircraft equipped with
eaq sriaental Al radar o It my now have a few dosm
all araatber airoraft with saw fosi* of AI equipwant In
operational units around a few key Soviet areas (see
paeas. 19 and 42 and pares. 20-21 (C.Appendix A)W
do Soviet anbtairaraft eapabilities are gradually inoras-
ing an new heavy AA gaga (estimated at 100 man) with
modern fire control radar and probably new directors
became available in increasing numbers in key Soviet areas o
IV
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These guns are capable of continuously pointed fir.
to 35,OOOfeet and barrage fire to 4o,000 feet. Hew.
e er, we believe that these guns will not be capable
of a high percentage of kills at these altitudes,
e~nen if controlled by the most modern fire control
equipment, (see pares. 44-45 and psra m 26 of Appendix A) e
e, Soviet low level defenses are also being improved by
the introduction at a new medium AA gun estimated to be
of 57 mn, calibre (see para. 25 at Appendix A).
f. Surface-to-4dr and air-to-air guided m sales could be
available in limited quantities,
Unguided rockets are probably in liadted uaeo (see
paras. 27-29 and pares. 36, 41 and 42 of Appendix A.)
4o Htlwevar, the following deficiencies probably still exist in
the Soviet air defense "tome
a. At present there are parobably insufficient numbers
of trained personnel, modern intercepters, radars,
and heavy AA guns to provide effective defenses for
all important areas.
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c a Existing Soviet interception Capabilities lard
conditions of poor visibility are serioasly united
by the lack of adequate murebere at all-weather
intsrespt's, and by the almost c.rtain inadrgvroy of
Soviet treicd.ag and eaPerisnos in a1]- lather later'
oeption tesso
5, The USM is making efforts to overcooe these and other
dat'ioi kiss sad we believe that the affeotivemass of Soviet air
2956
defames still have improved eubstantielly by the egad of
as Substantial quantities of the new ognipment already
identified should beooie available in moat important
arras s For axir l e, by mIA-1951s the Soviet tighter
farms will. probably be entirely equipped with an
eetiz*teed 10,000 jet fighters axd, interesptara,
includi 6 2,800.3,000 in the IA PVO0
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ba Soviet all-reatlre interception capabilities will
wimost certainly increase ca?aiderably altboogh
various deficieraciem in training, aeaintesnancsa and
esperiencs Wobabl' will etill sxt.t. We Mtimats
that by mid-1954 Soviet fighter steemgtb pzobab3
will. include numeral bu ndred of soar type at trite ail-
weathsr iateraeptat's
do There will probably be other now devol, entrs psrti-
cularly in interceptors, radar, gntded wd,ssilss, wd
rockets, designed to counter Western aogress in
offeusivs aerial ssapone0
I/
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