D/I, USAF ASSESSMENT OF MALIK STATEMENT 23, JUNE 1951

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79S01011A000400020004-0
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RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
4
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 10, 2000
Sequence Number: 
4
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
June 26, 1961
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SUMMARY
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Approved For Relea 000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79SO101 PZI, USAF ASSESS.SENT OF ni4LIK STATEaiSHT 23, JUNE 1951 CONCLUSIONS 1. An examination of the Malik speech in the light of existing intelligence loads to the following oonolusionsa ao 'The. speech was an opportunistic exploitation of an appro- priate oooasion to reiterate the,standard Soviet propaganda line, branding the Western powers as aggressors and disassociating the Soviet Union from the Korean war ba An obvious objective of the speech was to create dissension and disunity sraong the ::astern powers over the value of continued military operations in Korea, and to generate a false sense of security which would weaken the YYesteru resolve to mobilize for defense. co In addition to the purely propaganda aspects of the speechr, it probably reflects an actual desire to effect~a disengagement in Korea for reasons of Soviet expediency and on terms and at a time advantageous to the Kremlin* do The speech may also serve as a cover for further Communist aggressions in Korea or elsewhere. Itevlew of this dooament by CIA has determined that ^ CIA has no obiactIon to declass ^ it contains information of CIA Interest that mast remain classified at TS S C Authority, HR 70.2 . ^ ff Contains nothing of CIA interest Ditto --------- Reviewer *USAF Declass/Release Instructions On File* Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000400020004-0 Approved For Relea 000/08/29: CIA -RDP79SO1011 AQ00400020004-0 2. On 23 June, the chief Soviet delegate to the United Nations, Jacob A. Malik- made a statement on the UN radio broadcast, "The Price .of Peace", which concluded with a suggestion that discussions be started between the belligerents in Korea for a cease-fire and an armistice providing for the mutual withdrawal of forces from the 38th parallel, as a first step for peaceful settlement of the Korean questions This suggestion, while no doubt authorized by the Kremlin, is not an official proposal and does not oblige the Soviet Union to pursue it actively to its conclusion, nor does it associate the Soviet Union with the Korean conflict in any way save as a "peace-maker".. 3, The speech follows the current Soviet propaganda line and says nothing really new. The major portion of the speech was devoted to the usual denunciation of the West and to-reamed 4nsiatenoe upon the inclusion of the Chinese Communist regime among the five great powers, However, favor- able reference to the"peace" statement in Peiping broadcasts lends credence to it as something more than a pure propaganda mn veo 4o This convenient and timely use of the'Ut sounding board came on the eve of the first anniversary of the Kbrean--,'confliot and. immediately preceding an anticipated release of the announcement of a carefully planned US peace proposal. It also closely followed the recent US Congressional passage of the Kem Amendment "putting teeth" in the embargo on shipment of war materials to the Soviet Union and its satellites, including Communist China. 5.. An obvious propaganda objective of the speech is that of creating dissension among the Weptern powers as to the vale of continued military operations in Korea. Another logiost objective is the generation of an illusion of peace and 4'false sense of security, leading to the weakening of NATO, and of Western resolve to mobilize for defense*-, In addition, Malik's speech may be a cover for'further Communist aggression in Korea or elsewheroo 6. Although the speech probably was intended primarily as a vehicle for the spreading of Soviet propagaanda, it may reflect an actual desire for a cessation of hostilities, or a disengagement. The Soviet Union could have several valid reasons for wanting to bring the Korean campaign to a halt. Among those that might be to-the Soviet advantage a res ae To avoid the risk of general war implicit in more overt military assistance to Communist Chinae ba To prevent the Korean war from spreading into a Chinese Communist-UN major war, which would imperil the Chinese Communist regime. Approved For Release 2000/08/2-FDP79S01011A000400020004-0 Approved For Relea 2000/08 ' CM-iRbP79SO101 000400020004-0 ae To terminate the costly Korean campaign, which has causeds (1) devastation in N. Koren, (2) a drain of every kind on China's marginal war potentials, (3) at least a limited logistical drain on the Soviet Union, (4) obstruction to Communist expansion, particularly in Asiao do Prevent the full implementation of Western economic measures directed against the Soviet system. ee To extricate their Chinese ally from futile pursuit of the Korean campaign or alternatively to permit a breathing spell for the re- generation and concentration of those forces, including the ever growing air threat* f. To permit consolidation of Communist control in China.. g. To permit the development and deployment of the Chinese Communist capability toward other areas in Asiao h. To permit the regeneration of the North Korean military, forces ahead of the South Korean forces. 7. Considerations which affect in some degree, at least, the above apparent advantages, include the followings a, Defensive preparations in the non-Communist world have already achieved considerable momentum and a Communist peace move in Korea after a year of sustained aggression might not be accepted as sufficient basis for a substantial relaxation of the anti-Communist defense program. b. Present attrition of UN forces in being would be suspended for the duration of the cease fire* o. Increments of UN military strength would be made available for bolstering the defenses of other areas on the Soviet peripheryo do A renewal of Communist aggression in Korea or elsewhere after a temporary cessation of Korean hostilities might, in the Soviet view incur a greater risk of immediate global war than if the Korean il?stil#s ties were permitted to continue indefinitely. e? A soviet initiated cease fire might suggest Communist military weakness and cause a lose of Communist prestigo that smsld not be fully offset by the Soviet role of "peace sponsor". g Approved For Release 2000/08/29 CIA-RDP79S01011A000400020004-0 Approved For Release 00/08/2 AUf OFW79S010114 Op0400020004-0 f. If a possible permanent partition of Korea should result it might create a security threat to the Soviet Far East on the Asian mainland, . 8o On bs.lahoe, however,'the possible advantages accruing to the Soviets as a result of a disenpgemst of Oommunist forces in Korea are believed to offset the risks the Soviets would incur, particularly since* in their present role, they appareiitty need not pursue arq peace proposals if agreement is not reached on terms favorable to the KreIIlin. Mearahila the Soviets will retain in large measure the initiative for local aggression elsewhere on their perimeter whether or not they effect a disengagement in Korea. Approved For Release 2000/08/29 CIA-RDP79S01011A000400020004-0