PROBABILITY OF A COMMUNIST ASSAULT ON JAPAN IN 1951 INDICATIONS OF SOVIET INTENTIONS WITH RESPECT TO JAPAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01011A000400050017-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 17
• Content Type: SE

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ANNEX B TO SE -11
PROBABILITY OF A COMMUNIST-ASSAULT ON JAPAN IN. 1951
INDICATIONS OF SOVIET INTENTIONS WITH RESPECT TO JAPAN
.10 Intelligence Reports of Soviet Intentions. Since the
signing of Sino-Soviet alliance In February 1950, reports
have been received which state
triat Peiping and oscow nave decided to invade Japan in the event
Japanese rearmament. takes place.* More recently, since the Malik
cease-fire statement, reports alleging the results of high-level Sino-
Soviet discussions in Peiping have been received. Some of these
.reports, despite certain discrepancies, have been fairly consistent
in stating that a. primary objective of the cease-fire proposal was to
gain time for Communist milit ry preparations for further action,
not only in Korea, but also against other targets in the Far East,
including Japan. In these reports it is stated that if the Japanese
Peace Treaty is signed, Japan will be attacked, or that Chinese Com-
munist leaders believe that World War III will start in September
in -connection with the Japanese Peace: Treaty negotiations,. Coinci-
dentally, there has been unusual agreement among otherwise uncon-
firmed reports from Indochina, Southeast China, Peiping, Japan,
and Korea alleging, that C ommunist units, facilities, or personnel in
-those areas have been ordered. to be in a state of readiness in late
summer, On the other hand, there have been numerous reports
indicating that the Chinese Communists, 'at least are serious in
their efforts to end the fighting in the Far Easto
* For a detailed analysis of these reports, see Watch. Committee
Report. No. 53, dated 9 August 1951..
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Military- Indications.
(a) Ground Forces- One report in July stated that
20 new Soviet divisions were being, activated in the Far
East, with 10 already fully organized anMalai. nipped and. two
of them scheduled for early transfer to An
earlier report lso alleged that
two Soviet divisions move. to STUFUM-bef ore the end of
June 1951. These reports are not believed reliable, how-
ever, and there has been no further indication from any
source: of a further Soviet troop build-up in. the Far East,
,recent shifts in the location of major units, or of the
mustering of ground forces in embarkation. areas pre-
liminary to amphibious operations.
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4.. Propaganda. Soviet propaganda continues to re-
affirm -Communist opposition to the proposed US-J draft of
the Japanese Peace Treaty. Pravda recently repeated the Com-
munist- theme that "everyone to whom peace is dear will reject
the Japanese treaty draft as a threat to peace in the Far Easto99
There. is no suggestion in Soviet propaganda of an intent to invade
Japan in.,the ne--ar future, however, and' conslderabW emphasis
is being-given to the theme that a. "Big Five Pact" to settle questions
of German and Japanese rearmament should follow the conclusion
of a Korean cease-fire.
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