TERMS OF REFERENCE: SE-37: PROBABLE EFFECTS OF VARIOUS POSSIBLE COURSES OF ACTION WITH RESPECT TO COMMUNIST CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01011A000900010042-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 28, 2000
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: February 17, 1953
• Content Type: SE

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SECURITY INF+OflUATION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
1? February 1953
SUBJECT # 3 OF REFFRE1 1 51-37, PROBAIR,E PC.CTS OF
VARIOUS POSSIBLE COURSES OF ACTION C+TTFI R ! SPE T
To = .wan aiIIIA
1. To asanaine the current statue and effectiveness of controls
on trade with Communist China, to examine the aiort and lone term
effects on the capabilities of the Chinese Communist regime oft
(a) a complete embargo; (b) a naval blockades alone or combined with
bombardment of transportation facilities in Communist china; and
(c) a Chinese Nationalist effort at blockade and aerial. bombards nt,*
The means by Wich su courses of action could be implemented is
beyond the scope of this paper. Mother or not such courses would
be politically feasible or even desirable in the light of thoir
economic repercussions on the non-Communist v rld is also beyond,
the scope of this estimate.
SECR'~'T
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2. To eett to Ooum niat reactions to these n acmes,
(Note to the ovt Uibuto"_ ft terms of retererte fella
closely the form and outline of SE 27 and am civen here in full.
It is sugpeeted that the terms of reference be checked against
the text of SE-27 and that in paragraphs or sections of SE-27 where
there is no changes the Contribution merely refers to pertinent
paragraphs of SE..27. Minor changes should also be indicated.
Complete terns of reference are necessary in order to clearly
define the scope of the paper, but it is hoped that by following
the procedure above research may be restricted to the area in
which now information is available.)
QU MTIONS BEMIS ON ZIE PROBL]](
O/RR T., CnIAT IS THE EX' D1T OF PRESM T CONTRa.S ON TRADE V1ITH COI.WNIST
check with
OI'I
OIR and ONI MM TRIT Nam= I'm MM 7112 20M "M MF
OIR,ONI II. 11IIAT HAS BEEN THE E"ECT TO DATE OF 0OIITROLS CU TRADE WITH
O/RR ST
Immi
A. What has been the effect of trade controls on Comunfst
China's ability to import?
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OIR,ONI
OIR,ONI
1 e not sea borne imparts (ill riding estimates of
smuggling) has Commie' China received since
ocntrols were First applied, with special reference
to the current volume and composition, and to s
since the publication of SE-27? (June 1952)
2. Ahat reductions in Communist China's seaborne imports
from non.Commmist countries have occurred since the
imposition of the present control measures, with
special reference to the period since the publication
of SE-277
OIR,O/RR Ob 3, To what extent have Soviet Bloc shipments to Communist
China offset these reductions? Estimate the composition
and volume of Soviet Bloc trade with Communist China
with special reference to current volume and composition,
and to trends since the publication of SE-27?
Be What has been the effect on Comounist China's econor or of
the changes in level and pattern of imports that have
occurred since the imposition of present trade controls?
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SECRET
OIR,O/RR 1. What industries have been affected, and to ahat extent?
:that is the Importance of these industries to the
Chinese Comr nist war effort in Korea? hat is the
ii cartes a of these industries to the stability aad
development of the Chinese Communist econoxy?
OIRyO/RR 2. Vhat has bean the effect on transportation? ;.'hat
repercussions have transportation difficulties had?
OIR 30
Have there been any significant effects in the non?
industrial segments of the econor such as finance
and agriculture?
Defense C. What has been the effect of the economic dislocations
covered in (B) above upon Communist China's military
capabilities, oepecially in Korea?
OIR D0 +'hat has been the effect of the economic dislocation
covered in (B) above upon the ability of the regime to
maintain political control in China?
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Ow vim gum to mm CHINEW CIMMMOT Boom
Tba iep0~itiann of a total eabar3o by the entire nanoCodma~oiat
world iu1d presamab3J extend to both trade and shipping.
The 3~up1i ntat icn of sun an eebargo wau1d presnmaably
include meaamys to prevent the transfer or charter of
aoa.C r- gist shipping to Comamist China, the denial
of bunt idg and earftoig in nun-Commmatat ports of
ships bound for Chinese Co ammAst port., m d the tram-
thipmsnt of ra-Camiiwdet goods dir.ct3y or indirectly
to Coam uiiet China from of e? ooaatries in the Soviet
Bloc, $' definition, such an embargo wca3A out off
Cam ondst China's trade (exdept eenggling) with au
countries outside the Soviet Bloc.
A. Vhai wed be the effects of a complete economic
embargo an Coemaniat China's trade pattern over the
next yew?
3mm
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83 =
Uhat 10 the probable mount sand composition of trade
with 10011moo chaos that rrpu'id be "loath? (istimsto
the saoudt- and coaopositioaa of ComeounSat ChImts
Clads 11th ~aon.Co nist world for the next yew
asst ng a oobtlnuation of the present controls. )
2. Uhst would be the composition and vrolvaas of Coam-iat
China's imports IV= the rant of the Soviet I on
(a) by slat (b) by land? Mat upper ].units nnnld
be ieiposed bor transportation shortages? Tt at
eooeoul a strains motild be planed on the Soviet Moo
if it att~seiptad to provide Cosrsudst China with both
its eilitarj' And gird -eoo csic rsquiremea~ts? If
it attempted to provide Coamaniat China with sufft.
oint assistance to support a gradaa1 eacpamion of
the Chinese Cast eoonow Could the 18 Pro.
vlde aseistadoe an this scale without serious effects
as its ova planned eoonciato devslopeact?
OIR,OAM 3. that would be, the net change is Ccnsnaiet Chirrrs
external trads pattern.
s~t~r
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OIR B. !tow would this charge of trade pattern affect CoWunist China'-s
econowl
1. What would be the effects on to industrial segment of
Communist China's ocono '? 'hat is the importance of
the affected industries to the war effort in Korea,
to the Chinese Com unist econorV as a whole?
OIR,O/RR 2. What would be the effects on transportation? .'hat
would be the repercussions of these effects to the
rest of the econor -?
OIR 3. What would be the effects in other sectors of the
econogr such as fiscal and agriculture?
1 What is the ability of the Chinese Com uais t economy
to replace the "lost" commodities front domestic
sources? that would be the diffused effects of
shortages and of alterW, production patterns so
that these items would be produced donestically?
OIR,O/RR
C,
What would be the effects on Chinese Commtnnist military
Defense
capabilities with special reference to their ability to
sustain operations in Korea?
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1. Would there be a cut-back in munitions production.
In civilian type goods used by the Army?
2. Would there be aeW effect on the ability to transport
troops and to provide military lorietical support?
0IR D. ?What would be the extent and nature of the effects of a
complete econorc etybargo on the regime's ability to
maintain political control on the Chinese mainland?
OIR,
all agencies
OIR,
all agencies
Be M t effect mfght a complete economic embargo have on
econocdc, political, and military relations between the
Chinese Communists and the USSR?
F. that would be the effect of a complete econo is embargo
maintained over an extended period of time - 2 to 5 years -
on Communist China's military capabilities and over-all
economic and political strength? (Answer generally in
terms of II through E above o.)
All agencies 0 What factors would tend to prevent full enforcement of
an economic embargo? To what extent would these factors
reduce the effectiveness of an e: bargo?
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0/t
a
A. Msnubg that a wal blockade wbad cut off substantially
all at Ooaegnist China'* sea-borne Im ports$ to that extent
could the toss of these imports be made up by additional.
*owl w airports from the Soviet ffioc?
What 3.121.tatiana would be placed on this trade by
the capacity of land tra*portation to Carrmunist
China?
2. that liffitattoce would be placed on this trade by the
cmcwent asoadtlr'of tainnd treusportation witft
Kano nria and in Caaerdn st.China? T1hat is
the oa abilitrir of Coaaa iat- China to inc such
capacity i er ooas it~ions of a blocckaftf, t assis.
taxes eould the US provide to increase s capacity?
3?
What,eoocomic strains itd be placid on the Soviet
A~,tie if it attested to rroyUW Cott CWna with
both its sdlitaYy mtd minion economic requMments?
If it attempted to provide Coat Aiina th
sufficient assistance to support a gradual on
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O/RR
2. The aadlittay capabilitim of to regimes eepeaia