LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT IN NORTH VIETNAM 1955-61

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01046A000800130001-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 1, 1962
• Content Type: REPORT

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Economic Research Aid
LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT
IN NORTH VIETNAM
1955-61
CIA/RR A.ERA 62-2
July 1962
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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CONFIDENTIAL,
Economic Research Aid
LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT
IN NORTH VIETNAM
1955-61
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CONFIDENTIAL
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FOREWORD
The purpose of this research aid is to provide background information
on labor supply and employment in North Vietnam for the period 1955-61.
A national census in North Vietnam in March 1960 and the compilation of
economic handbooks by the North Vietnamese State Statistical Bureau have
made this research aid feasible, but estimates are subject to further
revision when more complete information is received.
This research aid is the third published by this Office on labor sup-
ply and employment in the Communist Asian countries. The first report
was CIA/RR RA 59-12, Labor Supply and Employment in Communist China,
1952-58, August 1959, SECRET, and the second was CIA RR RA 59-1 , Labor
Supply and Employment in North Korea, 1953-58, November 1959, SECRET.
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Population and Labor Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
II. Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
A. Civilian Labor Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
B. Workers and Staff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
C. Handicrafts and Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Appendixes
Appendix A. Statistical Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Appendix B. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Appendix C. Source References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Tables
1. Estimated Population of North Vietnam, by Age Group,
1955-61 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2. Civilian Labor Force of North Vietnam, by Occupation,
1 March 1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3. Estimated Civilian Labor Force in North Vietnam, 1955-61 . 10
Ii. Average Number of Workers and Staff in State Enterprises
in North Vietnam, by Economic Sector, 1955-61 . . . . . . 10
5. Estimated Number of Workers and Staff Employed in Industry
in North Vietnam, by Type of Ownership, 1955-61 . . . . . 11
6. Estimated Number of Workers and Staff Employed in Industry
in North Vietnam, by Type of Industry, 1957 and 1960 . . 11
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Page
7. Estimated Employment in Industry and Handicrafts in North
Vietnam, 1956-60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
8. Estimated Agricultural Labor Force in North Vietnam, by
Type of Ownership, 1955-61 . . . . ? . . . . . . . ? . . 12
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LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT IN NORTH VIETNAM-
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Summary and Conclusions
On 1 March 1960 the government of North Vietnam took a national cen-
sus for the first time. The census included information on the popula-
tion by age, sex, and occupation, thus permitting an analysis of the
North Vietnamese labor force on the basis of official data. The census
taken in conjunction with official data recently published by the State
Statistical Bureau of North Vietnam makes possible a reevaluation of
estimates of population, labor supply,** and employment.
Of the total population of 15,916,955 in North Vietnam as of 1 March
1960, the civilian labor force represented 51 percent, with agriculture
accounting for more than three-fourths of this labor force. With con-
tinued industrialization of North Vietnam, however, it is anticipated
that the percentage of the total labor force in agriculture will decline
gradually over the period of the First Five Year Plan (1961-65).
* The estimates and conclusions in this research aid represent the best
judgment of this Office as of 1 May 1962.
** The term labor supply as used in this research aid refers to the pop-
ulation of working age (15 through 64+ years).
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I. Population and Labor Supply
On the basis of the first national census ever taken in North Vietnam
the population of the country was given as 15,916,955. This total was
broken down by age, sex, and occupation. The regime also has published
estimates of the total population at midyear for 1955 through 1960 J*
without breaking down this information in terms of age, sex, and occupa-
tion. These latter population figures were derived on the basis of a
flat projection of 3.45 percent per year, which is the rate of popula-
tion increase announced by the regime** and apparently is based on some
kind of official survey taken in 1957,*** J although no details of the
survey have been received.
There are three basic problems with the official population data for
North Vietnam. First, the census population distributed by age exhibits
inexplicable anomalies at ages under 25. Second, the census population
distributed by sex shows an unusually large excess of females at advanced
For serially numbered source references, see Appendix C.
During 1961 the officially announced rate of natural increase was
3.7 percent, and the regime apparently is projecting the total population
to 1965 at an average annual rate of slightly above 3.7 percent. J
*** This high rate of increase may have been obtained from one of two
types of surveys: from a survey of old registration records or from a
survey of the population in an urban area. When population registers are
used as a basis for political control, including recruitment and tax as-
sessments, there is a strong motivation for young adult males to avoid
being registered. As the regime strengthens its control over the popula-
tion, more and more of these males become registered. Where population
registers are used. as a basis for ration allotments, not only is the pop-
ulation registered more completely, but also births are more accurately
reported than deaths. Under such circumstances, base populations are
usually underestimated, birth registration is relatively complete, and
death registration is grossly deficient. The rates of increase computed
from registrations thus may be far above the actual rates. The use of
urban population surveys as a basis for determining the natural rate of
increase also exaggerates the rate of growth. Such surveys in a growing
city would mean a relatively youthful population with a high proportion
of young married couples in the childbearing ages, age groups that would
have high birth rates and low death rates even if registration were abso-
lutely accurate. Extrapolation of these rates to the rest of the urban
and rural population thus would greatly exaggerate the rate of growth of
the total population. For these reasons, the rate of increase of 3.45
percent used by the regime for 1955-60 has been rejected in this research
aid.
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-ages, a phenomenon commonly found in censuses of nonliterate populations
where female ages tend to be exaggerated. Third, the announced rate of
natural increase -- 3.45 percent per year -- appears much too high, for
it implies an advanced stage of control over mortality that is not be-
lievable in view of the frequent official complaints of poor health con-
ditions and of deteriorating food supplies during 1955-61. The popula-
tion figures presented in Table 1* attempt to meet these three problems.
These figures are based on the census figure for the total population
and on a model age-sex distribution, projected from 1960 at rates con-
sistent with current demographic conditions in North Vietnam.
From 1955 through 1961 the population of working age (15 through 64
years) increased at an estimated average annual rate of about 1.1 per-
cent (or about 100,000 per year) compared with the estimated average -an-
nual increase of 1.5 percent (or about 230,000 per year) in the total
population (see Table.l). In 1955-56 the total population and the popu-
lation of working age grew very little, primarily because of the war
losses in,previous years and the migration.of about 1 million people
during 195+-56 to South Vietnam. Since 1957 the population of working
age has grown at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent, or about 125,000
per year, compared with an average annual increase of 1.8 percent, or
about 280,000 per year, in the total population.
II. Employment**
A. Civilian Labor Force
According to the census of 1 March 1-960, the civilian labor force
of North Vietnam represented 51 percent of the population, or 8,119,286,
of which 6,377,02+ were in agricultural occupations and 1,7+2,262 in non-
agricultural occupations. The occupational distribution of the total labor
force given in the census of 1 March 1960 is presented in Table 2,*** and
estimates of the civilian labor force for 1955-61 are shown in Table 3.t
Appendix A, p. 9, below.
Data on employment contained in the tables exclude the unemployed
in urban areas and persons in the armed forces. Data on urban unemploy-
ment are fragmentary, but more than 100,000 workers were reported as be-
ing unemployed in 1955. J During the first 9 months of 1960 the regime
reported that about 40,000 jobless persons became employed, L J and at
the Third National Congress of the Vietnamese Workers Party in September
1960 it was officially stated that urban unemployment had been "basically
eliminated." !/ Although the regime does not publish data on the size of
its armed forces, they are estimated at about 275,000 men.
*** Appendix A. p. 9, below.
t Appendix A, p. 10, below.
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From 1955 through 1961 the civilian labor force increased at an estimated
average annual rate of 2 percent. The nonagricultural labor force in-
creased at 7 percent compared with an average annual increase of 1 per-
cent in the agricultural labor force.
B. Workers and Staff
Throughout the countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc the term workers
and staff is used as an employment classification. The term as used in
North Vietnam is believed to include all persons who are paid a fixed wage
or salary, including paid employees of state, joint state-private and co-
operative, and private enterprises.* This classification excludes entre-
preneurs and individual artisans. Although workers and staff in North
Vietnam are primarily engaged in nonagricultural employment, employees
of state agriculture also are included. The average number of workers
and staff in state agriculture was only about 18,000, or 3.7 percent of
the total number of workers and staff in 1960.
From 1955 through 1961 the average number of workers and staff
in state enterprises increased at an average annual rate of more than
23 percent, from 168,000 in 1955 to 597,000 in 1961,** as shown in
Table )+.*** The largest part of this increase is attributable to the
rapid expansion of industrial activity under the Communist regime, but
a substantial part is accounted for merely by the reclassification of
workers from other types of ownership to state ownership.
During the North Vietnamese Three Year Plan (1958-60), workers
and staff in industry grew at an average annual rate of 17 percent (see
Table 5t). During this period, employment in light industry increased
by nearly 50 percent, and employment in heavy industry increased by
100 percent (see Table 6tt). In spite of the larger percentage growth
in employment in heavy industry, there were still only 40,000 workers
and staff in heavy industry compared with 101,000 in light industry at
the end of 1960.
* Anyone using North Vietnamese statistics is cautioned to ascertain
in each case whether official data cover all workers and staff or only
that part of workers and staff attached to state enterprises.
** In May 1962 the regime for the first time announced figures on the
total number of workers and staff for 1957 and 1961. According to these
figures, the total number of workers and staff had increased from 335,000
in 1957 to 750,000 in 1961. J
***
Appendix A,
p.
10,
below.
t
Appendix A,
p.
11,
below.
tt
Appendix A,
p.
11,
below.
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C. Handicrafts and Agriculture
From 1956 through 1960, employment in handicrafts it estimated
to have grown by about 5 percent per year (see Table 7*) compared with
an increase of nearly 15 percent per year in employment in factory in-
dustry, but handicrafts still employed almost four times as many people
as industry at the end of 1960.
In spite of the emphasis of the Communist regime on the expansion
of industrial output and in spite of the movement of people from agricul-
tural to nonagricultural employment, there has been a slight increase in
the estimated total agricultural labor force (see Table 8**). It is anti-
cipated, however, that because of the emphasis on industrial output the
percentage of the total labor force in agriculture will decline gradually
over the period of the First Five Year Plan (1961-65). In typically Com-
munist fashion the regime has forced the peasants into collective -agri-
cultural organizations by stages. It is estimated that only about 10 per-
cent of the agricultural labor force would have remained outside collec-
tive organizations by the end of 1961.
Appendix A, p. 12, below.
Appendix A, p. 12, below.
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