STATE POSITION ON CAPABILITY OF CHINESE COMMUNIST RAILROADS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01100A000200030005-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2000
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: January 29, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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5:: m Cute r~ ~r N4 IA
STATE PC 7IT.CO S .,y (,AP 7T3MVr UP
9 , T'ant ry 15j%
fortunately, U conclusion of t. 17 : ' tit f t tone
pates and compwing t b.'.ts Ll. vitAt tth2 Chase C LUt c1a f ?-
Est e2afts by cons, rZIot:M_ a 1 Of a sal
25X1 C
1. M sere ai . b.-Le effort to et M: - u ?aa
Chinese Co ist : ?all 7 sfor dam l xUpa dently of Chlviov*
Chase C fst raf.1.wV'Ps :L1 1932 VMV 40 million tons c -lya
ux mat e., considering (a) thar o ff. rea Lion to est ' + at over
50 uion tans l93 M, ost o: B c h vote he vAd on fte rat1 p
(b) that a large co
and o l r building ' rials., ant (o) that t1vt Torewi ter and t iv
on the railways of heavy to , of stone, crushed x ks t
eftio ztr vay on the raiy=,
wader cox ul l ie s z . In ?aan aaxs vb1ch d she
orientation of t the Soviet Bloc x oessitated l-,
freight y s to and. f' , thu L. hs subsequent a, u 4 s to
this tbooratical
mDdel
ipermit an unar estIn of
tons origimted of 60 _'Liin tow, .oh st,.,1. wanara to
Wy lo v.
J3,o thex are n di-ZOer a b&t%men the ' o tica1. 1
ana the Chinese Co t rally/' r o m o 4e ola as i )- . o x d. her
DIR,. tJw es ,a1 differew* aj ar; to l1e in t d t5 ax .y
in arbar, the t . - r than ' a'el Imes Including di s: .
and terminal stops for s hkx;g loading an& unlO&MZgj itir., o w
t oat model i di ates ?.hat the t tfn for cars In
operation 1952 would be In igh hood. of six Jaya vith s t i
over 100 hours for di Tonal an Ina stops, .le the C Iva se
C t claims woold a? st a tiumx^Otui?1 tine of 2* 9 day a M 11
hours fordivisional and l stops4 OIR ' l i c that the major
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
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defeat of t dial m del is at this pow, sip it a p as s to give
no ight to the effe s of the rax%bless masures taken by the C.U.i. se
o n ats speed up f ig3x`+ . i`lonr, InalvdIng labor --ups, 24 hour
shits at jor stations, nae i on shippers the necessity to
o "o to the con utene a of tha railroad. 25X1 C
Zn .8 03R believes that Is u is because
it does not sufiicient3y? tai into. account either the historic railroad
data ? both Chinese National and. Zapartee m- or amble 3 llige ace
on raliv%W bons and other petits of the economW of C nlst China
O1 R accepts Chinese Cos 4 .. t cladus regarding the freight tons
or ted, audtbe fright ton :i.l rs, but belives - a this total
perform= 'was aeon 1ishei with a larger number of cars end i4t 1 the
railway sye gating u . m leas strain than is ial.d by t . se
C t data. The C position t s into consideration historic data,
e ty nta, data derived from interrogations, as well as Chim
C t published rally data. In OIW a v1svp however, t Ml
Justified, with respect to its estiiate of the i carp .
and to its eatimets of the rapid ty of the traffic flag or the strain under
wbich the railer Komi in t rati .
R. car park estl to Is bem4 on a is of the c is
rk si 1945. An 4 ns y'sis of the nu rs of a limbed ob.a
pie of cars p a l s xi= of ' rte eviftnce for this
projection of this sa le rafleots the 1945 cam park and
daces not revwsl the extent of deatruction or reawaas in aubseq , years.
Hwawmr., the appearame of no s as believed to t?eflect ce bain
dev el r ;.a under the se C n i sts, although it is not yet certain
that these newly rn d. cam include eit sing r or In ac bin ti
(a) production, (b) reconstructed ca=, (c) the restoration or
(d) lets;, (e) or the rernutx ring of existing cars.
believes that the - ice. value of this analysis is icy mat in pro
..
v , ; _. an Independent check on the CF se Con m ,et *ar . perk; hope ,
oln In incline to. believe that at the present step of this aanalrale the
conch ss ns are speculative, tent ,. and, pre turee
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In, its eatimates of turnaround tia and other performane:e factors,
estimates have differed from Chinese Communist claims: and in general
b IndIrAteA a sloes meme of traffic than 3ncatee4L by Ch:se
C?eneatni t claiaeso This s3 novem of tx xf`Pie of course c:ons?atent
idth acc apt g the Chinese C+omm at m on total perf ep c i
to CMOs estimate of a lar pr ear park than alaivied by the C1 ne C n ists d
ear, Justifies its estimates of tur ound. time and ! perf,
facts 1 rge3y on the basis of their proximity to Chime* Ccm ueiat claims,
and has not offered any a planation as to r certain Chinese Ccrmudst
statistics night be aonsi. _ reliable ard otberaa varying ftg e ,
less trust o by. In 01110s vicra Chinese Cyst data are i r6 pendent;
n of any one figure ve ldd tend to out doubt on the reliability
rpretation of all related figureso,
0 ooncurs with +O O a er i e of total use - I. fit ral Lvay
pe fo nee but believes that the rail eye em had, a left anal,
yes .ice under a grey r? strain than is iM:icated b V the > estimate a.
bu of the data on current Chinese C ist rail y +I rations
conas from bass C t sources and of course mast be treatA A with
caution as to. its inte -retation a reliability. O believes That the
da a alter subJect to em o, diffew2encos In rotations reflect
actual operations,# since. (a.) a lex of data have been Usued :sip
1949 on both the national and regional level and a11 of these data appear
r acy' consent, (b) nearly all of the data a stated In
pbysicaal units rather than in pe sts of a base period,. and
most of the. statistics have been clearly defined,, (c) the data provide
25X1 C xesult s app .tely consent with available estimates of i deal trams,
promotion, and economic devel. a in Comet Chimp.. both oz a
national and. regional level., and (d) reports f n-CC u st
VbII* not
conchs ve;, have tad to support Chinese Cc un at clams on ralloay
o rations and none, to Mtn law led ,. a +eha]:].an the reliability
or apparent met wng of Chinese C st rai3vay date.
snBR
mswrr~.ar
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S-E-CwR-H- T
?IR is av , and it bas bwen el ea ?ly brought out In tt o T
working group discussions, that the speed of freight car circulation
claimed by the Chinese C is is ununval. Hmmveer, ODt believes
that available Intelligence i dicates that a considerable speed-t% has
occurs: and is the result,, not so mob of efficient railroad of ation, 25X1 C
but of the strain iMosed on the railways by Chi se C b n i l htar7
and ono .cc requirements and of the willingwas of the Chinese Communists
to cloy labor intensively, to reduce freight services, and to sacrifice
e rat to most current tranaport. ls,
wed that speed-ups in 19332 bad resulted In reduced
of eel e nt and abnormally high repair bills,: ile the
Chinese C st Minister of Ralf omitted that the railva s bad
met quantity goals only at a heavy cost in the quality of sex-Act.
ale there may be room for possible misinterpretation if Ch:bmser
C t railway data, C3B is incllAmd to believe that the Chinese
C ts. have established: a standard terminology and that the itatietical
tern ? have ibe standard or con meanie ei lc'eyed. on other railroads,,
It my be noted that a number of articles have been published In the
Chinese C t. technical tine fOr rai lvayton, "People& s B i va3 l "
which have defined and eZl d the scope and use of mm4r of th t
statistical texas.
consequence, CIR bao cons . d that the Chirac* Comm mist
claim of 131 million "freight tons: carrieV in 1952 has the s t?sn bwd
waning of t tee as ee toyed on most national railvVo th ou iout the
w rld 1y.* tons. of f iglt ted within the country plus tons
of friht received from otber countries. Considered in the light of
reported car$loadix and reported freight ton kil ,, this Mf init ',on
of *eight tons carried appears to be the raost reasonable. (For use
Chinese Co gist. rai! vay data on 1950-52p see Table 1,, }
It has been sugpated$ h ver;, that "freight tons +c : ed't sy
be defid as it is in the where it, is the sum of the total fight
carried by each of the privy lines., Including the freight earl meted
on the line and the freight received frcm otber lines. While On! ne
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this i ion as less probable, OIR a a that this a I oosihi1ity
wbUh std be exmxLmdO particularly because of the r in vhieth Chinese
C - t. i1 ' data bm been - .. izo L Each of the 12 ilvay
ad nisi ,tiv bt aus publish yor-Zo=tee data for raid. e a
jtwisdiation. If the Ministry of EaUvu" MweZ SMS or avt agee
obtAdn the ti a for the eyatm as a i ho
double
or diistorsi t .d. rsuit* Z pazrticul=,,, the fa t t
: t om and ? i d gixm o t h e r c o u n t r i e s v o u l d be o er ate , a6.
h. of ?r ul,, the turnarouna tie, and the nuber c C c
in cation ?wou 9.d be und"-stateiL, 03R bas calculs d. in Table the
tble; possible pro &u voul . have on the ;ric 'ox
da iu 1931 tb.: a ear for v eh f l data a available) t ., u g
that i -bu eau fz*Uft =ad ram between 10 a (tl prc.,t ca
of iutt .l of the 16 tional w iii in China - in
1935.36) 25 je ut of the might tons carried.
Me dIffierence of . if of on Chinese Guist raitvay
vblaft ire despite the ei,ties of the iioa
tJ Z1 t city for fear researdh a e 3.e of this problem. In
o S a vUvp f ar .efforts should be. Me to a mess the ditdr and
VRMLUW of Pub36dl ise Geist Tiles data, alum they a
the .Z1' pass b base ft r obtainimS a fairly o honsiv* i ia; u
Chines a ajtist rai ej ope.,,~ atious, If these data ccauuot
t h e vemiWAS lli u c e on Chi mm C. i s t rai
apjve&rz equate= to OMMt o . a to ioas est s or is c .
cap` ities, ithin Vhieh a ve of a sU
ce could hw* cu o the latter evert, the l of r .l y
ca u o accu . ly d t ti d fpm intieL'Ifpme
railer, such irUi on production,
the rasearft in the following fief mould pbab cyi'bta;'
to !dart` the waning. a i if an of Mduen, C at Tai 4vay
da'
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(1) A nom thorough std of the ration of 2tio data to
the to of the ii raid sus whom the statistics first
amwiled 25X1 C
(2)
and other noM=-f. rt Sources kawled4p
of t"h se Cm=wdst railtmg t : ions:, ; i ar1,y v th reOUL-b to
obte mS tl3e opiolom of the ` .idi y of Wis. C rai r
to and to deterainftS tin aMDUrLt , of t1r other the tra"I ti" spent
In .- .
(3) A ; sis of the *=wdItv slt ,on a
re of :l ` f1 w-
T"b10 1* 0IR I I,"i0N OF canmu O lST 0LA4:
ON T O O 1950.19
1952
10 ft*143ht *0U8 Carr i. (millions 131-0*
2q FmIght. ctonkjjcMt4Tq (bins) 5905*
5.
Average h ton of fi t
(~ r 2 1) 454,0
fi=U vim (days) a 209 '
Tms loaded ,; M
. . tor car (1
6Daily cr3oeftta
6a# Aunml (aoende)
7. Average r~ r or cacti in
09 (; x 6)
Aa Oal tie per
eS49ht COW
90 Aver
NiimAera per =Ir
69.6
h
1951 1950
110.6* 99.2*
5105e 38G9*
#66
77
25.98
11*663
*25T
37,x555 35$000
93T.3-- 223.0
104 Mama velle ; in oa turwwourA
(kI1 ra.) (8 x 4) 68802 71.9.3 619,2
11. moire In tra ait (10 , 9) 27.3 31.5 29.6
120 1. (4& . 21) 42,,3 X5.8 50.6
13, Load haul. - - of total
(3 lc~> $ 6$ 6%
tiow of of the "Minl= tai "0 *Wtalmd in tba eaptiaws
' W,! ~!. ?b amts E
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25..2 2208 20,9*
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a,, Tb=arou . tine as ealcu1 ted. by the Chinese C ista, ia~ hazed,
on act al cave in operation,. , lull those cars sideli ed for
repairs an, som earo held. "in reeer rea^ c in oper?ai;im
'could number s t less than the o le car aka ! ic1 t is
e sti t . at rmSWj 109OOCU. l d tine for 1952 of
9.9 days was originally re rr & fo the fit half of the tar&
but hex since been used. In I n&% fo n as the avwrv~p t L? 9nad.
t for the whole yearn
bs For the first b a,12 of 1952 the Miltme C ists d, ibat -L-te
"a. a to capacity X:er cad' Ivul been raiw& to 28- ,,onv
in core this obscure tee appears to an avexqp Jo 1t t
loaded aw, if it is r,-,j esentat.Lv of the rf uc e (giver
the year, daily plc - ag a sated at 12, 5C ads gage daily
cars in operation nit 36,25e.
co See a.. dbove.
do use data we pub I hedr f'nr the 'fir ek, half of the year eel; r
not be sentat vm of V* fuel ,ern-Do pefo ro
Q , A g e haul per ton of fight is n3- to be equal to t? he ave2Ap
loaded haul per 1o!ded: cer::
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-TI-O.R.E+-
T Table 2. EMMM OF T EM0!L OF V AS S` J TIOR8. O1 TE Ij" ON
OF P R S O N S CART T O M I O T O R S OF OR sI
FROM 03 0C S ON DATA ON 0 MM OaZ u1v GOAD R + It,', 1951
1,.. Fzeigbt t or d
(.11c) (arid)
2. l i ton-knomters
(b: m)
3- Avemp haul per ton of
ftvl&t loaded
-a) (2 4 1)
4a f around ti m (lays) a
Q in hours
50 Tons loaded car (1 6a)
6. Daily carloadUp
7e
94
100
U.
12.
13.
bas (A=wl) (tW=auas )
Average of an.-,a
in (4 z 6)
AVWSJP dai1 r diubmwe
,t ear
A Wpb fr0l&t
car ( t+ers per hour)
Die travvl3ad ;kone turn.
aroura (k:lmoft)
Boars In trait (10 4 9)
Loaded haul; Veraw1b of
tAYWI haul a
526
3.63
87.0
23.0
11,663*
4,257
300
223,4*
22.8*
809
31.5 35,5
45,8 51.3
620
4.27
102.4
19.5
11,653*
4,257
48, 800
923.4*
22.88a
954
41.8
6O.6
6 65% 65%
/~St/~,
iiO VQ: Y~n s f: U by an a 'SAAsk (*) UV- : or1giml L+IM b.9a &U. Fp m
t:. of calculations of the r iag f = contained, in the
beta: and fvotnotes.
Ae jon At that frel&b tons ca=Ied is equal to froj&t tones `1 ted
and receive. from other countr e,
Aemwptin B: that fmight to carried is the, mm oft igft tone married
bar. each Im vide rail y aaministrative bureau, arxt that
MW torte Ori ted and received fry other couni ies is
3.0r. lose,
Assn 4 r O: that might tons c ied is. the sum of the freiht tons. carrUd
by each ImIlvidusl it ' administrative gaup that
-8.
466
3.22
7.3
25[98
13.,663*
4,257
37,555
2230
2m
719.3
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24-21R.-M.
fmIgIt 1140118 origimted awl. Div
Is 25 Percent .1am.
(footnotes 'to Table 2)
Sium the pion of acv in tvw9ft end howi; a . 1 Is the saw
ba the "a :inistm . ba 9l t a tbim, "?i rae'' ` iu=arou
'ate" tu=ftvura can .euzi a, ri , by obtaWag the :mss
wit in 8 "I !~ '!fi t
(ate b- helav) a t emerge ttm1m speed bftmju division
was a c y by aimed.}.: this f % t
e f t . man "administru-bive b
b. S i c a a f . . distanee t i ct to talon Into accoumt nthe calculat.bou
of an "a dzdxa tra ^ bu u to md$, the pro: iou of . y to
loaded haul both the " r t tj b u' i
U W O M A . The " t u r a w o u r d d can ' cu u t t ' Y B-
re on ao ian that the aka bma off` ;rim is
Oqlml to the a uL per lase car,
above*
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