TRENDS IN THE CUBAN ECONOMY AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00429A000600030032-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: October 8, 1963
• Content Type: IM

Approved For Release 2diH/JWA-RDP79T00429A040& 03-6
OCI No., 2364/63
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
8 October 1963
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: Trends in the Cuban Economy and Prospects
for the Future
1. The Cuban economy appears to be in a general
state of stagnation with little evidence of any sig-
nificant change for better or worse. Because of the
importance of sugar to the whole economy, however,
the failure of the 1963 sugar harvest indicates a net
decline in total economic activity is likely this year.
2. The 1963 sugar harvest was the worst since
1945. While extensive new plantings of cane in 1962-
63, along with better weather, laid the foundations
for a modest upturn in the 1964 sugar crop, the sud-
den farm nationalization measures announced by the
regime on 3 October and as yet undetermined destruc-
tion resulting from hurricane Flora cast doubt over
the entire agricultural picture. The confusion intro-
duced by this development may forestall any increase
in agricultural output in general, and sugar produc-
tion, in particular, for at least another year.
3.
Nevertheless, Castro s housing
program as clear y ost impetus and rationing has
been extended this year to cover shoes and clothing
as well as food. A serious shortage of cereal prod-
ucts has recently developed in Cuba, but presumably
will be alleviated by current Soviet shipments from
Canada.
25X1
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4. Cuban industry is confronted with limitations
making increased production in the next 18 to 24 months
very difficult if not impossible. The electric power
system appears to have reached its maximum capacity
and no significant increase in power consumption can
be expected until the two new power plants under con-
struction at Mariel and Santiago are brought into op-
eration, probably not until sometime in 1965. Further-
more, there is little prospect that Cuba will be able
to increase foreign exchange earnings in the next year
or so. Without increased bloc aid, imports probably
will be confined to their present level and industrial
expansion, which would require increased imports, will
be checked.
5. There seems little prospect for any improve-
ment in the level of economic activity in Cuba within
the next year or two. Further decline, however, cannot
be predicted at present. The depressed consumer goods
situation will continue. There are a few scattered
indications that the regime now is willing to increase
imports of food and consumer goods, but it is doubtful
that Cuba is in a position to significantly relieve
its shortages.
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