THE MILITARY SITUATION IN LAOS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00429A001100050034-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: June 19, 1963
• Content Type: IM

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Current Intelligence
19 June 1963
SUBJECT: The Military Situation in Laos
1. Communist forces in Laos over the past
four months have applied intimidation, subver-
sion, and small-scale military operations to take
control of virtually the entire Plaine des Jarres
and most of south-central Laos from neutralist
commander Kong Le.
3. Deterioration of the neutralist position
began in mid-February with the assassination of
Kong Le's field commander, Colonel Ketsana. This
was followed in mid-March by the defection of two
Kong Le battalions under Col. Deuane.
4. The first significant Pathet Lao military
move was a successful attack on Kong Le's Xieng
Khouang headquarters on 5-6 April. Under continuing
Pathet Lao pressure, Kong Le gave up Ban Ban, Khang
Khay, and Phong Savan northeast of the Plaine along
Route 7, Tha Thom southeast of the Plaine, and was
forced to pull his headquarters back to Muong Phanh
on the western side of the Plaine. (Tha Thom,
DIA review(s) completed.
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however, is reportedly now secured by Lao army troops.)
The principal Plaine des Jarres airfield now is sub-
ject to interdiction by the Pathet Lao. Kong Le,
dependent on air support, is restricted to a strip
at Muong Phanh and another at his rearward base,
Muong Kheung north of the Plaine.
5. In the past month the Pathet Lao have pushed
neutralist forces out of Muong Phine, Mahaxay, and
Lak Sao, towns in south-central Laos astride or near
the routes through Laos from North Vietnam into South
Vietnam. Nhommarath, the main neutralist position
in this area, has also been largely evacuated. Shell-
ing has been resumed in the Plaine, where neutralist
positions on the southern and northern edges are
under attack.
6. In northern Laos, the relatively independ-
ent neutralist General Khamouane has 2,000 troops
centered around Phong Saly but has refused to move
to Kong Le's assistance. Rightist General Phoumi,
however, has moved five infantry battalions, weap-
ons, supplies, officers and technicians to the Plaine
des Jarres to support Kong Le. Pathet Lao leader
Prince Souphannouvong has taken advantage of this
movement, and of the use of US commercial planes to
help supply Kong Le, to assume the public stance of
the injured party in the Plaine des Jarres fighting
and pose unacceptable conditions for new talks with
Premier Souvanna.
7. The fighting in the Plaine des Jarres has
been neither major nor severe, but its implications
are serious. The Pathet Lao have agreed to sever-
al temporary cease-fires, but continue to "nibble"
at Kong Le positions while conducting sweeps against
some 6,000 Meo tribal guerrillas attempting to dis-
rupt Pathet Lao lines of communication around the
fringes of the Plaine and along the roads back to
North Vietnam. Kong Le's plans to counterattack
to regain his position have either been blunted at
the outset or called off by the reluctance of Sou-
vanna to give his endorsement. As long as the
Pathet Lao nibbling is successful, the Communists
would see little need for a full-scale resumption
of civil war.
8. As long as Souvanna and Souphannouvong,
agreed in principle on the need for talks, remain
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at odds over conditions, prospects for a negotiated
settlement are remote. The gap between Souvanna
and his neutralists on the one hand and the Commu-
nists on the other is widening. Hanoi refers to
the dissidents who defected from Kong Le as the
"true neutralists," and Souvanna in early June for
the first time charged publicly that North Vietnam-
ese are fighting on the Pathet Lao side. The neu-
tralist premier now threatens to dismiss his abortive
coalition cabinet of all three factions, and form
a new government without Pathet Lao representation.
Any estimate
of the total, however, can more than ex-
trapolation or projection from this information.
We estimated that there were 10,000 North Vietnam-
ese in Laos when the Geneva agreement was concluded
in July, 1962. Some 5,000 were withdrawn in the
ensuing three months, largely to bivouac areas just
across the border from which they could return easily,
quickly, and largely unobserved. Some have probably
done so since the resumption of fighting in the
Plaine des Jarres. The Defense Intelligence Order
of Battle for North Vietnamese in Laos has just
been raised to 8,000.
11. Our present Order of Battle for Laos shows
50,000 Laotian army forces, 17,000 Meo guerrillas,
3,500 Kong Le forces, and 2,000 questionable neu-
tralists of Khamouane, against 19,500 Pathet Lao,
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8,000 North Vietnamese, and about 450 dissident
neutralists. In the Plaine des Jarres an estimated
2,000 Laotian army forces, 2,000 Kong Le, and 6,000
Meo--a total of 10,000--confront 4,000 Pathet Lao,
some 1,500 North Vietnamese, and the 450 dissidents--
a total of 5,950. The Communist forces are better
organized and better supplied, being able to rely
on road transportation with the monsoon season
starting.
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