THE SITUATION IN THE PHILIPPINES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00472A000600060005-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 9, 2001
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: December 22, 1965
• Content Type: IM

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OCI No. 2958/65
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
office of Current intelligence
22 December 1965
INTr LIGENCE MEMORANDUM
The Situation in the Philippines
1. The tradition of friendship and cooperation
between the Philippines and the United States is
expected to continue under the administration of
Ferdinand E. Marcos. Following his victory at the
polls on 9 November, Marcos noted that "a real roes
reservoir of good will" prevails in
toward the United States,
afterward: "There?s no problem between us that can-
not be solved easily."
2. Philippine foreign policy has been.closely
The Philippine
attuned to that of the United States.
Government maintains no diplomatic trade
with any Communist country,
supported the anti-Communist policies of the United
States. The Macapagal administration refused to ecause
recognize Western-sponsored Malaysia, however, bed stat
of a Philippine claim to Sabah. Marcos that be wants to "normalize" relations with Kuala
Lumpur, and it is presumed that he will exten~guration.
recognition to Malaysia shortly
3. Philippine leaders have supported US policies
in South Vietnam, but have provided only limited tech-
President
nical assistance and no combat personnel.
Macapagal and the legislature discussee thesfeasibility
of sending 2,000 combat troops,
Representatives approved the measure, utntheedecisionlista-
was then deferred because of opposition
with
controlled Senate and increasing preoccupation the election campaign. Under persistent quMsttioning
by an American journalist,
said recently that he intends to recommend to Congress
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and his own Nacionalista Party that this expeditionary
force be dispatched. The US is now pressing the
Philippine Government to implement these plans, while
at the same time negotiating for the selection of
Manila as one of several rest and rehabilitation
(R & p)sites icombat forces
accede Vietnam. these
Philippine leaders probably will
requests, but not with the dispatch desired by the
United States.
4. Without detailed elaboration, Marcos stated
recently that he desires some "minor" changes in
certain Philippine-US arrangements. These arrange-
ments include the use of Subic Bay by large US
vessels, "particularly atomic ships," Philippine-
US economic and commercial relations, the status
of US military bases and personnel in the Philippines
and the operational use of the bases. These matters
will be explored in more detail after the inauguration.
5. Despite generally close and equitable relations,
critics of the US will continue to accentuate differences
and foster popular opposition to the United States.
Most of their propaganda is likely to focus, as in
the past, on the economic and military relationships
between the two countries. Other sources of misunder-
standing which they will exploit with limited .success
are rising Philippine nationalism, which often is
interpreted as anti-Americanism, the Philippine desire
for closer identification with the emerging Afro-
Asia.snations, and sensitivity to any indications that
Philippine interests are being subordinated to those
of the United States. Notwithstanding the activities
of the extremists and the presence of several sources
of friction, Philippine-US relations are expected to
remain fundamentally satisfactory because of the con-
tinued economic and military dependence of the Philip-
pines upon the United.States and the demonstrated will-
ingness of both countries to negotiate and resolve
outstanding differences.
6. Marcos' victory must be attributed chiefly
to Macapagal's failure to initiate and implement badly
need socio-economic reforms. The Land Reform Law
of 1963, for example, has never really benefited the
peasantry because of a lack of trained administrative
personnel and finances, as well as the absence of
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serious intent to implement it by the Macapagal admin-
istration.. In the absence of these reforms, and the
persistence of such problems as unemployment and under-
employment, and smuggling and banditry, public dis-
content is likely to increase. In turn, this discontent
will be exploited by the heretofore miniscule Com-
munist and leftist elements in the country.
7. At present, there are no serious security
threats in the Philippines. The Communist-led insur-
gent "Huks" (People's Liberation Army), having a hard-
core total of 100-150 members and an active mass base
of possibly 2,000 in Central Luzon, lack the capability
to challenge the government by armed force. Instead,
they stage isolated raids and force the government
to maintain a substantial security force in Central
Luzon. There are an estimated 1,500 Communists among; the
Chinese community in the Philippines with approximately the
t
i
e
tu
same number of sympathizers, but they do not const
hreat to the government.
8. It is probable that Communist-leftist-ultra-
nationalist elements will take advantage of the US
delegation's arrival in Manila for the Philippine
inaugural ceremonies to demonstrate against the United
States and US policies. Nevertheless, they probably
will be unable to mount a demonstration of impressive
proportions. Earlier efforts to generate mass dem-
onstrations, using as a pretext isolated incidents
at US military bases in which trespassers were killed,
were not notably successful. Some 800-1,000 persons
did participate last June in a demonstration against
Philippine aid to Vietnam and against US policies
there, but it was generally quiet and orderly. Finally,
those who would demonstrate against the United States
under different circumstances might now decline on
the ground that such action would compromiise
dignity of the occasion and embarrass the
administration.
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9. Although heavily dependent upon the United
States for training and equipment, the Philippine
armed forces are capable of dealing with routine
security threats. Total military.personnel streng h
is distributed as follows: Army-14,000; Navy--,400;
Air Force--8,200; and Constabulary (fourth branch oT
the armed forces)--15,000. Under the Mutual Defense
Philippines
Treaty of
sponsthe iblity e of e thof the e Philippine Government
the joint re re p
and the United States.
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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
THE SITUATION IN THE PHILIPPINES
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Office, of Current Intelligence
23
cQC'UMENTN?, 5
1`I+ CHANGE IN CLASS, L
1! E~ CLASSIFIED
CI.r%SS. CHANGE() TO: TS S C
rJFXT REV1E'4 DATE:
AUTI-%: HR 70-2
LATE:. -----1tEV1EWER:
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
$ LIG
STATES OF
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22 December 1965
OCI No. 2958/65
Copy No.
 Approved I 1Release 2001/11/20: CIA-RDP79TOO*-OA000600060005-5
This Document contains information affecting the Na-
tional Defense of the United States, within the mean-
ing of Title 18, Sections 793 and 794, of the U.S. Code, as
amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents
to or receipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited
by law. The reproduction of this form is prohibited.
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REQUESTED BY
PURPOSE
DESIRED LENGTH
SPECIAL DISSEM :I S
COORDINATION STATINTL
OUTSIDE OCI
ASSIGNED TO
OAD REVIEW
1. O/DCI _ 4. CS/II
2. O/DDI
3. O/ADCI
5. DAY/SIDO
GRAPHICS?
DUE DATE:
6. WA 7. AA 8. SSBA
P/A
P/A
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OcX No. 2958/65 DATED 22 D CEMER 1965
siTu TTON iv ME P LIPPI
CI I . v SIDE!
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