THE INDIA-PAKISTAN SITUATION (REPORT #19 - AS OF 6:00 A.M. EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00472A001500010019-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 24, 2006
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: September 8, 1965
• Content Type: IM

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OCI No. 1959/65
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Current Intelligence
S September 1965
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
DIA review(s) completed.
State Department review
completed
The India-Pakistan Situation
(Report#19 -lAs~yof~~~~ M.~EDT)
1? New Delhi radio this morning claims that
Indian forces have struck across the West Pakistan
border from the Indian state of Rajasthan, The
alleged new thrust is about 500 miles south of the
fighting in the Punjab and has as its target the
Pakistani city of Hyderabad, Sind. This is a desert
area very lightly defended by Pakistan, and it :is
doubtful if the Indian thrust is much mare than a
brigade-sized diversion from the Punjab, where
fighting has apparently stabilized a few miles in-
side the Pakistan border.
2. India asserts the new drive into Sind is
in retaliation for the Pakistan navy's shelling of
a small Indian military installation south of Kutch
on the Arabian Sea, some 200 miles east of Karachi,
3. Pakistan alleged this morning that Indian
paratroopers were dropped in the Lahore area last
night, but that they are being mopped up.
4. There is still no confirmation of yesterday's
press reports that Indian forces invaded East Pakistan.
Ba is an a en s ast akis an with a sing a ivision
plus armed police, totaling no more than 22,000,
wile Indian forces now in a position to threaten the
a?r ea total around FiO, 000.
5. Ln the air war, India has admitted the loss
of eight aircraft,while Pakistan reports the loss of
six. US military sources in Pakistan report the
OSD & DOS & DIA review(s) completed.
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air force is maintaining an absolute maximum sortie
rate at this time, Included in Pakistan's admitted
losses are one F-104 and one B-57; the rest are
presumably F-S6s. Pakistan continues to claim the
destruction, on the ground, of more Indian MIG-21s
(12) than India is credited with having. at the ready.
Reporting on 'the actual targets hit in the last day
or two continues to be confused. Pakistan has
officially denied Indian charges that Pakistani air-
craft bombed New Delhi early this morning.. The
Indians, meanwhile, have denied Pakistan charges of
indiscriminate bombing, contending that Indian
targets thus far have been solely military. The US
Embassy Office in Rawalpindi, however, refutes this
Indian claim by noting that the attack on Pindi
yesterday by Indian aircraft was "obviously a ter-
rorist tactic" against the civil population. New
Pakistani air attacks on Indian airfields in Punjab
and Rajasthan were reported last night,.
6. The US Defense Attachd in New Delhi has
reported the movement of a probable SAM convoy in
the vicinity of Delhi's Palam airport yesterday.
7. Naval warfare may soon be added to the
picture? One of India's two light cruisers, in
company with two destroyer-types, is reported steam-
ing from Bombay to the Karachi area where they will
take up station in international waters. The Indian
aircraft carrier VIKRANT (CVS) is reported steaming
south in the Arabian Sea, bound for eastern India
and the Bay of Bengal, where she will join up with
other units of the fleet earlier deployed to East
Pakistan waters. Pakistan`s nav is alread at sea
in the Karachi area.
~, The US Military Supply Mission in New Delhi,
reporting on estimates hastily put together on India`s
ammunition supply situation, suggests that the Indian
Army ammo stocks are sufficient for about three months
for units now facing Pakistan, although some shortages
in certain calibres may occur before then. This
assumes a minimum reserve stock for possible use against
the Chinese. The estimate did not include Indian Air
Force ordnanceu
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9, The British have again weighed in with both
sides to stop the fighting. Moreover, a letter from
Wilson to Shastri specifically has asked assurances
that UK arms aid is not being used against Pakistan.
US Embassy New Delhi, which notes that Indians are
reacting badly to current British efforts for failing
to distinguish between Indian and Pakistani re-
sponsibility for the current crisis, suggests this
latest approach will accentuate anti-British feeling
in official circles in India..
10. UN Secretary General Thant arrived in London
this morning en route to South Asia. His firs t: stop
will be Karachi from which he will then move on to
11. Pakistan has struck out thus far in attempt-
ing to mobilize support among its CENTO and SEATO
allies. Communist China, Indonesia, and Albania have,
however, been lending strong propaganda support for
Pakistan's case, and a high-level Pakistani claims
Djakarta will also send "aircraft.."
12. Communist China and the USSR are adopting
widely oaring positions on the conflict.
13. The Chinese Government statement broadcast
on 7 September takes a more menacing line than
Peking's initial coverage of the situation. The
Chinese refer threateningly to alleged Indian "in-
trusions and provocations" along the frontier, and
note specifically that Indians are "entrenched on
Chinese territory" but Peking goes no further than
a declaration that the Chinese are "now closely fol-
lowing developments" and "strengthening defenses and
heightening alertness" along China's borders.
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14, In Moscow an authoritative TASS statement
rather impartially blamed both India and Pakistan
for aggravating a situation that "cannot benefit
either side," but also delivered an implicit re-
buke to Peking for its position on the crisis.
The statement criticized those "outside forces"
trying to prevent good relations between India
and Pakistan and for setting them at loggerheads.
In contrast to Communist China's denunciation of UN
involvement in the crisis, the statement notes Soviet
support for the 4 and 6 September UN security
council resolutions and urged both countries to
immediately stop military operations and to withdraw
their troops behind the 1949 UN cease-fire line.
Moscow's limited room for maneuver in the situation
was reflected by a cautious offer of the Soviet
Union's "good offices" if both sides deemed it use-
ful in their efforts to resolve the conflict peace-
fully.
a. The Pakistani aircraft which India brought
down in the Delhi area yesterday was a C-130.
b. Dacca re orts bulk of o ulation relatively
unexcited and not
convinced a hostilities in the East Pakistan area
are inevitable. Pakistani fighters are reported much
in evidence--there is probably no more than a
squadron in East Pakistan--and army units are:.reported
taking up positions identical with those assumed in
the Rann of Kutch crisis, that is they are preparing
for an attack from the north, parallel to the river
axes, rather than from the west. There are no reports
of Hindu-Muslim communal violence. Dacca recommends
the evacuation of American women and children, none-
theless.
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