THE INDIA-PAKISTAN SITUATION (REPORT #43 - AS OF 6:00 A.M. EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00472A001500020001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 16, 1965
• Content Type: IM

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Current Intelligence
16 September 1J65
INTELLIGENCE MEMOR,AND~3M
India-Pakistan Situation
(Report #43 - As of 6000 A,M. EDT)
1. There is virtually no fresh information on the
fighting. A lull is apparently in progress on all fronts,
probably induced in large part by the need on both sides
to regroup and sort out logistics problems. Peshawar
was bombed again last night.
2. Pakistan rejected Secretary General U Thant's
proposal of a cease-fire to take effect this morning in
a letter to Thant received in New York last night.
Indian reaction to this development was a foreign minis-
try statement that the war would continue with "unabated
vigor."
3. Commenting on the Pakistani position regarding
a solution to the conflict, the US Embassy in Karachi
comments that the Pakistanis would now probably accept
a cease-fire that fell short of its standard demand for
a withdrawal of all forces from Kashmir and a subsequent
plebicite in three months since the primary Pakistani
objective, which was to crest a situation which would
force international consideration of the Kashmir ques-
tion, has long since been accomplished, Ambassador
McConaughy believes that the exact terms of an armistice
could quickly be arranged so far as Pakistan is con-
cerned if the Pakistanis felt they had a reasonable
assurance that their basic aims regarding a Kashmir
settlement and long-term security vis-a~vis India
State Department review completed
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would be advanced. Such assurances have not been
spelled out but would certainly preclude a re-turn to the
status quo ante and would probably prove unacceptable to
India at this time.
4. The Ambassador believes that the Pakistani
relationship with Communist China does not inhibit Paki-
stani flexibility on Kashmir, but notes that Pakistani
terms regarding a settlement of the dispute will appear
quite reasonable if the Pakistanis do well militarily,
but will seem far less reasonable if the Indians appear
to be winning in the field.
5. In a conversation with Ambassador McConaughy, the
Iranian foreign minister reported that Ayub, in his dis-
cussions with the Turls.s and Iranians on 14-15 September,
appeared flexible, forthcoming, and highly desirous of
reaching a fuller understanding with the US. Ayub
reportedly very largely agreed with Turkish and Iranian
representations that the fighting must be stopped before
Pakistan's military potential was wholly dissipated.
6. The Pakistani president also reportedly proposed
an Iranian mission to Moscow, London and Washington to
make clear the Pakistani position in the dispute. This
mission, which has yet to receive the approval of the
Shah, would attempt to set the stage for direct US-
Pakistani talks "ranging across the entire board." Ayub
reportedly would like full face-to-face discussions and
complete restoration of traditional US-Pakistani rela-
tions.
7. Both Ayub and Foreign Minister Bhutto reportedly
were highly gratified by Secretary RuskPs statement on
Kashmir yesterday and by the US role in keeping the con-
flict from spreading to East Pakistan. According to the
Iranian foreign minister, Ayub said that Pakistan was
"prepared if necessary to be a satellite of the US'' as
long as this did not involve becoming a satellite of
India in collaboration with the US.
?3. One aspect of what appears to be the present
Pakistani concern is the POL situation.
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The embassy estimates that:Pa.k~t.arii:PQL
s ocis are only adequate for four to five days starting
14 September, although several tankers are due in Karachi
between 18 and 21 September.
9. A London committee of supplier companies is
reportedly working on insuring continuing POL supplies,
reports indicate that Iran is consi eying an em argo of
oil supplies to India.
10. A' Turkish foreign ministry official present at the
talks between Turkish Premier Urguplu and Pakistani Air
Marshal Asghar Khan told the US Embassy in Ankara that
Urguplu categorically stated that Turkey could not provide
Pakistan with planes, pilots, and spare parts, but did
assure Asghur Khan that as much assistance as possible
from purely Turkish resources would be given, However, an
official of the Indian foreign ministry has indicated that
India believes that Turkey is willing to provide Pakistan
with spare parts for F-S6s, radar devices, bazookas,
mortars, and shells, TYie Indians also claim that small
arms have already been flown into Pakistan from Turkey,
and that a considerable quantity of small arms and amrr~uni-
tion, including? bazookas, antiaircraft guns, and anti-
tank ammunition is on 1;he way by ship,
11. In Indonesia, members of the government-
sponsored youth front have "taken over" the Indian con-
sulate in Medan, North Sumatra, while in West Java all
Indian property has been placed under. government "super-
vision." Meanwhile, India has officially informed Indo-
nesia that any military or other help rendered Pakistan
would be considered an act hostile to Tndia.
12. The New Delhi Embassy believes that Defense
Minister Chavan, along with Shastri, has scored consider-
able gains in political standing as a result of the con-
flict. Chavan is widely regarded as playing a role
almost equal to Shastri himself. As government spokes-
man on military affairs he has gained widespread publicity
and is now becoming as well-known as more senior figures
in the Congress Party hierarchy.
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14. The Indian press reports that the West Bengal
Government has reduced rations of food grains by two ounces
due to transportation difficulties. The US consulate
general in Calcutta reports that communal tensions in West
Bengal remain very high although there has as yet been
no serious outbreak of violence.
15. The Pakistani-controlled Azad Kashmir Govern-
ment has asked all retired officers, noncoms and men of
the Azad Kashmir armed forces to report for duty at once.
16. According to wire service reports, Indian
officials have been "stunned" by Secretary R,usk's comments
yesterday endorsing the idea of a pleb:icite in Kashmir as
part of an overall India-Pakistan settlement.
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
Order of Battle
~( Line of confrontation
SECRET
INDIA
CHINA
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