THE SITUATION IN VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00826A001000010009-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: July 4, 1966
• Content Type: IM

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
THE, SITUATION IN VIETNAM
Information as of 1600.
4 3u1y-1966
State Dept. review completed-
PREPARED FOR THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
FURTHER DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION
CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT AUTHORIZED
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A Buddhist Institute communique of 3 July indi-
cates a suspension of opposition to the Ky govern-
ment. The latter, meanwhile, is still preparing a
cabinet reshuffle, after last-minute delays prompted
by concern. over moderate Buddhist reaction. In. North
Vietnam, French and Chinese press sources report that
the Hanoi regime has ordered the evacuation of all
nonessential:. personnel from the DRV capital.
I. The Military Situation in South Vietnam:
Several significant contacts with Viet ong NV
forces were reported over the weekend, including
two attacks on Special Forces Camps near the Cam-
bodian border (Paras. 1-6). Several major US opera-
tions were terminated and others were initiated over
the weekend (Paras. 7-9).
II. Political Developments in South Vietnam: A
Buddhist Institute communique of July-marks a sus-
pension of opposition to the Ky government, apparently
to permit moderate Tam Chau to try to work out a final
accommodation (Paras.l-2). Premier Ky reportedly
ordered the release today of almost 200 supporters of
the recent Buddhist struggle, but the government still
contemplates punishment for general officers involved
in the I Corps dissidence (Para.3). The government
expects to announce composition of a military-civilian
advisory council on 5 July, but announcement of cabinet
changes may be further delayed as a result of internal
objections and maneuvering (Paras. 5-6). Political
activity on. the September election is increasing as
the deadline for filing candidacies for the constituent
assembly nears (Para. 6).
III. Military Developments in North Vietnam:
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Pilots report destroying a SAM site north of Hanoi on
3 July (Para. 8 )
Air strike on Do Son. POL facility reported (Para. 7 .
IV. Other Communist Military Developments: There
is nothing o significance to report.
V. Communist Political Developments: Former
French diplomat can SaiDteny arrives in Hanoi. He
hopes to talk with DRV leaders and will probably dis-
cuss the issue of negotiations (Paras. 1-2). Chinese
Communist Government statement on aid to Vietnam
evaluated (Para. 3). North Korean pledge to send
"volunteers" to Vietnam discussed (Para. 4). Hanoi
propaganda terms reports of a US-DRV naval engage-
ment "fallacious" and claims US attacked DRV fishing
boats in North Vietnamese waters (Para. 5). French
and Chinese reports of the evacuation of Hanoi indi-
cate a stepped-up effort by the Hanoi regime to rid
the city of nonessentah_ elements (Paras. 6-9).
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1. US forces participated in nine of the 30
ground operations of battalion size or larger which
were in progress over the weekend. Significant con-
tact with enemy forces was established on several oc-
casions in widely scattered parts of the country.
2. On 2 July, elements of the US 1st Infantry
Division in Operation EL PASO established heavy contact
with at least two enemy battalions about three miles
from the Cambodian border in Binh Long Province. Three
US battalions were committed to the engagement. US
casualties were 17 killed and 40 wounded as against
Viet Cong casualties of 78 killed and two captured.
Cumulative results of this search and destroy opera-
tion which began on 2 June now stand at 100 Americans
killed and 305 wounded. South Vietnamese casualties
are 22 killed and 71 wounded. Communist casualties to
date total 615 killed, 29 captured, and 62 VC suspects
taken. In addition, 125 individual weapons and 30 crew-
served weapons have been captured and 1,601 tons of
rice have been confiscated.
3. Shortly after dark on 2 July, an enemy force
of unknown size attacked the Plei Djereng Special
Forces Camp with mortar-and small arms fire. The attack=-
ers were driven off by artillery and tactical air sup-
port fire with unreported results. Three friendly
casualties were reported at the camp which is located
about 27 miles northwest of Pleiku city. Attacks
against this camp and other targets in Pleiku Province
have been expected for some weeks now.
4. Elsewhere in South Vietnam, elements of the
US 173rd Airborne Brigade in Operation YORKTOWN re-
ported contacting two enemy companies about 30 miles
east of Saigon. Results of this engagement included
four Americans killed and eight wounded as against
15 VC killed.
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5. On 3 July, a company of the 25th Infantry
Division participating in operation PAUL REVERE en-
gaged an enemy unit, estimated to be a company, for
seven hours near the Cambodian border some 35 miles
northwest of Pleiku. Preliminary reports indicate
US casualties in this engagement were 17 killed and
32 wounded. Enemy losses were 23 killed (body count).
Cumulative results of Operation PAUL REVERE, a Cam-
bodian border surveillance operation begun on 9 May,
now stand at 45 Americans killed and 268 wounded.
ARVN forces have sustained 16 killed and 41 wounded
while total Viet Cong losses number 518 killed (body
count) and 71 captured. In addition, 191 individual
and 12 crew-served VC weapons have been captured.
6. On 3 July, an estimated VC company attacked
the Trai Bi Special Forces Camp, located about ten
miles north of Tay Ninh city and some eight miles from
the Cambodian border, with mortars, automatic weapons,
and small arms fire. The camp defenders beat off the
attack with artillery barrages and the VC broke contact
after about an hour of fighting. No casualties were
reported.
Initiation and Termination of Significant US Operations
7. Two major ground operations ended on 1 July.
In NATHAN HALE, a search and destroy operation begun on
18 June in Phu Yen Province, cumulative casualties in-
cluded 62 Americans killed, 333 wounded, and four miss-
ing. Enemy casualties were 459 killed, 36 captured,
and 94 suspects detained. Enemy equipment captured
included 131 individual and 19 crew-served weapons, and
177 tons of rice. Six battalions of the 1st Air Cavalry
Division and a battalion of the 101st Airborne Division,
which were committed to NATHAN HALE, initiated US Opera-
tion HENRY CLAY on 1 July. This operation, which should
last about five days, is to employ reconnaissance-in-
force techniques in western Phu Yen and eastern Phu on
provinces. Only light contact has been reported thus
far. Two North Vietnamese regiments--the 18B and 95th--
plus two VC battalions are estimated to be in the area
of operations.
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8. Operation OAKLAND also ended on 1 July with-
out significant contact. Final casualties are: two
ARVN killed, six USMC, and ten ARVN wounded; 15 enemy
killed, four captured, and 13 suspects detained.
9. Operation JAY, which began on 24 June, ended
2 July. Cumulative casualties were: 23 US killed,
58 wounded,, 92 enemy killed, six captured, and 18 sus-
pects detained. A combined ARVN-USMC search and de-
stroy__ operat'ion,nicknamed HOLT-LAM SON began in the
same general area of Thua Thien Province-near Hue on
1 July and has thus far reported no contact. Operation
HOLT was initiated on the basis of intelligence gained
from enemy prisoners captured following the unsuccess-
ful ambush of an ARVN battalion on 29 June. The prison-
ers indicated that the base of the 802nd VC Battalion,
the ambushing unit, was located in the area. The opera-
tion is estimated to last four to five days.
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II. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
1. The Buddhist Institute, through a com-
munique issued on 3 July by chairman Tam Chau,
has indicated that it is suspending opposition
to the Ky government pending further determination
of its policy by an extraordinary assembly-of-the
Unified Buddhist Association (UBA). After re-
viewing Buddhist attitudes over the past ten
weeks, the communique` called for "a minimum pe-
riod during which both sides can demonstrate
their good will," and urged "calm and patience"
on the part of the faithful. No specific
demands were made of the government, and there
was no suggestion of earlier calls for the res-
ignations of Ky and Chief of State Thieu.
2. The communique apparently followed meet-
ings on 2 and 3 July of the Institute's execu-
tive council, including consultation with Tri
Quang in his Saigon clinic. Comments of Buddhist
sources suggest that the communique is intended
to confirm` Chau's authority to work out a
final accommodation with the government, and
that the special UBA conference, to take place
in two or three weeks, is partly a device by
Chau to bring additional pressure on Buddhist
militants by dangling a renewed prospect of his
own resignation. There have been hints in the
Buddhist press of a campaign to enable Tri Quang
to end his hunger strike, although a prominent
Buddhist source quotes Quang as saying that he
cannot yet end his fast with mgny of his follow-
ers killed or still in-prison.
3. Presumably as a demonstration of "good
will," Premier Ky on 4 July reportedly authorized
the release of 183 persons detained during the
recent Buddhist "struggle." A high ranking Viet-
namese officer reports that no final decision
was taken at a 30 June meeting concerning the fu-
tures of five generals, including Thi, involved''
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in the I Corps dissidence. Theit cases will be
individually reviewed by minister'of security General
Vien, but all five reportedly will face some
disciplinary action including possible court
martial.
4. Government sources, meanwhile, report
that the-:new-military-civilian advisory council
will be established and--convened on 5 July, after-
repeated postponements because of haggling over
its membership by civilian members of the ruling
Directorate. The council is to have 60 civilian
and 20 military members.
5. It is possible that a pending cabinet
reshuffle may also be announced on the 5th, al-
though deputy premier General Co told the press
today that the cabinet changes would be made
public on 7 July. There are indications that
the delay in the reshuffle was the result of
concern in the Directorate that some of the
proposed changes, which would strengthen Catholic
influence and remove a prominent Buddhist minis-
ter, could jeopardizean accommodation with
Buddhist moderates.
this concern is part y egiti-:
mate, although its principal exponent, General
Co, is motivated primarily by the desire to gain
political support for his own ambitions. I
6. The US Embassy reports that there-'is
now considerable political activity directed to-
ward the September election, as the deadline of
11 July for filing candidacies approaches. De-
spite a strong undercurrent of uncertainty over
the elections and of suspicion over the govern-
ment's manner of organizing them, it appears
that a-number^of prominent politicians, as well
as political and religious groups, are planning
to stand as candidacies or are preparing slates
for list voting the-Saigon area and the provinces.
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Latest POL Strikes
7. US Navy aircraft struck the Do Son POL storage
facility for the second time on 3 July. Pilots reported
excellent hits on two of the POL tanks, although there
were no explosions or other positive indications that
POL was present at the target. Bomb damage photography
has not yet been received.
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8. Pilots from a flight of Air Force F-105
Thunderchiefs reported they completely destroyed a
surface-to-air missile site north of Hanoi on 3 July
after three missiles had been unsuccessfully fired
at them. There are currently 113 SAM sites identi-
fied in North Vietnam. Of these, six have been
abandoned. Despite this large number of sites, many
of which are no more than clearings from which to
fire SAMs, it is still estimated that there is only
enough surface-to-air missile equipment in the DRV to
man from 20 to 25 sites at one time. In the last few
months SAM firings at US aircraft have been almost
totally ineffective.
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port.
IV. OTHER COMMUNIST MILITARY:DEVELOPMENTS
1. There is nothing of significance to re-
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V. COMMUNIST POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
Former French Diplomat Arrives in Hanoi
1, Jean Sainteny, ex-cabinet minister and for-
mer French high commissioner in Hanoi arrived in
the North Vietnamese capital on 2 July at the in-
vitation of the North Vietnamese Government. Prior
to his arrival in Hanoi, Sainteny made stops in
China, Cambodia, and Laos. While in Vientiar,e?he
discussed his mission in an impromptu meeting of
diplomatic personnel. He explained that while he
was carrying no special message from De Gaulle to
Ho Chi Minh, he was making the trip with the French
President's blessing. Sainteny expressed the hope
that he would be able to meet and establish a
"candid dialogue" with Ho and Premier Pham Van Dong
whom he characterized as "old acquaintances." The
French representative was, however, not optimistic
about establishing any meaningful discussion with
the North Vietnamese leaders claiming that the re-
cent POL strikes by the US had complicated his task,
2. Sainteny's visit in Hanoi is scheduled to last
one week during which time he will probably dis-
cuss a wide range of topics with the North Vietnamese
leaders including the subject of negotiations. The
Hanoi leadership apparently views Sainteny's visit
as an opportunity for them to restate for somewhat
sympathetic ears their standard position on settling
the war as well as a chance to display the effects of
the American air raids.
H
Chinese Government. Statement on Aid-to Vietnam
3. All Peking papers on 4 July highlighted the
Chinese Government statement of the preceding day
which appear designed to create the impression that
China is reacting forcefully to the US air strikes
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against petroleum installations near Hanoi and Hai-
phong. However, while asserting that China is now
"freed from any bounds or restrictions in rendering
support and aid to Vietnam," the statement follows
the line taken by Peking since last fall in omitting
any mention of Chinese "volunteers." Moreover, it
refers to previous Peking pronouncements on Vietnam
which implied that China would not take the lead in
initiating a war with the US, suggesting that Peking
does not view the latest developments as-requiring a
revision of its present policy toward the war,
North Korean Statement on Volunteers__ ..
4, On 1 July, Pyongyang radio broadcast a North
Korean Foreign Ministry statement denouncing the re-
cent strikes on POL facilities in North Vietnam, The
statement also contained a pledge to dispatch "volun-
teers" to North Vietnam but omitted the usual qualifier
of doing so only when asked by Hanoi. In the past,
Pyongyang has generally taken a more threatening
stance on the volunteer issue than other members of the
bloc, In a speech last September DPRK Vice-Premier
Kim Kwang-hyop asserted that North Korea would "render
all necessary support, material, and morale, including
the dispatch of volunteers to the "fighting Vietnamese
people," None of the North Korean threats to send
volunteers have been borne out and it is unlikely that
in this latest instance Pyongyang will unilaterally
send troops to Vietnam. In addition, there is no evi-
dence that Hanoi has requested the dispatch of any
foreign volunteers to Vietnam.
Hanoi Propaganda.on..Naval Engagement
5. North Vietnam's response to the sinking of
three of its motor torpedo boats by US naval aircraft
on 1 July has been a claim that reports of the en-
gagement are "fallacious" and that American aircraft
and warships actually strafed DRV fishing boats
working in DRV territorial waters off Haiphong on
that date. In a 2 July broadcast Hanoi radio claimed
that the "valiant" North Vietnamese Navy had success-
fully driven off the marauders and had damaged one ship
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and hit a plane. The broadcast further asserted that
this "provocative act" was a pretext for further
escalation of the air war and an attempt to "white-
wash marauding activities in the Gulf of North Viet-
nam." In a protest note, to the ICCA the regime
tied this "blatant act of corsair" to the recent
strikes on the Hanoi-Haiphong POL facilities and de-
clared a.t as a further step-up in the war of de-
struction against the DRV.
Evacuation of Hanoi Reported
6. According to French and Chinese press sources
reporting from Hanoi, the North Vietnamese have ordered
an immediate evacuation of nonessential personnel from
the DRV capital city. While no official North Vietnamese
statement on the evacuation has as yet been received,
it appears that the regime may be using the recent strikes
on targets in the Hanoi-Haiphong region as an excuse
for pushing its program of population dispersal from
the capital begun last year after the initiation of the
US air raids.
the movement of diplomatic personnel was restricted and
the number of dependents in the diplomatic community
7. At that time, reports,indicated that the regime
was attempting to move women, children, the elderly and
nonessential males into the countryside. In addition,
curbed. Reports have varied as to the effectivenes
this campaign.
in the last several months have re-
ported seeing numbers of children, women, and old people
on the streets once again.
8. The regime's efforts to disperse the elements
of the population probably reflect a genuine concern
for their safety.' At the same time, by ridding the
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city of nonessential individuals, the government
cuts down on the extent of its civil defense prep-
arations as well as the possibility of general
confusion and panic should the city, in fact,
be bombed.
9. Current estimates of the population of
Hanoi--including its suburbs--range from 750,000
to 1,000,000 inhabitants. There is presently no
hard information on the percentage of the city's
population effected by the previous evacuation
or the one currently under way.
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