INSTABILITY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

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CIA-RDP79T00826A001500010014-4
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RIPPUB
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S
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9
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December 15, 2016
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July 15, 2004
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14
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Publication Date: 
December 9, 1966
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IM
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Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T008264 ron INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM 9 December 1966 No. 1698/66 Copy No. 24 INSTABILITY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : WPMETMA001500010014-4 GROUP I Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826AO01500010014-4 This Document contains information affecting the Na- tional Defense of the United States, within the mean- ing of Title 18, Sections 793 and 794, of the U.S. Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or receipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. The reproduction of this form is prohibited. Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826AO01500010014-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T008264&001500010014-4 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence 9 December 1966 Instability in the Western Hemisphere Summary Instability has long been a factor in the develop- ing countries of the Western Hemisphere. Revolutions, attempts at revolution, or serious disturbances are definite possibilities in nine of the 24 countries on the southern flank of the US. In addition there is sufficient malaise in nearly all of the other coun- tries to cause concern. The factors making for in- stability vary country by country. They include se- vere economic and financial difficulties, ineffective governments and lack of sound leadership, a distaste for the old order of Latin America (military-church- wealthy oligarchical domination), a driving urge for progress in political, economic, and international fields, and active subversive elements which receive encouragement and, in some cases, material support from Cuba. Note: This memorandum was produced solely by CIA. It 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826AP01500010014-4 25X1 Approved For Relea 1. The Tri-Continent Conference held in Havana in January 1966 and subsequent events have made it clear that Cuba continues to devote considerable ef- fort to assisting subversive groups in the hemisphere. Propaganda support for revolution in Latin America emanating from Fidel Castro and other high-level Cuban officials has again reached the crescendo of the early 1960s. Contrary to the Soviet Union's preference for political action, Cuba boldly announced this October the existence in Cuba of a school for guerrilla train- ing of Latin Americans. In addition, Cuba has been caught red-handed in giving material support to the guerrillas in Guatemala and Venezuela in the past few months. 2. Intelligence publications for some time have been highlighting the malaise in the nine countries which are believed to be the most vulnerable to rev- olution or other major disturbances. It is, of course, usually impossible to predict the exact tim- ing of any crisis, and hence to single out which one of these countries will be the next victim of a revolt or other upheaval. The problem areas can be classified according to the nature of the threat and the extent of the danger to US interests should upheavals occur. The following paragraphs describe four basic cate- gories into which it seems useful to divide the coun- tries. 3. In the first category are those countries in which the tenure of the incumbent regime is precarious and in which there are subversive forces capable of precipitating and taking advantage of a breakdown of public order, in one way or another. In general this would be so because of social deprivation and unrest, the lack of strongly established political institu- tions and a moderating middle class, and the lack of reliable or effective security forces. This is not to say that the Communists are capable of seizing power in any of these countries, but only that a situation could readily develop which they could exploit to their considerable advantage. There could be sufficient un- rest in a number of these countries to create pressure for direct United Stated involvement, even extending to the use of troops either unilaterally or under the auspices of the OAS. The countries which at present appear to fit into this grouping are listed in approxi- mate order of the estimated danger. 25X1 Approved For Relea4e 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T008?6A001500010014-4 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826 001500010014-4 a. Guatemala. President Mendez has been un- able to cope effectively with Guatemala's insurgency problems. He continues under pressure from both the right and the left. Communist guerrillas still oper- ate flagrantly in the capital and in the countryside despite some minor successes of the military in the hills. b. Haiti. Despite recent arrests and mili- tary purges, Duvalier still faces plotting and possi- ble further outbreaks of violence. There are signs of disaffection among some elements of the armed forces and of continuing public unrest. Should the Du- valier dictatorship collapse, anarchy could well en- sue. The Communists are not capable of seizing power, even in such circumstances, but could gain influence by performing sorely needed organizational and adminis- trative services for any successor regime. c. Panama. Panama's fragile political order is susceptible to exploitation by ultranationalists and Communists. The demagogic Arnulfo Arias, ambitious to be the next president, is encouraging antigovernment ac- tivity and is said to be courting some radical leftists. There is a constant danger that an unforeseen incident could mushroom into a major crisis which could give net gains to the Communists or other anti-US ultrana- tionalist elements. d. Dominican Republic. The potential for chaos is still high in the Dominican Republic. The assumption of control of ex-President Bosch's political party--the opposition PRD--by radical elements adds to the strains already present because of the economic situation, labor unrest, and some Communist subversion. e. Guyana. Now that the British troops have left this new country, Guyana is vulnerable to public disorder which could strain the capability of the in- experienced Guyanese Defense Force. The largest po- litical party is led by pro-Communist Cheddi Jagan, who could shift to violent tactics again should it ap- pear that he will be frustrated in the 1968 election. f. Bolivia. President Barrientos' rivalry with General Ovando, which bears the seed of a possible 25X1 Approved For ReleasIe 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T008?6A001500010014-4 Approved For R (ease 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826 001500010014-4 25X1 split in the military, labor unrest, and persistent subversive activities add to the already unstable situation in Bolivia. The potential for widespread civil disorders exists. 4. The second category includes countries in which the major threat is a coup or an attempt at one, but in which the military establishments or other groups which are basically willing to cooperate with the US would be involved and would probably be capable of maintaining control. a. Ecuador. The turbulent political condi- tions under w icy h the eighteenth constituent assembly is meeting are likely to continue for some time. The country is faced with a financial crisis. With the country subject to a provisional president and lacking effective government, the armed forces are poised to intervene if there appears to be a breakdown in the political system. The left is beginning to make an effort to bring about a change of government. b. Costa Rica. Coalition President Trejos and the opposition National Liberation Party, which controls congress, are unwilling to compromise. As a result the country is suffering for want of effective social, and economic programs. Trejos' lack of politi- cal experience is compounding the difficulties. In- fluential groups, the most powerful of which are pro- US, could be disposed to take drastic action to fill the political vacuum if conditions continue to de- teriorate. c. Honduras. The lackluster regime of Presi- dent Lopez has created dissatisfaction in important sectors of the population. 5. The countries discussed in the above para- graphs are all ranked in a different listing below according to a judgment of the degree of the criticality of the situations in each country at this time. Of 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826Ap01500010014-4 25X1 Approved For Relea course any such "fever chart" will change even over the short run as certain governments come to grips with the factors which bring about the instability or as other governments become weaker. a. Ecuador f. Costa Rica b. Guatemala g. Honduras c. Haiti h. Guyana d. e. Panama Dominican Republic i. Bolivia 6. A third category includes countries which are likely to undergo periods of serious stress for various economic or political reasons. In a number of these the problems are chronic e.g., labor unrest, severe economic pressures, racial conflicts. However, the governments in these countries at the moment are suf- ficiently in control to prevent a strong threat to stability from developing and no major danger to US interests is now foreseen. In order of the severity of the strains within each, the following seems an ap- propriate ranking (with major factors for unrest noted), although here also certain countries will move up or down the scale as internal conditions improve or de- teriorate. a. Uruguay (crippling strikes, economic de- terioration, inept leadership). b. El Salvador (Elections in 1967 causing some unrest and disaffection in military). c. Colombia (Public frustration with national front government, Communist insurgency). d. Venezuela (Communist terrorism and guer- rilla activity, military grumbling). e. Brazil (Labor and student dissatisfaction, extremely vocal opposition). f. Argentina (Adjustment to new military gov- ernment, Peronist opposition). 25X1 Approved For Reloase 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T008264001500010014-4 Approved For Relea4 g. Jamaica (Social unrest, outbreaks of hooliganism, strikes, aging political leaders). h. Nicaragua (Possibilities of disorders surrounding upcoming 1967 elections for president). i. Trinidad-Tobago (Negro - East Indian rivalries, high unemployment). j. Barbados (High employment--20-25 percent-- overpopulation). 7. The final category of countries in the Western Hemisphere would include those in which the factors for stability clearly far outweigh those for insta- bility. This list includes Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, and Peru. The Communist dictatorship of Cuba also falls in this grouping. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826AO015000P0014-4 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826AO01500010014-4 Next 51 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2004/07/28 : CIA-RDP79T00826AO01500010014-4