THE FRENCH NATIONAL LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00826A001700010019-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 25, 2001
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: March 2, 1967
• Content Type: MEMO

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2 March 1967
tative Zinc.
ctions will hold on 5 and 12 March to
place the first Pranch National Assembly to complete its
fire-year tern since before World War ll. The number of
deputies will be increased from 482 to 487a as a result
of the creation of now constituencies the Paris area.
Five national political groupnta as well as a number of
minor parties and independent candidates will compete for
National Asoombly seats.
. Running under a Fifth Republic label are the
official Gaullist party, the Union for the New Republic
and Democratic labor Party (U ); the Gaullist-
allied Independent Republicans of former finance Mm -
inter Valery Giscard d'Estain ; and a number of deputies
who consistently supported the government in the last
Assembly. The fifth Republic grouping, like the Commu-
nist Party ().the second major formation--will run
T
didates in every district.
ree other groups are
than; the 75 candidates required for
sional parties entitled to time.
:fled cialista, whose most famous
emier Pierre Melees:-France, with 116
ancoia Mitterrand'* Federation of the
Socialist ft with 430 candidates* and
cratic Center with $Go candidates.
s:t significant of the minor formations is a
4 to gain official endorsement at Fifth Republic
Gaullist grouping composed primarily of those
MUD-IV put_tea will
from French aliland w
1 *arch referenda
territory opts to retain it
eted later if the
nee in a
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e-d in March . A deputy
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candidates. If no candidate in a given constituency re-
ceives 50 percent of the votes on the first ballot--in
1962 only 96 deputies were so elected--a second round is
held in which all candidates in that constituency who
received at least ten percent of the registered vote are
eligible to run again. The critical factor, then, is
which candidates withdraw between rounds.
4. The odds remain slightly in favor of the
Gaulliats retaining their majority but with a loss of
perhaps 10 to 12 percent of their current 280-member
block. However, this estimate could be materially af-
fected by various unresolved factors, including the
continuing high percentage of undecided voters, the
volatility of the French electorate, and the impact of
Gaulle's election-eve TV address. Recent polls show
an over-all drop of 8.5 percent(from 43.5 percent to 37
percent) in the popularity of Gaullist candidates in
the last four-week period, while both Federation and
Communist candidates increased their support. The oppo-
sition, however, has failed effectively to exploit is-
sues on which the Gaulliets are vulnerable--particularly
on issues which affect the voters' pocketbooks--and the
government has skillfully marshalled its massive re-
sources in support of its candidates.
The Gaullists will be particularly affected by
the withdrawal policies which the Center and the PCF
follow. By maintaining all of its candidates on the
second round, regardless of whether they have any chance
of winning, the Center could ensure that large numbers
of its voters do not switch to the Gaullist camp, as
happened in the 1965 presidential. election. L canuet,
however, hopes to work out reciprocal withdrawal arrange-
ments with Gaullist candidates covering a number of
districts. The Gaulliets will also benefit if the PCP
stands by its decision to refuse to withdraw in favor of
any Center candidates. There have been indications, how-
ever, that the PCF may make exceptions to this rule in
a few cases, as it did in the 1962 elections. Mitterand's
Federation will also be greatly affected by FF with-
drawals, because over one half of its deputies owed their
election in 1962 to Communist votes on the second round.
The Communists, who concluded a loose electoral agreement
with the Federation, agreed to withdraw in distric,
where they run behind the Federation. They are not com-
mitted to withdraw, however, in those instances where
their candidates run ahead of the Federation but are
less well placed to defeat the Gaullists.
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Opposition parties are incensed by De Gaulle's
decision to make a final TV address on 4 March after the
campaign officially closest a decision presumably prompted
by the general's alarm over the slippage in Gaullist
standings. Although poll findings suggest that De Gaulle's
February campaign speech had little or no effect in check-
ing the slow but steady Gaullist decline, a well-reasoned
last-minute appeal could swing to the government camp
those voters still sitting on the fence. A swing of a
small percentage of votes, equivalent to a few thousand,
could have changed the results in some 80 to 90 con-
stituencies in 1962.
7. Another factor adding to the uncertainty is
whether the electorate will again, as it did in 1962,
vote in effect for De Gaulle rather than his party, or
whether it will be strongly influenced by local personali
ties and issues, Another unknown is whether those who
vote for opposition candidates on the first round will
s they did in the presidential election--to the
Gaullists on the second round reasoning that this is the
"moment of truth." This factor operated in De Gaulle's
favor during the presidential race, but a significant
number of voters might support the opposition on both
rounds on the ground that they are voting for individual
deputies and not the president of the Republic.
8, Even if the Gaullists tin, their majority
probably be reduced and they will be less responsive to
lie Gaaulle?ss dictates. The Gaullist losses are expected
to come from the ranks of the hard-core elements in the
VNR, thus the voice of C iscard d'Estaing, who has al-
ready indicated areas of divergence from the official
party line.. should be greatly enhanced. It the Fifth
Republic falls just short of an absolute majority, Jean
canuet would be in a hinge position regarding the
formation of a government majority. Before De Gaulle
makes any modifications In his European and Atlantic
policies to entice Lecanuet, however, he can be ex-
pected to try to brazen It out with a minority govern--
ment, confident the opposition will be unable to units
on a censure motion which would oblige the premier to
resign
CONFFDE ] AL
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rirr IWAW
PARTY STRENGTHS IN FRENCH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
Elected November 1962
UNION FOR THE NEW REPUBLIC (UNR)
AND
DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY' (UDT)
DEPUTIES BELONGING TO
SPLINTER PARTIES OR
UNAFFILIATED 16
`These Gaullist parties command a majority because of regular backing from Independent
Republicans and occasional backing from Radicals and Popular Republicans.
MAJOR POLITICAL GROUPINGS IN FRANCE
DATE OF
FORMATION
ORGANIZATIONAL
Al M
ELECTORAL
APPEAL
FEDERATION
OF DEMOCRATIC
AND SOCIALIST LEFT
Socialist Party
Radical Party
Convention of Republican
Institutions
Political clubs
To seek a common program
and electoral strategy, while
allowing participating parties
to preserve separate identities
DEMOCRAYIC CENTER
February 1966
Jean Lecanuet
MRP
Independent Party
Political clubs
To fuse existing parties
into organic union
GAULLIST
"FAMILY"
Jacques Baumel, UNR/UDT
Valery Giscard d'Estaing,
Independent Republicans
UNR
UDT
Independent Republicans
Temporarily organized into
Action Committee for the
Fifth Republic for electoral
purposes
Return to parliamentary
ascendency; program of
wide-ranging economic and
social change; moderate
movement toward more inde-
pendent foreign policy
Abolition of "personal rule";
foreign policy based on
European and Atlantic coop-
eration; moderate forward
movement in economic and
social field
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Institutional stability
embodied in presidential
system; independence in
foreign policy; re-establishment
of French "grandeur";economic
stabilization
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CONFIDENTIAL
2 March 1967
Talking Paper for: "The French National Legislative Elections"
This memo is simply a primer on the forthcoming
French elections (5-12 March). It in possible that
some US officials have been overlooking the possibility
(and only that) that lie Gaulle might slump below an
absolute majority.
Some or all of this material might be found in the
press but perhaps those who have not been reading the
press too carefully on this issue will find this account
useful.
We are prepared to write a memo between rounds about
the options open to Do Gaulle if it looks as though there
is a good chance he will lose his majotity.
Recommend this typescript version with graphic be
CONFIDENTIAL
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