WEEKLY REPORT PREPARED FOR THE SENIOR INTERDEPARTMENTAL GROUP

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00826A003000220001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 2, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 4, 1967
• Content Type: IR

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Report
Weekly Report
Prepared Exclusively 'for the
Senior Interdepartmental Group
Secret
42
4 December 1967
No. 0439/67
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as anmended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law,
rxoirs~ I
1 CEMO l> tHUM AUTOMATIC
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C O N T E N T S
Page
1. Laos ...................................... 1
2. Soviet Trade in Natural Gas ............... 2
3. International Grain Situation ............. 3
4 December 1967
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There are new signs that junior officers are dis-
satisfied with the military leadership in Vientiane.
A number of colonels in the Royal Armed Forces
have been circulating a petition calling for the
creation of two new posts in the cabinet to be filled
by military men, ostensibly for the purpose of in-
creasing coordination between military and civilian
elements in the government.
The real purpose of the petition, however, may
be to pave the way for a shake-up in the top leader-
ship of the armed forces.
the colonels behind the petition are
suggesting that the new posts be filled by Commander
in Chief Ouan and his deputy, Kouprasith. The colonels
are apparently arguing that with Ouan and Kouprasith
kicked upstairs, de facto control of the armed forces
will fall to General Phasouk, a vigorous and popular
regional commander in southern Laos.
The petition has received support from a substan-
tial number of junior officers who have been dis-
gruntled over the venality of Ouan and Kouprasith and
the way they have been prosecuting the war against
the Pathet Lao.
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It is not clear how far the colonels are now will-
ing to press their case. At a minimum, the petition
has revived quiescent political maneuverin in Vien-
tiane.
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The USSR could become a significant exporter of
natural gas to the industrialized countries of West-
ern Europe and Japan as early as 1971 if current
negotiations with Japan, Italy, Austria, and France
are successfully concluded. Negotiations are pres-
ently stalled over price and terms of credit.
By 1975 Soviet exports to Japan may reach two
billion cubic meters of gas, representing 40 percent
of its requirements. Exports to Western Europe may
reach six to eight billion cubic meters, or up to
seven percent of its market.
The USSR is attempting to obtain credits of up
to $485 million in Western Europe and $180 million
from Japan for the purchase of pipe and other equip-
ment needed to construct export facilities. Income
from the annual sale of the above quantity of gas at
prices now under discussion would permit full amorti-
zation of these credits within ten years, and there-
after would afford the USSR annual foreign-exchange
earnings of $100 to $125 million.
Conclusion of an agreement with Japan appears
almost certain in view of the lack of alternative
sources of gas to satisfy the rising Japanese demand,
and the lack of markets for Soviet gas from Sakhalin.
Exports to Western Europe would take place through a
planned 5,000-kilometer pipeline to Trieste from
large new Soviet fields in the West Siberian lowlands.
Prices now under discussion would cover Soviet costs
and would be competitive with those of most free
world suppliers.
While seeking to export gas to Japan and Western
Europe, the USSR has already signed agreements whereby
it will import low-cost gas from Afghanistan and Iran
and will assist in the construction of the pipeline
and other facilities necessary to transmit the gas.
During 1967-74, imports of gas probably will exceed
total Soviet exports, but under present plans trade
could be approximate y in balance by 1975.
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Another near-record year in world wheat produc-
tion following last year's record crop ensures ex-
port availabilities in 1967-68 well in excess of
world demand. Rice will cause the major grain sup-
ply problem next year, however, as world demand ex-
ceeds available supplies. Production of other
major grains is sufficient to meet world demands.
World wheat production in 1967 is estimated at
a near-record 278 million tons. In North America,
both the US and Canada harvested good crops and
are faced with large exportable surpluses. Unusu-
ally favorable weather in Europe, the Middle East,
and Africa resulted in good crops. Only fair crops,
however, have been forecast for other important
wheat countries in the southern hemisphere.
Grain crops in the Communist countries, with the
exception of North Vietnam, were relatively good in
1967, and, despite continuing purchases from Canada,
the USSR will be a net exporter of wheat. Moscow
supplies Eastern Europe and probably will have to
meet large Egyptian needs next year. Peking prob-
ably will continue to import 5 to 6 million tons
of grain from the free world.
After two adverse years, favorable weather will
raise Indian foodgrain production in 1967-68. Im-
ports will still be needed, however, to help re-
plenish central reserves. Because US shipments to
India are expected to be reduced next year, Wash-
ington should be able to rebuild reserve stocks and
meet the expected demand of traditional buyers of
US wheat.
Because of short crops of rice in Thailand and
Burma, the US faces requests next year of up to
800,000 tons from South Vietnam and up to 200,000
tons from Indonesia. Washington will be hard pressed
to meet these needs and still maintain its 1967 level
of sales to the dollar market.
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Secret
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