SOVIET UNION EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A000100270002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 9, 2002
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 13, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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SOVIET UNION - EASTERN EUROPE
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January 13, 1975
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Soviets Still Show No Pattern on
Reactions to US Trade Bill . . . . . . . . . . .
Supreme Soviet Seating--A
Movable Feast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Hungary: Laughing at Kadar . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Polish Interest in Lost
Eastern Territories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
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Soviets Still Show No Pattern on
Reactions to US Trade Bill
Private comments by Soviet bureaucrats indicate
that the leadership has not yet provided definitive
guidance on what line to take regarding the impact
on US-Soviet economic relations of the US Trade Re-
form Act and credit ceiling. The volume of critical
press commentary on the trade act emigration issue
has tapered off to occasional sniping, but negative
treatment of the US on other issues remains at un-
usually high levels.
Embassy officials have detected no firm pattern
in discussions with representatives of ministries
directly affected by the trade issue. A young staff
member of the Foreign Ministry last week described
the congressional stipulations and limitations as a
"gross insult." A Foreign Trade Ministry official
concerned with US-Soviet commerce termed current
prospects for expanded bilateral trade "not bright."
Other Soviets have been less negative. A deputy
minister of the timber and wood-processing industry
said, without animus, that the legislation was an
"internal matter" for the US. Several officials,
including some involved with fossil fuel development
projects, have sought clarification of the practical
effects of the new Export-Import Bank credit ceiling.
They and others, however, seem to be proceeding on
the basis of US-Soviet business as usual.
The leadership is likely to move carefully in
translating its disappointment with the trade legisla-
tion into a policy response. Too sharp a reaction,
such as rejection of the 1972 trade agreement, could
jeopardize existing Soviet gains from the agreement
and invite US retaliation. Moscow can probably con-
tinue to finesse the issue unless the US presses for
some indication that the Soviets will resume payments
January 13, 1975
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on the Lend Lease debt in return for the US grant
of MFN status; the first payment will be due in July
1975 if the USSR receives formal notification by
May 31.
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The Soviets will carefully consider the political
implications of any response. They have argued in the
past that political detente cannot flourish without
economic cooperation. Since they have shown no serious
sign of forsaking their "peace program," despite in-
creased criticism of the US in recent weeks, they may
prefer to settle for little more than verbal remonstrances.
If, however, the emigration issue and credit restrictions
are causing real pressure on the leadership, as fragmen- 25X1A
tary and circumstantial evidence suggests, the Politburo
may decide to harden its policy toward the US, even at
January 13, 1975
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Supreme Soviet Seating--A Movable Feast
Victor Zorza's article in The Washington Post
of January 12, 1975 is one of his best. As "East
Europeans" by adoption, we have only a few points
of disagreement. Kulakov has worked effectively
as secretary for agriculture under Brezhnev's leader-
ship, but we know of no evidence that he is the Gen-
eral Secretary's personal protege. He made his career
in agricultural work in the RSFSR--Penza and Stavropol--
and is not known to have had any close contacts with
Brezhnev until he was appointed chief of the Central
Committee's Agricultural Department in November 1964
to replace an ousted Khrushchevite. He was promoted
to Secretary in September 1965--a difficult time in
which to attempt to assign personal responsibility for
moves within the leadership. As secretary for agricul-
ture, he obviously had to be acceptable to Brezhnev,
but we do not feel that fluctuations in his career
are indicative of Brezhnev's own power position.
Kulakov, Mazurov, Shelepin and Polyansky are,
of course, natural rivals for a future without
Brezhnev. We have not, however, been successful
in divining any particular significance in their
seating in the last four Supreme Soviet sessions,
which are as follows:
December 18, 1974 (Pravda, December 19)
Row 3 Kulakov, Ponomarev, Grechko, Gromyko, Solomentsev
Row 2 Mazurov, Grishin, Shelepin, Pelshe, Polyansky
Row 1 Kirilenko, Suslov, Podgorny, Kosygin, Brezhnev
July 26, 1974 (Pravda, July 27)
Row 3 Grechko, Shelepin, Andropov, Gromyko, Solomentsev
Row 2 Kulakov, Pelshe, Grishin, Mazurov, Polyansky
Row 1 Kirilenko, Suslov, Podgorny, Kosygin, empty
chair of speaker Brezhnev
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December 12, 1973 (Pravda, December 13)
Row 3 Ponomarev, .Andropov, Shelepin, Gromyko, Grechko
Row 2 Grishin, Kulakov, Pelshe, Mazurov, Polyansky
Row 1 Kirilenko, Suslov, Podgorny, Kosygin, Brezhnev
July 17, 1973 (Pravda, July 18)
Row 3 Kapitonov, Ponomarev, Grechko, Gromyko, Andropov
Row 2 empty chair of speaker Mazurov, Kulakov, Pelshe,
Shelepin, Polyansky
Row 1 Kirilenko, Suslov, Podaorny, Kosygin, Brezhnev
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Hungary: Laughing at Kadar
A popular Hungarian comedian was recently per-
mitted to perform an imitation of party leader Kadar
on domestic evening television, and his act received
a favorable review in the party daily. Although the
incident does not signal a return to the more open,
ebullient cultural policy of past years, Budapest
clearly hopes that this display of tolerance will
counterbalance in the public mind the recent out-
pouring of commitment to increased orthodoxy.
The TV show apparently had the desired effect
on the public mood. The US embassy reports that the
popular conclusion was that the performance indicated
Kadar will stay on and that no major policy shifts
are likely at the party congress in March.
Pointed political satire is not new in Hungary,
but showing it to a wide television audience is rare.
The comedian, Geza Hofi, had been doing this par-
ticular caricature of Kadar for some time at one of
Budapest's popular political cabarets. These clubs
feature highly symbolic skits that touch the most
sensitive subjects, to the delight of the politically
sophisticated Hungarians. After Kadar's triumphal
talks with Brezhnev last fall, one act showed two
lovers kissing and making up, amid sighs of popular
;relief.
Kadar quite obviously does not mind being
lampooned. In fact, he once sat appreciatively
through a cabaret act that was particularly rough
on him., and, applauded along with the rest of the
audience.
January 13, 1975
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Polish Interest in Lost Eastern Territories
The wide publicity that Warsaw gave to last
week's visit by Lithuanian party boss Grishkya-
vichyus suggests that the regime is attempting to
respond to public interest in the fate of Poles
living in the USSR.
Nearly 1.5 million Poles live in the Soviet
Union, mainly in areas that were once part of
Poland, and an estimated 300,000 reside in Lithu-
ania. Vilnyus--the capital of Lithuania--and Lvov
in the Ukraine were once major centers of Polish
cultural and political life. The US embassy in
Warsaw says that many Poles retain emotional ties
to the lost territories and often talk about visit-
ing "Polish churches" in Lithuania.
The most recent demonstration of popular in-
terest occurred in December, when 15 intellectuals
reportedly signed a letter to the government com-
plaining about the lack of Polish cultural outlets
in the Soviet Union. According to Western news
media, the police detained at least one man, who
was seeking more signatures for the letter. Poles
living in the West have also questioned the Gierek
regime on the subject.
Gierek will be very cautious in approaching
Moscow on this sensitive matter. He probably hopes
that symbolic steps such as the Grishyavichyus
visit will put his leadership on record as aware of
the concerns of the Poles without offending Mascow_
January 13, 1975
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