SOVIET UNION EASTERN EUROPE

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
C
Document Page Count: 
14
Document Creation Date: 
December 14, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 7, 2003
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
January 16, 1975
Content Type: 
NOTES
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0.pdf400.76 KB
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Approved For Release 2003/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0 Confidential 25X1 HR M 9C3 Soviet Union Eastern Europe State Dept. review completed Confidential 14J January 16, 1975 No. 0058/75 Approved For Release 2003/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0 1~7)VPpF~ X10 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Release 2003/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Release 20UON1-10[IPPA-t90865A000100380001-0 25X1 CONTENTS January 16, 1975 More Reassurance To the West. . . . . . . . . . . 1 Eastern Europe Reaction to US-Soviet Trade Agreement. . . . . . . . . . 2 USSR: Jewish Emigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Romania Seeking More US Machinery . . . . . . . . 5 Yugoslavia To Expand Air Services . . . . . . . . 6 Large Soviet Computer Fails Acceptance Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Some Perspective on US-USSR Commercial Relations During 1974. . . . . . . . 8 Approved For Release 2Gg04P1IQ "- 14M'00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Relea lqn4I JRN 4IF P79T00865A000100380001-0 More Reassurance to the West Moscow has taken additional steps publicly to reassure the West that the Soviets remain committed to detente, despite rejection of US trade legislation. The most explicit reaffirmation since Secretary Kissinger's announcement came in a broadcast on January 16 by Tass observer Anatoly Krasikov, who derided Western rumors of a "sensational change" in Soviet foreign policy. Krasikov justified the Soviet action as resulting from a "flagrant contradiction" between the 1972 trade agreement and recent US at- tempts to interfere in Soviet internal affairs. He went on to stress, however, continued Soviet sup- port for relaxation of international tension and mutually advantageous trade with the West, "not excluding" the US. Moscow also managed a plug for continued co- operation with the US in Thursday's communique following Australian Prime Minister Whitlam's visit. The communique stressed the importance of Soviet-American agreements--especially those on nuclear war and strategic arms limitation--aimed at further improving the international climate. Meanwhile, the USSR continues to cite US businessmen, congressmen, and journalists as under- standing the Soviet position in refusing to imple- ment provisions of the 1972 agreement. Moscow may also have begun to point out to other Western trading partners the silver lining they may find in the US-Soviet cloud. Unofficial Soviet spokesman Victor Louis reported to a London paper on January 15 that the British may be invited to fill orders originally destined fo January 16, 1975 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release"NfDJMNW- F79T00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Release 20e"f4l7fh1!1 WXTP0865A000100380001-0 Eastern Europe Reaction to US-Soviet Trade Agreement Following Moscow's lead the East Europeans are blaming the US for the Soviet rejection of the trade agreement, but are describing detente as a continuing process. Moscow's decision apparently caught its East European allies by surprise. Initial coverage was factual and brief, suggesting that the Soviets had once again failed to consult with their allies. The most authoritative :reaction has come from Prague, where Foreign Minister Chnoupek met with the US ambassador on Wednesday to inform him that restrictions in the trade agreement specifically aimed at Prague--and affecting Czechoslovak gold-- had produced "a very bad reaction." Although he aid not close the door to continued negotiations, Chnoupek did say that it might now be difficult to move forward on other normalization measures, such as opening a US Consulate General in Bratislava. Prague has its own axe to grind, but Chnoupek's remarks could signal that most Warsaw Pact capitals :intend to be even less cooperative in meeting US requests while keeping open the prospect of progress if the new US Congress reconsiders the trade legisla- tion. Meanwhile, the Romanians and the Yugoslavs have avoided taking an authoritative line, probably be- cause of the difficulty in finding a safe middle ground. Bucharest now is negotiating a new trade agreement of its own with Washington. Belgrade and Washington announced on Wednesday that President Ford has accepted an invitation to visit Yugoslavia, and this will serve to cool down January 16, 1975 Approved For Release 2P.R 'k T00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Rele `/ ,TCjr4-AP'79T00865A000100380001-0 those.Yugoslav leaders inclined to wade into the controversy. January 16, 1975 25X1 25X1 Approved For ReleasiM3 1'4~NATRD&79T00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Release 203' -1'. AQL0865A000100380001-0 USSR: Jewish Emigration The number of Soviet Jews granted permission to emigrate to Israel was 42 percent less last year than in 1973. According to the Dutch officials who deal with Soviet citizens applying for emigration to Israel, approximately 20,200 emigrants were processed dur- ing 1974, down from 34,800 in 1973. The number of persons processed by the Dutch dropped sharply from the last quarter of 1973 to the first quarter of 1974, but since last: April has held steady at ap- proximately 1,600 a month. An additional 800 Soviet Jews emigrated directly to the US and other Western countries last year. The Dutch attribute the decline in emigration partly to harassment by Soviet authorities and partly to the growing indecision of potential ap- plicants. The Soviets have recently increased the bureaucratic red tape involved in exit applications, although threats that applicants will lose their jobs seem to have diminished. The Dutch see no reason to believe that the present lower levels of Jewish emigration will change. There has so far been no information from the Soviet Union on what, if any, impact developments concerning the US Trade Act will have on Jewish emigration. 25X1 i January 16, 1975 Approved For Release FO0&INRDWAiT00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Rel"afg4T:'PIWP79T00865A000100380001-0 Romania Seeking More US Machinery Romanian officials say their country expects to purchase several hundred million dollars worth of US machinery and equipment through 1980. The orders will depend, however, on continued favor- able credit arrangements with the Export-Import Bank. Bucharest's shopping list includes petroleum machinery over the next four years worth $300 mil- lion and $100 million worth of heavy machinery in the next few months. Agricultural and irrigation equipment are also on the list. The Romanian debt now totals more than $2.3 billion in hard currency. Because of higher export prices, especially for petroleum products, Bucharest will nevertheless be able to handle a larger debt. 25X1 January 16, 1975 Approved For ReleCs b&/ )E'NcTAJk&79T00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Release 200T~865A000100380001-0 Yugoslavia To Expand Air Services Belgrade is rapidly expanding its international air service. The Yugoslavian airline will begin its longest haul in April, when Australia is added to the route network. Later this year, its first scheduled service to Sub-Saharan Africa will get under way with flights to Zambia. The Zambian service, which will increase transportation available to Yugoslavian technicians working in Africa, probably will be an extension of its present route to Cairo. Flights to Malta and Bangladesh are also sched- uled to begin this year, and the groundwork is being laid for air agreements with Canada, Pakistan, India, South Korea, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and possibly Ethiopia and Cyprus. Service to the US has not materialized because of ticketing problems, but Belgrade hopes to solve these problems in time for operations in 1976. The new international. services will probably use Boeing 707s. Four already are in the fleet, and three may be ordered this year. In addition, the airline is considering acquiring wide-bodied aircraft for its anticipated US and Canadian service. The new long-range special performance Boeing 747 appears to be the leading contender. 25X1 January 16, 1975 Approved For Release 200 - I]PORN 'A1J 0865A000100380001-0 Approved For ReleaWONFf14 EJ I Mt79T00865A000100380001-0 Large Soviet Computer Fails Acceptance Tests The State Committee for Science and Technology has rejected the Soviet-built ES-1050 (RYAD-50) com- puter because it failed to pass quality control tests. Moscow has been counting on the ES-1050 to get its planned nationwide data processing network off the ground. If current design deficiencies are not quickly corrected, the USSR may seek technological help from Western manufacturers or perhaps place substantial orders in the West for large data pro- cessing computers. The major problem with the computer reportedly is over-heating of the components. The 1050 utilizes type 137 ECL (emitter-coupled logic) integrated circuits to achieve high-processing speeds. These Soviet components consume relatively large amounts of power that is dissipated as heat, a severe prob- lem for any computer designer. This problem could necessitate complete redesign of the 1050's component layout and cooling system, thereby delaying introduction of the computer for several years. Similar problems may account for the failure of the largest and fastest RYAD computer, the ES-1060, to reach even the prototype stage. 25X1 January 16, 1975 Approved For Releas b J.AIA b,79T00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Release 209"71f)-PP17TL00865A000100380001-0 Some Perspective on US-USSR Commercial Relations During I PT Soviet-American commercial contacts expanded again in 1974. More than 1,200 Soviet bureaucrats, scientists, technicians, and skilled workers visited the US for commercial purposes. Some tentative conclusions about the Soviet leadership's priorities in its pursuit of American technology can be reached by looking at the organiza- tional connections of the visitors. More than 30 Soviet government administrators with the rank of deputy minister or higher visited the United States for commercial purposes in 1.974. In addition to the Ministry of Foreign Trade,organizations that sent two or more such officials were: Ministry of the Petroleum Industry Ministry of the Machine Tool and Tool Building Industry Ministry of the Pulp and Paper Industry Ministry of the Chemical Industry Ministry of Civil Aviation Ministry of Agriculture State Committee for Construction Af- fairs (Gosstroy) State Planning Committee (Gosplan) Major Soviet commercial delegations usually consisted of a cross-section of the industry rep- resented. For example, a chemical industry delega- tion might be headed by a deputy minister of the chemical industry and be accompanied by some or all of the following officials: a deputy chairman of the State Planning Committee (responsible for chemical industry planning); a representative from Soyuzkhimeksport, the Foreign Trade Ministry's association for the export and import of chemical products; an employee January 16, 1975 Approved For Release 240ff F4l p$1Q0865A000100380001-0 Approved For Relea4TJ.EIIP79T00865A000100380001-0 of the Scientific Research Institute of the Chemical Industry; the director of a chemical combine; a section head from the State Committee for Science and Technology; an editor of the official journal of the chemical industry; and a sector chief from the CPSU Central Committee's Chemical Industry Depart- ment. Any representative of the party apparatus invariably identified himself as an employee of a government ministry. Another way of measuring Soviet commercial priorities is to group visitors according to the in- dustry they represent. Included in the following approximate figures are a mixture of government of- ficials, institute members, factory directors, party apparatchiks and workers from the Foreign Trade Ministry: Automotive industry (including 54 trainees at US companies) 92 Construction industry (in- 53 dustrial, stallation rural, housing, in- work, etc.) Aviation 45 Petroleum and petrochemical 40 industries Food industry 40 Maritime affairs 39 Machine tool and tool building 33 industry Chemical industry 32 Nonferrous metallurgy (precious metals, zinc, lead, etc.) 30 Agriculture 28 "Machine Building" (road, live- 26 stock and fodder, agricultural, light industry, etc.) Ferrous metallurgy (iron and steel) 24 Electrical equipment 23 Radio, TV and cinematography 22 Geology 16 January 16, 1975 Approved For Relea WNXI*'79T00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Release 2 3 f fAV00865A000100380001-0 Both quantitative yardsticks point to the same conclusion: the Soviet construction, aviation, petroleum, automotive, machine tool, and chemical industries were the most deeply involved in business with US firms during 1974. Close behind came the food and agricultural bureaucracies. Presumably those are the industries Moscow believes have the most to gain by technological exchange with the US. 25X1 January 16, 1975 Approved For Release f IWPT00865A000100380001-0 Approved For Release 2003/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0 Confidential Confidential Approved For Release 2003/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0