WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A000200190001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 24, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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West German Christian Democrats Divided on
Foreign Policy . . . . . . . . . ]
Majority in Danish Parliament for EC
Referendum . . . . . 2
. . . . . . . . . . . .
British Changing Minds About CSCE . . . . . . . 3-4
The EC Faces Difficult Decisions on Agricultural
Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7
DOS review(s) completed.
January 24, 1975
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West German Christian Democrats Divided on Foreign
Polici
In contrast to the governing Social Democrats,
who found themselves united on most issues at their
special conference on foreign policy last weekend,
the Christian Democrats are divided on questions
related to foreign affairs.
Many Christian Democrats prefer to mute their
attacks on Ostpolitik. Diehards on this issue, how-
ever, still influence party thinking. An unauthorized
recent visit by party treasurer Walther Kiep with
East German officials has created considerable con-
troversy, dramatizing the lack of party unity on the
general issue of detente.
The Christian Democrats also have to cope with
the growing popularity and conservative views of
Franz Josef Strauss, leader of the affiliate opposi-
tion party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union.
Strauss' successful visit to China this month capped
a series of visits by leading Christian Democrats
who have tried to illustrate how the Social Democrats
have neglected Peking. His reputation as a hardliner
towards the Soviets, however, is controversial in
the Christian Democratic camp, always threatening
to open the breach between moderates and conservatives
on Ostpolitik.
Foreign policy issues are not likely to play as
great a role as they did in the 1972 national elections,
when former Chancellor Brandt strengthened his position
on the basis of his success in Ostpolitik. The con-
fusion and disunity among the Christian Democrats,
nevertheless, contrasts with the at least surface
cohesion among Social Democrats, and may complicate
the efforts of the two opposition parties to select
a common candidate to run against Schmidt in the next
January 24, 1975
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Majority in Danish Parliament for EC Referendum
A majority in the Danish parliament favors
a referendum on continued membership in the
EC if the British referendum in June leads
to London's withdrawal, according to a recent
media poll.
Parties of the left and right, including
the Social Democrats, Denmark's largest party,
favor a referendum. These parties hold 110
of the 179 seats in parliament. The center
parties, including Prime Minister Hartling's
Moderate Liberals, are undecided. Hartling
has said, however, that even without the UK,
the advantages of continued Danish membership
outweigh the disadvantages.
Hartling's future may be short lived.
He faces stiff opposition next week when his
budget proposals are introduced in parliament.
The Prime Minister has said he will resign
if his proposals are voted down. The Social
Democrats, who would assume government leadership,
would be more likely to introduce a referendum.
The true Danish sentiment on the EC issue
is difficult to measure. Recent public opinion
polls indicate that a majority of Danes oppose
continued membership in the EC.
The referendum in 1.972 which led to Danish
entry into the EC was a hotly contested issue.
Nearly two-thirds of the voters cast ballots
for market entry, but not before the ruling.
Social Democrats were badly split and the Prime
Minister had resigned.
EC membership remains a very emotional
issue and the Danes blame the EC for all their
economic ills. A referendum would probably
have a sobering effect, however, and the outcome
could be closer than the polls predict.
January 24, 1975
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British Changing Minds About CSCE
The British, who have been reluctant
to offer concessions to the East at the
European security conference in Geneva,
now advocate compromise, and have suggested
that the pace of work be accelerated in
order to wind up the conference.
Delegates from EC countries have specu-
lated that the British may be seeking to
lay the groundwork for a successful visit
by Prime Minister Wilson to Moscow next month.
During recent discussions among the
EC-Nine, the British took the lead in suggest-
ing that the current, negotiating stage of
the security conference end around Easter
time. Some of the Nine, particularly the
West Germans, opposed setting a specific date.
The British suggestion would be welcomed
in Moscow. The Soviets want the negotiations
to be over this spring so that a summit finale
to the conference can be held this summer.
The British have also taken the lead
in proposing that NATO signal the Soviets
that the West is willing to drop one of its
demands concerning military-related "confidence-
building measures." The West Europeans have
been insisting that both sides agree to provide
advance notice of major military movements.
The Soviets and their allies have strongly
opposed this, and the British are now suggesting
that the Allies attempt to obtain a Soviet con-
cession on the separate issue of providing
advance notification of military maneuvers.
January 24, 1975
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The British have also suggested that
the West offer a compromise on the issue
of follow-on machinery to the conference.
The West has supported a Danish proposal
that calls for senior officials to meet three
years after the conference ends. These officials
would assess the results of the conference and
the general state of relations among the parti-
cipating states and decide whether further
meetings might be needed.
The Soviets want the security conference
to decide to set up a body that would in
effect, permit Moscow to monitor and try to
influence West European developments. At
Moscow's behest, the Czechoslovaks have proposed
creating a consultative committee that would
have a broad mandate to promote security and
cooperation in Europe. The committee also
would have a permanent secretariat.
The British are suggesting that senior
officials meet regularly to review the general
East-West situation, with the first such meeting
taking place one year after the security conference
ends.
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The EC Faces Difficult Decisions on Agricultural
Policy
Following difficult negotiations that were
complicated by UK renegotiation demands, the EC
agriculture ministers this week abandoned their
February 1 deadline for introducing higher farm
prices.
Different rates of inflation among the EC
Nine--ranging from 6.5 percent in Germany to 20
percent in Italy--have made this year's round of
price setting the most complicated in community
history. West German Agriculture Minister Ertl
has emphasized that this reflects the EC's fail-
ure to move toward greater economic and monetary
union.
The central issues confronting the Nine are
the amount farm prices will be increased and
whether these increases will be uniform through-
out the community. The EC Commission has recom-
mended a 10 percent increase that would allow for
national variations through differential changes
in border taxes.
The Germans, with the support of the Benelux
countries, are demanding a uniform price increase
of less than 9 percent. The French, who have
promised their farmers a 13.5 percent increase,
are willing to consider a 10 percent community
increase since they intend to supplement it with
a 3.5 percent direct national subsidy to French
farmers.
The Germans have strongly opposed nationally
differentiated increases as detrimental to the EC's
common agricultural policy, arguing that they
would tend to preserve existing agricultural
structures instead of adapting them to changing
January 24, 1975
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economic conditions. The Commission proposal,
in fact, marks a radical, breach in EC agricultural
philosophy despite the fact that several countries,
including France and Luxembourg, adopted national
farm support measures last summer.
Last year the Germans agreed to a 5 percent
increase in agricultural prices on the condition
that this would be taken. into account in this
year's negotiations and that there would be no
new national measures. At present, the German
agriculture minister indicates that there is
very little room for compromise.
French and German differences will be dis-
cussed by President Giscard d'Estaing and Chancellor
Schmidt on February 3 and 4 when they meet in Paris.
A French foreign ministry official predicts that
the common agricultural policy will be the most
contentious item on an agenda which includes
energy and economic policies, security matters
and the Euro-Arab dialogue.
The UK, whose farmers are demanding a 15
percent price increase, are using the talks as
the main vehicle for pushing those renegotiation
demands in the farm sector which are as yet
unresolved. Britain is seeking to make beef.
deficiency payments to producers a permanent
alternative to intervention price supports with-
in the common agricultural policy.
Whenever beef falls below an "intervention"
price level, the community now buys it with money
from the EC farm fund and puts it into cold.stor-
age. The UK wants to lower the intervention
price and allow individual EC members to make up
the difference through direct national subsidies.
This would decrease the costs of intervention
as well as guarantee lower costs to beef consumers,
The Dutch, who want. to protect their own
poultry and pork markets, oppose any system which
encourages beef consumption through lower EC
prices. German Agricultural Minister Ertl
January 24, 1975
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believes the common agricultural policy is
already too complicated, but would support the
UK scheme as a temporary measure. The French
oppose any changes, arguing that support premiums
would benefit the middleman rather than the pro-
ducer.
The EC has, meanwhile, attacked UK requests
to lower the import levy for hard wheat, which
is used to make bread. This demand is the first
concrete expression of Prime Minister Wilson's
declared aim of retaining access to the British
market for low-cost non-European producers. UK
requests regardi,.ng dairy producers and butter
subsidies also face hard bargaining among the
Nine.
Last week the Agriculture Ministers did
reach agreement on two issues--wine and sugar.
France and Italy were authorized to distill
surplus wine in order to prop up falling prices.
The EC agreed to subsidize the import of
200,000 metric tons of sugar to cover supply
shortages, especially in Italy and the UK. This
decision improves the UK's bargaining position
with the African, Caribbean and Pacific states,
whose negotiations with the EC on a major trade
and aid agreement are currently held up over the
price the UK will agree to pay for their sugar
imports.
The Council agreed to extend existing arrange-
ments until new farm. prices are decided upon. The
Agriculture Ministers still hope to resolve the
issues at their next meeting on February 10 and 11.
January 25, 1975
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