MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A001200050002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2001
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 18, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Release 2001/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00865AO01200050002-:secret
No Foreign Dissem
gulf~p a
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Secret
No. 0693/75
June 18, 1975
#2 0
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 A po oveod eFor Release s 200,1108o 1Q& sClA-Rgg79oa0a0865A001200050002-3
Background Use Onl'/Controlled Dissem
Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 005827
Exempt from general declassification schedule
of E. 0. 11652, exemption category:
? 5B (1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified
on: Date Impossible to Determine
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This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
Saudi Arabia-South Yemen: Talks Postponed. . . .1
India: Prospects for Mrs. Gandhi. . . . . . . 2
June 18, 1975
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Saudi Arabia--South Yemen
Talks Postponed
The second round of talks between Saudi and
South Yemeni officials, scheduled for Cairo on
J
une 10 , has been postponed. re-
portedly agreea to ett during two the sf first have rof
July. The initial bilateral discussions--the
culmination of a year-long Egyptian effort t
o pro-
mote a rapprochement between Riyadh and Aden and
i
d
n
uce South Yemen to modify its radical foreign
and domestic policies--were held in Cairo in late
May.
June 18, 1975
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India
Prospects for Mrs. Gandhi
Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's
political position has been seriously weakened
by the two stunning setbacks she suffered last
week: her conviction by a court in her home
state for campaign violations in 1971, and the
defeat of her Congress Party in the legislative
election in the state of Gujarat. Her survival
in office now depends on the Supreme Court's
response to the appeal she reportedly will file
on Friday and on her ability to fend off in-
evitable challenges from within the troubled
Congress Party. Even if the Supreme Court
decides in Mrs. Gandhi's favor, control over
both the party and the government will be im-
paired. Still, the centrist Congress Party--
India's only truly national party--is likely
to continue as the dominant factor in Indian
politics.
The ruling by the court against Mrs.
Gandhi caught most Indians by surprise; the
case had been in and out of state courts since
the charges were first filed four years ago.
The almost simultaneous election setback was a
major blow to the party and proof that Mrs.
!Gandhi, who campaigned vigorously in Gujarat, is
not the vote-getter she was in 1971 and 1972.
Opposition parties lost no time in demanding
IMrs. Gandhi's resignation. She has not responded
!unequivocally, but gives every evidence of a
determination to stay on. She has been granted
~,a stay by the court until she files her appeal.
(Continued)
June 18, 1975
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A decision by the Supreme Court could
be months away. In the interim, she--will have
problems keeping her Congress Party in line. The
defeat in Gujarat heightened already growing
concern among party leaders about the party's
ability to keep its large parliamentary majority
in the next national election, which must be held
no later than next spring. Some party leaders are
convinced that public resentment will grow if Mrs.
Gandhi remains in office during a drawn-out appeal
to the Supreme Court.
The violations of which Mrs. Gandhi was found
guilty involved the use of government officials for
campaign purposes--a relatively minor offense by
Indian standards, but still very useful to the
opposition. A loose coalition of generally conservative
opposition parties was formed last year in
an effort to capitalize on popular dissatisfaction
with Congress' performance. Led by Jayaprakash
Narayan, a 72-year-old disciple of ?Maha.tma Gandhi,
the coalition has been loudly demanding clean
government, election reforms, and lower prices.
It has accused Mrs. Gandhi of dictatorial actions
such as suspending civil liberties and using
police and paramilitary-forces to suppress
legitimate dissent.
The Gujarat election was the first major
test of the ability of the members-of the opposi-
tion coalition to unite behind single candidates.
The opposition passed the test. For more than
20 years, Congress-had been able-to count on a
split of the opposition vote at both the state and
national levels. The Gujarat victory will stimu-
late the coalition to cooperate on a nationwide
basis in preparation for the next national election.
After the state court decision last week, the
opposition coalition declared that it no longer
recognized Mrs. Gandhi as prime minister. The
opposition is clearly going to work hard to force
her early resignation.
(Continued)
June 18, 1975 3
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--Sit-ins have begun in New Delhi and a
mass protest march in the capital is scheduled
for Sunday. Government security forces can
maintain public order, but injuries and arrests
may result in renewed accusations of police
repression.
--The opposition's small contingent in parlia-
ment plans to obstruct proceedings when parliament
reconvenes, possibly in mid-July. It has already
challenged Mrs. Gandhi's right to take part
in parliamentary debates before her case is
decided.
Mrs. Gandhi's cabinet associates have responded
with public expressions of full confidence. Behind
the scenes, however, party leaders are carefully
assessing whether she ought to resign. They probably
will not make a decision until the Supreme Court re-
sponds to her appeal.
Mrs. Gandhi, of course, hopes the Supreme Court
will extend the stay granted by the state court.with-
out setting conditions that would prohibit her from
participating in parliamentary sessions. If it does
not, she will probably have to step aside in favor of
an interim prime minister pending a final ruling.
Likely contenders for that role include three veteran
cabinet members, all in their sixties: Agriculture
Minister Jagjivan Ram; Foreign Minister Y. B. Chavan;
and Defense Minister Swaran Singh. Also in the
running would be Congress Party President D. K. Barooah
and West Bengal Chief Minister S. S. Ray.
Mrs. Gandhi would not wish the job to go, even on
an interim basis, to either Ram or Chavan. Both are
ambitious and might prove reluctant to give the job back
to Mrs. Gandhi. She would be especially reluctant to
have Ram take over. He has a sizable following in the
party, particularly among those who sympathize with
(Continued)
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Narayan's reform movement and are unhappy about
Congress' loose alliance with Communists. Ram re-
portedly has said he would not feel bound to continue
backing Mrs. Gandhi if she steps aside..
Mrs Gandhi may still conclude, that stepping
aside would be politically wise. Such a move
would undermine some of the opposition's arguments
and, perhaps, win public sympathy for an embattled
prime minister, still India's most popular poli-
tician.
The Supreme Court's decision on her-stay request
and its willingness to speed the appeal process.will
be important. The judge who is presiding while the
rest of the court is on vacation reportedly is pro-
Congress. The chief justice, named by Mrs. Gandhi
over three senior judges, could assist her-by-calling
a special session before the court is due to reconvene
in mid-July.
Observers in India expect that she will get tender
treatment. She appointed all of the judges now sitting
on the court. An alternative available to Mrs. Gandhi
is to request the election commissioner to waive the
penalty imposed by her conviction---a six-year ban on
holding public office. She will probably not do this,
since it would infuriate the opposition and probably
be damaging at the polls.
Mrs. Gandhi has generally refrained from blaming
her current troubles on foreigners, as she has often
done during times of stress. Her remark that Pakistan
was the only country made happy by recent developments
was swiftly rebutted by Prime Minister Bhutto. Bhutto,
in fact, is concerned that as-Mrs. Gandhi's domestic
position is threatened, she may shift to a tougher
posture toward Pakistan. He reportedly has ordered
the Pakistani press not to gloat about Mrs. Gandhi's
predicatment.
(Continued)
June 18, 1975
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India's pro-Moscow Communists are fighting
hard for Mrs. Gandhi. They are worried that a
change in prime ministers might alter the country's
socialist policies and close ties with the USSR.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
June 18, 1975
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