MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A001300090001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 31, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 3, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Secret
No Foreign Diraem
~~pf~C~ ~104~
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Secret
~;
d~ ~
No. 0821/75
July 3, 1975
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No Foreign Dissem/No Dissem Abroad
Background Use OnZ~/ControZZed Dissem
Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 005827
Exempt from general declassification schedule
of E. O. 11652, exemption category:
g 5B (11, (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified
on: Date Impossible to Determine
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MIDDLE EAST -AFRICA -SOUTH ASIA
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East -Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
Sudan: Southern Unrest 1
South Asia: Reaction to Developments in India 2
July 3, 1975
~ECRET
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Sudan
Thousands of refugees from southern Sudan are
reported to be fleeing into neighboring Ethiopia,
apparently as a result of inter-tribal fighting.
According to an Ethiopian government statement,
6,000 southern Sudanese have crossed the border
during the past two months, bringing the number of
Sudanese refuaees in Ethiopia to about 12,000.
Bari tribesmen--the dominant group in Sudan's
Equatoria Province--have been attacking Nuer and
Anuak tribesmen in neighboring Upper Nile Province.
The Bari are said to have received modern weapons
from the Sudanese army, which is dominated by Arab
northerners.
The tribal fighting is apparently going on in
the area where there are a number of camps for
refugees from the long southern rebellion that ended
in 1972. It may be the inhabitants of these camps
who are fleeing into Ethiopia to escape the fighting.
Although the black, predominantly Christian
southern Sudanese rebels signed a treaty of recon-
ciliation with the Arab?~dominated government in 1972,
the southerners remain fearful that Khartoum will
push for the Arabization of the south. Such mis-
givings about northern motives have led to the
refusal of some former rebel troops to integrate
with northern units, as well as to occasional out-
breaks of violence. The government may have decided
to sow dissension among the southerners by supplying
arms and playing upon tribal animosities. (CONFIDENTIAL)
July 3, 1975 1
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Reaction to Developments in India
India's neighbors have reacted in a measured
way to Prime Minister Gandhi's proclamation of
emergency and to the events that .followed in
India.
Pakistani Prime 'Minister Bhutto has ordered
a strict official silence and the largely govern-
ment-controlled press also has been instructed to
withhold comment. Bhutto presumably does not want
to give Mrs. Gandhi anv excuse to make a military
move against Pakistan in an attempt to divert
popular attention at home from her problems.
Bhutto's response probably also reflects in part
his assessment of his own position. ?although he
is already vulnerable to "dictator" charges,
Bhutto realizes that he might be compelled to
take similar action against opponents in the future.
It is in Islamabad's interest to have a stable
Indian government and Bhutto almost certainly
prefers to deal with a familiar adversary. He
probably believes Mrs. Gandhi will emerge
victorious and that it makes no sense to
antagonize her,
India's smaller neighbors similarly view
developments with detachment. ~dhile all have
some differences with :3ew Delhi, their leaders
have generally built good working relations with
Prime Minister Gandhi and realize that her fall
might complicate bilateral relations and
increase regional instability.
t~lhile Bangladesh has also refrained from
official comment, its government-controlled press
has reflected President ~iujibur ?tahman's pleasure
over Mrs. Gandhi's moves. lViujib views them as
justifying his own authoritarian behavior and
supporting his view that democracy has no place in
South Asia. Some Bengalees are concerned, however,
that the Indian situation may get out of hand and
have a negative impact on Bangladesh..
(Continued)
,7uly 3, 1975 ~ 2
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Sri Lanka's reaction has also been mild.
Prime Minister Bandaranaike is the only South
Asian leader who has sent and publicized a
message of support for her Indian counterpart.
The two leaders have built a close: personal
relationship and have worked hard over the last
two years to settle bilateral differences.
Other Sri Lankan officials are worried that events
in India may give encouragement to Sri Lankan
advocates of an authoritarian approach to the
island's problems.
Nepalese officials believe that New Delhi's
actions will yield positive political and
economic results for Kathmandu. They believe
Mrs. Gandhi will find it difficult to continue
advocating democratic political re.f_orms in Nepal
while denying them in her own country. They
also calculate that New Delhi will now end its
support of the outlawed Nepali Congress Party,
the only organized political group advocating.
reform in Nepal.
Kabul does not believe Mrs. Gandhi's actions
will affect New Delhi's friendly relations with
Afghanistan. One high-level Afghan official
speculated, however, that developments in India
will make the Afghans careful in phrasing their
constitution, which is now being drafted.
(SECRET/NO FO?~EIGN DISSEM/CONTROLLED DISSEM/
NO DISSEM ABFtO.AD/B.ACKGROUND USE ONLY)
July 3, 1975 3
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