STAFF NOTES: WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A001800220001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 22, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 25, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Dublin Municipal Employees May Strike
UK Announces New Program To Fight Rising
Unemployment . .
EC Farm Ministers To Face West German
Pressure for Austerity on Monday . . . . . . 4
MBFR Talks Resume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Italian Parties Discuss Strategy . . . . . . . 8
Rumored Agreement Between Italy and
Yugoslavia on Trieste . . . . . . . . . . . 11
DOS review(s) completed.
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Dublin Municipal Employees May Strike
Sewerage, fire, and water services employees
in Dublin have threatened to strike on September
29 if the government is unable to break the dead-
locked negotiations to revise the national wage
agreement. Prime Minister Cosgrave said that,
if necessary, he will recall parliament from
vacation to pass "emergency" legislation to re-
solve the issue, despite the strain this would
impose on his Labor Party-Fine Gael coalition.
The Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU),
which represents the municipal employees, had
previously agreed to forego the four percent
wage hike called for in the wage agreement and to
accept in its place a wage increase predicated
on the increase in the consumer price index. In
return, the government promised to do its share
to combat inflation by granting subsidies to keep
food prices down. Last week, however, when it
became apparent that there would be no wage in-
crease because the consumer price index would show
a .8 percent decrease for the quarter, the ICTU
decided to hold out for some of the four percent
increase for certain jobs such as municipal workers.
Cosgrave probably is aware that a major con-
frontation between the government and the unions
could wreck his coalition. The Embassy in Dublin
feels that a face saving compromise may be worked
out before parliament is asked to provide special
legislation. The Embassy points out, however,
that the dispute involves two very stubborn groups
and a nossible government crisis can not be ruled
out.
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UK Announces New Program To Fight Rising
Unemployment
The British government yesterday announced a
program to combat rising unemployment, especially
among the young. Slightly over $210 million will
be spent in the first year. The program does not
shift policy away from fighting inflation but it
may buy some time for London's wage restraints.
The scheme will provide $62 million to sub-
sidize new jobs for young workers in areas of high
unemployment. Another $41 million will be spent
on job training. The program also includes funds
for industrial development and for building factories.
Britain is experiencing its worst unemployment
since the end of World War II. Since last December,
unemployment has jumped 60 percent, and has now
affected 4.3 percent of the labor force. The young
have been hardest hit.
Union calls for action have become more strident
in recent weeks; some labor leaders have suggested
that measures to stimulate the economy will be the
price for continued union support of the wage re-
straint program. Chancellor of the Exchequer Healey
hopes to hold off any such action until his anti-
inflation program has had an impact on prices, prob-
ably next spring.
Unemployment is expected to go on rising well
into next year and may reach the 1.5 million mark.
September 25, 1975
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EC Farm Ministers To Face West German Pressure
for Austerity on Monday
West German pressure to keep down EC costs,
particularly on farm supports, seems likely to
raise hackles at the EC Council of agricultural
ministers on September 29 and 30.
The Council is to discuss the stocktaking
of the common agricultural policy, which Bonn
put on the EC agenda for this year after a sharp
dispute over farm price supports last fall.
Despite Bonn's known interest in putting a limit
on farm support costs, the Commission's recommendations
call for new expensive commitments including
stockpiling and long term contracts.
This week's EC budget meeting foreshadowed
problems for next week's Council. The meeting
was highlighted by West German demands for
a steep reduction in the Commission's request
for the entire 1976 budget. most of the Commission's
proposals for new activities were cut and
a compromise was reached on reducing aid to
poor regions of the EC. As the West Germans
could not agree with the other ministers on the
extent of cuts in the farm sector, this question
was left for next week's Council.
A proposed long term solution for the
much publicized surplus wine production in
France and Italy also hinges on expenditures
that Bonn is unwilling to make. For the short
term, the Commission's decision that France
acted illegally in imposing a border tax on
Italian wine defused Rome's threats of retaliation.
At the same time, technicalities that will
delay ratification by the European Court of
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the Commission's decision give the French several
months leeway. The Commission also instituted
subsidies on French and Italian wine for certain
markets, which should particularly increase sales
to the USSR.
General agreement has been reached on
limiting new planting and on quality control.
Disposition of future surplus wine production
through distillation into industrial alcohol
is, however, still being disputed. Bonn insists
that because this remedy is expensive, it
should be applied in such a way that it does
not encourage increased production.
The West German agricultural minister
will undoubtedly have a limited mandate because
a simultaneous cabinet meeting in Bonn will
be reviewing policy toward the EC in the interests
of greater austerity.
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MBFR Talks Resume
The current round of MBFR talks which
opens today'in Vienna will be seen by West
Europeans as the first major test of the
"spirit of Helsinki." Progress in the
negotiations, however, is likely to depend
on whether the West can reach agreement on
its long-awaited nuclear proposal.
The East has encouraged the belief
that once a CSCE agreement was concluded
progress at MBFR would follow. After Helsinki,
Brezhnev--along with many Western leaders--
underlined the need to give priority attention
to reducing armed forces in Central Europe.
Some progress in Vienna may come if
the West is able to surmount reservations
on the part of some Europeans regarding
Option III, the long-awaited nuclear proposal
which the US introduced in NATO last summer.
This calls for a reduction in Western Europe
of US nuclear warheads and delivery systems
in return for a withdrawal of a Soviet tank
army and a Soviet commitment to a common
ceiling for both Warsaw Pact and NATO forces.
Although considerable agreement has been
reached among the Allies regarding the proposal,
differences remain in two key areas: limitations
on Allied armaments and the definition of
a common ceiling.
The West Germans are concerned that
the introduction of Option III may shift
the emphasis at the MBFR talks froom troop
reductions to broader questions involving
armaments. They would like to ensure that
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a force reduction agreement will not result
in limitations on West European military
equipment.
The British in the last round of talks
emphasized the objective of a specific,
numerical ceiling for both the Warsaw Pact
and NATO. They and their supporters have
now given up this commitment because agreement
with the East on issues related to determining
the size and make-up of Warsaw Pact forces
has not been reached. The Germans and the
British remain determined, however, to use
Option III to buy more than a formal commitment
to a common ceiling. They have not yet
decided what it should be.
Western agreement to include air manpower
in the common ceiling has also made it more
difficult to keep the focus on East-West
ground force disparities. The Belgians
believe that this issue is likely to prove
so difficult for the Allies that option
III may have to be introduced without an
accompanying air manpower proposal. The
parallel introduction of these proposals
is intended to meet the East's demand that
Western air forces and nuclear weapons also
be reduced. F77
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Italian Parties Discuss Strategy
Italy's Christian Democrats and Socialists
have each held party leadership meetings recently
to grapple with political problems brought on by
the Communists' showing in the nationwide local
elections last June. The two parties' differing
views on how to deal with the Communists remain a
major obstacle to renewal of the cooperation between
the two that has been the basis for most Italian
governments since 1963.
Both Socialists and Christian Democrats said
they still see Prime Minister Moro's fragile
government--in which only the Christian Democrats
and the Republicans participate directly--as the
only viable possibility under present circumstances.
The Socialists, however, seemed to condition their
continued support on the government's responsiveness
to organized labor's demands in major contract
talks that open this week.
At the Christian Democrats' gathering, party
leader Zaccagnini took a step toward the Socialists
but did not go far enough to bridge the gap on the
Communist issue. Zaccagnini rejected the alterna-
tives of a governmental accord with the Communists
or of all-out opposition to them, and recommended
a third approach--"competitive dialogue" on major
problems.
Although left-of-center Christian Democrats
have long talked in these terms, the party has
never gone along. Zaccagnini faces an uphill
fight in trying to make this vague formulation
specific enough to satisfy the Socialists and still
obtain agreement within his own party. Conservative
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Christian Democrats have warned that dialogue with
the Communists is a losing proposition unless their
party first develops its own clear line on major
policy (questions.
The Socialist meeting, meanwhile, underlined
the growing fear among party leaders that their
post-election maneuvers have hurt the party by
identifying it too closely with the better organ-
ized and stronger Communists.
Since June, The Socialists have
--sharply increased collaboration with the
Communists by forming governments with them
in most major Italian cities, 5 of the 20
regions, and about a third of the 94 provinces,
and
--refused to form another national coalition
with the Christian Democrats without a formal
procedure for considering Communist views on
policy options.
Most Socialists are convinced that they suffered
in the :Last election as a result of cooperation with
the government and believe they cannot compete with
the Communists for voter support unless the Communists'
opposition status is somehow diluted. Emphasis
at the leadership meeting was on establishing an
"autonomous" line of action to set the Socialists
apart from both the Communists and Christian Demo-
crats--no small task.
Communist chief Berlinguer is staying out
of the Socialist-Christian Democrat dispute over
his party's role in the next national government.
Nevertheless, the Socialists are concerned over
his insistence that Communist strategy at the
national level has not changed. Berlinguer is
still aiming for an eventual "historic compromise"
agreement with the Christian Democrats, which, if
accomplished, would make Socialist support superfluous.
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The Communists are not overly jubilant them-
selves, however, and are being particularly cautious
in those localities where they now hold power for
the first time. They fear that public reaction to
their initiatives could send protest voters back
to the Christian Democrats or the far right in the
next election.
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Rumored Agreement Between Italy and Yugoslavia
o-n Trieste
The. Italian, press is highlighting rumors that
Italy and Yugoslavia will sign a protocol, possibly
by the end of next month, that will conclude their
dispute over the Trieste area that has simmered
since the end of World War. II. There is no
official confirmation of such an agreement.
The protocol reportedly provides for:
--recognition of the present demarcation
line between Trieste and its surrounding
"Zone A," and "Zone B" to the south, as
the legal border between Italy and
Yugoslavia;
--unspecified economic arrangements; and
--guarantees for ethnic minorities. The
press estimates that there are 25,000
Slavic speakers among the 300,000
inhabitants of the Italian area and
15,000 Italians among the 40,000 persons
in the Yugoslav zone.
Opposition to such an agreement would come
from Italian neo-Fascists and the Liberals.
Press reports indicate that militant nationalist
Italian rightists in the Trieste area are already
planning demonstrations to protest the protocol.
The Italian Communist press has given the story
only low key coverage, but Communist deputies are
likely to support such an agreement if it comes
to a vote.
In the past, protests from the Italian right
have forced shaky coalition governments in Rome
to back away from nearly completed settlements of
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the Trieste issue. Should this happen again,
Belgrade would probably reopen polemics on Italian
irredentism, which it has shut off for the last
year. President Tito, who wants the Trieste
question settled before he dies, sees hesitation
in Italy as a mask for territorial claims that
could be levied against a ossibl troubled
Yugoslav successor regime. 25X1
M
Koper
lul.?
September 25, 1975
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