MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A001900250001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 31, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 10, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Confidential
No 0867/75
October 10, 1975
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Warning Notice
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 010725
Exempt from general declassification schedule
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
Sudan: Outlook for Numavri . . . . . . . . . . 1
Republic of Maldives: Status Report. . . . . . 2
Chad-France: Relations Strained. . . . . . . . 4
Oct 10, 1975
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Sudan
.Outlook for Numayyri
President Numayri came out of the September
5 coup attempt with his position strengthened,
according to a recent assessment by the US embassy
in Khartoum.
Numayri is likely to rely increasingly on
former military associates whom he appointed to
senior positions in government and on strongmen
in the politburo of the Sudanese Socialist Union,
who rallied behind him during the brief coup
episode. Although he will use his newly legislated
internal security powers to further neutralize
anti-regime elements--including communists, Muslim
extremists, and Khartoum University students--the
embassy does not believe Sudan is likely to become a
harsh police state.
The government will be in no hurry to reopen
the university, which has long been a thorn in
Numayri's side. By tying student and faculty
activity to the abortive attempt to oust him--little
evidence has been offered to substantiate this charge--
Numayri has an excuse to silence the only remaining
forum in Khartoum for anti-regime activity.
Numayri's continuation in office should ensure
that relations between Arab northerners and Black
southerners will remain on an even keel. Many
southerners believe Numayri is their best guarantee
for the perpetuation of regional autonomy.
In foreign relations, Sudan is likely to continue
its efforts to forge. closer ties with moderate
Arab states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia (CONFIDENTIAL)
Oct 10, 1975 1
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Republic of Maldives
Status Report
President Ibrahim Nasir has succeeded in
reinforcing his paramount position since he dismissed
Ahmad Zaki from the prime ministership last March
and imposed presidential rule on this tiny Indian
Ocean archipelago. Nasir has transformed several
ministries into departments under the presidency and
has personally taken charge of two of them--external
affairs and education. '.Zaki, whose prestige was
clearly growing at the time of his ouster, remains
in prison.
Britain's decision to close down its airforce
staging base on Gan Island--in the Maldives'
southernmost atoll--and turn over the complex to
the Maldivians will have a major impact on the
republic's foreign relations. Negotiations on
the British withdrawal are nearing completion.
The British plan to end operations through Gan on
December 31 and to remove all their personnel by
next April. The Maldivians apparently do not plan
to use Gan as an airfield and may dismantle and
move some of the facilities to other islands. The
departure of the British will end both a century.,
of UK influence in the islands and the only close
political link the Malidves have with a foreign
power.
Since the British announced about a year ago
their intention to withdraw from Gan, the tempo of
official visits to the islands from other countires
has increased. The Indians and the Pakistanis
have been the most active. Each country wants to
ensure that no other nation takes up where the
British leave off.
(Continued)
Oct 10, 1975 2
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The Naldivians, for their part, apparently
want to establish contacts with as many countries as
possible. To this end, the government is seeking
private investments and aid from a variety of
sources, including France and Iran. In at least
one case the Maldivian desire for wider diplomatic
contacts has been thwarted by. external pressure.
Last April the government of the heavily iluslim
country broke relations with Israel in response
to Arab threats to boycott the 46-ship i'ialidivian
merchant fleet, which is active in the Persian
Gulf. (CONFIDENTIAL)
Oct 10, 1975
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Chad-France
Paris has agreed to the Chadian government's
request that the 2,000 French troops in Chad be
withdrawn by the end of this month. French troops
have been stationed in Chad under defense accords
that were negotiated when Chad became independent
in 1960. The military regime in Ndjamena requested
the withdrawal to demonstrate its displeasure over
France's recent direct dealings with tribal rebels
in northern Chad aimed at securing the release of
a 2.rcnch woman held hostage by the rebels since
April 1974.
A French foreign minstry official has tried
to play down the significance of this latest
irritant in Franco-Chadian relations. In a
conversation with a US embassy officer, the French
official dismissed the episode as a transitory
difficulty that would probably fade away when
Chadian leaders realized that they have no other
place to turn for essential aid. He noted that
Chad had not requested the withdrawal of the 300
French technical advisers assigned to the Chadian
army.
Nevertheless, Chadian President Malloum is
now casting about for alternative sources of
military assistance. Chad's minister of finance
is currently visiting Moscow and several East
European countries seeking military aid. Soviet
embassy officials in Chad have expressed
satisfaction with Malloum's re ~, took over
in a coup last April, and Moscow may respond
favorably to Chad's request. Soviet activities in
Chad since the two countries established diplomatic
relations in 1964 have focused largely on technical
assistance and cultural programs. Malloum has
unsuccessfully requested military assistance from the
US and may now try to approach other Western countires
for aid as well. (CONFIDENTIAL)
Oct 10, 1975 4
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Confidential
Confidential
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