MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A002100190001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 10, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Confidential
NOFORN
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Confidential
No. 0879/75
November 10, 1975
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Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
NOFORN- Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
NOCONTRACT- Not Releasable to Contractors or
Contractor/Consultants
PROPIN- Caution-Proprietary Information Involved
USIBONLY- USIB Departments Only
ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information
Controlled by Originator
REL... - This Information has been Authorized for
Release to ...
Classified by 010725
Exempt front general declassification schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
458(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
Date Impossible to Determine
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
Israel:
Exodus Cancels Out Immigration Gains . 1
Nigeria:
Port Congestion Problems Compounded . 4
November 10, 1975
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Israel
Exodus Cancels Out Immigration Gains
Israel is likely to have no net population
gain from immigration this year, apparently for the
first time since its founding in 1948. According
to data reported to the Israeli cabinet late last
month, the number of persons leaving the country
permanently in 1975--estimated to be about 18,000--
is expected to about equal the number of those
arriving to take up permanent residence.
Although the number of emigrants this year is
substantially less than the estimated 29,000 who
left Israel in 1974 in the wake of the Yom Kippur
War, the number of new arrivals, which normally
more than offsets the figure for departures, is the
lowest since 1967. There is little expectation
that the situation can be reversed soon. Although
the figures shown the cabinet project an increase
in the number of new arrivals next year, the number
of emigrants is expected to remain high, allowing
for only a small net gain at best.
If the figures are accurate, the average
annual rate of emigration from Israel since the
1973 war has been more than double the pre-war
rate.
A poll taken last summer found that more than
one Israeli in twenty was considering leaving the
country. Most of the reasons advanced by potential
emigrants reflect social and economic discontent
and anxiety about Israel's security. High taxes,
inflation, and difficulty in finding suitable
employment figure prominently as reasons for leaving.
A substantial number of those who emigrate are
relative newcomers to Israel, among whom concern
over security is particularly influential. The
Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics recently
(Continued)
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estimated that 20 percent of all immigrants who
arrived in Israel five years ago have since left.
The figure is even higher for immigrants from
Western countries, 40 percent of whom departed
within five years.
Compounding the problem is the fact that
emigrants tend to be the sort of people Israel can't
afford to lose--young, relatively well-educated
couples with children. Less than 20 percent of the
emigrants are over 45 years of age. Immigrants, on
the other hand, tend to be older people. Last year
nearly 30 percent of them were over 45 years of
age.
The Israeli government has been deeply concerned
for over a year about the drop in the number of
immigrants and the rise in emigration. Government
policy is to maintain a large majority of Jews over
Arabs in Israel. The rate of natural growth of the
country's 2.9 million Jews, however, is estimated
to be only about 2.6 percent per year. It lags
substantially behind that of non-Jews--mostly
Arabs--which is estimated to be about 4 percent.
Until the October 1973 war, the government
could generally count on a large annual net gain of
immigrants over emigrants to offset the difference.
As that gain has dwindled, the government has
sought to stimulate Jewish population growth by
increasing birth allowances, especially for large
families, and has raised the cost of foreign travel,
partly to discourage emigration. The main emphasis,
however, continues to be on programs to stimulate
the flow of immigrants to Israel.
The Israelis recognize that they must look to
the Soviet Union--the only country with a substantial
pool of Jews interested in emigration--as the major
source of potential newcomers. They also know that
Moscow carefully controls the flow of Soviet emigrants.
All of this may become an increasingly important
factor in determining the government's policy
toward the Soviets. It will probably strengthen
(Continued)
Nov 10, 1975
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CONFIDENTIAL
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the arguments of those in the government advocating
an improvement in Israeli-Soviet relations, presently
in limbo because of the unresolved Arab-Israeli
conflict. (CONFIDENTIAL/NOFORN)
Nov 10, 1975
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Nigeria
Port Congestion Problems Compounded
Stiff measures taken by Nigeria's new military
government to reduce port congestion are spurring
counteractions by foreign suppliers that could damage
the country's international business standing.
The severe congestion is being caused by de-
liveries on contracts arranged by the ousted regime
of General Gowon for 20 million tons of cement.
At last count, almost 400 ships--more than half
of them carrying cement--were waiting to unload at
the port of Lagos. The cement ordered, far in excess
of both port capacity and anticipated development
needs, was intended for the army's long-delayed
barracks-building program.
Early last month, Nigeria ordered US and
European cement suppliers to stop, until further
notice, shipments not already en route. Lagos
also suspended demurrage payments for offloading
delays that run longer than called for in the cement
contracts. These payments, which have cost Lagos
about $1 million per day, frequently were being col-
lected under false pretenses.
In a conciliatory gesture, the Nigerian transport
commissioner recently stated that his government's
actions were temporary and not intended to cancel
the cement contracts. He promised that Lagos would
provide compensation for justifiable demurrage
claims. A Nigerian delegation is in Europe trying
to reschedule cement deliveries over a 2 to 3 year
period.
Despite these assurances, foreign suppliers
are insisting that Nigeria cannot unilaterally amend
the contracts. A West German company has already
brought suit, resulting in a court order freezing all
(Continued)
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CONFIDENTIAL
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Nigerian assets in that country. Legal action
also is being contemplated by firms in the US,
the UK, and the Netherlands. Prolonged litigation
could damage the favorable investment climate
in. Nigeria and hamper efforts to obtain the foreign
experts essential to the country's development.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
Nov 10, 1975 5
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Confidential
Confidential
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