MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A002200070002-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2001
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 19, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Secret
NOFORN
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Secret
No. 0822/75
November 19, 1975
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NOFORN/NO CONTRA CT/ORCON
Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
NOFORN- Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
NOCONTRACT- Not Releasable to Contractors or
Contractor/Consultants
PROPIN- Caution-Proprietary Information Involved
USIBONLY- USIB Departments Only
ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information
Controlled by Originator
REL... - This Information has been Authorized for
Release to ...
Clessifled by 010725
Exempt from general declassification schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
068(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
Date Impossible to Determine
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
United Arab Emirates: State of the
Federation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Pakistan: New Measures Against the
Opposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Nov 19, 1975
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United Arab Emirates
State of the Federation
The rulers of the seven member states of the
United Arab Emirates met this week and agreed to
place police, internal security, and intelligence
functions under federal control. Nearly four
years after the creation of the union, however, agree-
ment on merger of their defense forces continues to
elude the emirs. Much of the credit for these latest
steps toward strengthening the federation, if they
stick, should be given to Saudi Arabia's Prince Fahd
who threw his weight behind the efforts of UAE
President Sheik Zayid during Fahd's visit to the
emirates last week.
Sheikh Zayid, ruler of the wealthiest emirate
Abu Dhabi and driving force behind the federation, is
disappointed that full integration of the defense
establishments was not achieved in spite of Fahd's
intensive lobbying effort with the emirs. Some of
the rulers fear that the 13,000-man Abu Dhabi Defense
Force and the 3,000-man UAE Defense Force under
Zayid's control would dominate the much smaller con-
tingents of the other sheikhdoms in a fully integrated
federal force.
Zayid's ambition to move ahead rapidly with
centralization of the emirates' government and financial
institutions continues to be stymied by Vice President
Rashid, ruler of the second most important emirate
Earlier this month, the rulers of Sharjah and
Fujairah, probably swayed by financial inducements
from Zayid, issued decrees calling for the merger of
their local government departments with counterpart
(Continued)
Nov 19, 1975
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federal ministries. Although Rashid is probably
chafing under the pressure being applied both by
Prince Fahd and his fellow emirs, it is unlikely,
in view of his own firm convictions and Dubai's
independent financial position, that he will move
pore rapidly on federation.
Even so, Rashid's apparent concession on
integration of police and intelligence functions is
significant both in terms of strengthening the
UAE's internal security and in creating a more
favorable atmosphere for further steps toward fed-
eration.
The rulers' earlier decisions to strengthen
the federation have not always been strictly
observed, however. Dubai, for example, has ignored
a federal regulation that enjoins a member state
to consult with the UAE oil ministry before negotiating
a contract with a foreign company. It remains to
be seen whether the decision this week to integrate
police and security services will be implemented
or whether it is no more than a paper formulation
devised to save President Zayid's face. A clearer
picture may emerge as to where the federation is
heading when the rulers meet again in late December.
(SECRET NOFORN/NOCONTRACT/ORCON)
Nov 19, 1975 2
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Pakistan
New Measures Against the Opposition
Prime Minister Bhutto reportedly is taking a
number of new steps to counter his political opponents,
who have grown more active in recent months.
Last week Bhutto took advantage of his party's
strong majority in the national legislature to
secure passage of some constitutional amendments
whose main purpose,
is to deny e rig o Judicial review to
detained for political reasons.
Bhutto is giving expanded authority
and manpower to the government's civilian and military
intelligence services for monitoring opposition
political activities. The government, which has
incarcerated a number of anti-Bhutto political leaders
'51over th P. Writ cPS)Pra 1 17Gar0 n,- o 4--,a d-.,.-. ., ..,.. 4-
legislators last week. ++
3
The new measures appear to be primarily a result
of opposition activities in Punjab province, where
three-fifths of Pakistan's people live. G.M. Khar,
a former aide to Bhutto and ex-governor of the province,
has been mounting an anti-Bhutto campaign there in
recent months and appears to be having some success
in winning support from other opposition politicians.
Opposition activity has also started to pick up a bit
in Sind--Bhutto's birthplace and the country's second
most populous province--and in the frontier province
of Baluchistan.
Bhutto has enjoyed wide support in both Punjab
and Sind during most of his four years in power, but
economic problems such as inflation, along with long-
standing ethnic and regional rivalries, may have begun
to cut into his popularity. The Prime Minister has
never been particularly popular in Baluchistan or in
the North-West Frontier, Pakistan's other province.
(Continued)
Nov 19, 1975
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I3hutto's latest measures,
ight be part of a broader plan in which the govern-
ent would seek to intimidate the opposition into
Isilence or disarray, and, if successful, would then
call a national election to be held sometime in
the first half of 1976, a year ahead of the consti-
tutional deadline. Last week Bhutto, possibly with
an early election in mind, announced a major agricul-
tural tax reform that should give a new boost to his
popularity among the country's numerous small land-
holders, most of whom live in Punjab province. Regard-
less of when an election is held, Bhutto and his govern-
ment are unlikely to rely solely on their popularity;
the Prime Minister's readiness to resort to intimidation
and fraud has been amply reflected in various by-
elections conducted in recent years. (SECRET NOFORN/
NOCONTRACT/ORCON)
Nov 1.9, 1975 4
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Secret
Secret
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