EAST ASIA BIWEEKLY REVIEW

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
13
Document Creation Date: 
December 12, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 25, 2002
Sequence Number: 
8
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 21, 1978
Content Type: 
NOTES
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7.pdf373.29 KB
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National eaVSW enltease 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A0022000100~oe,,retR,-,,,CONTRACT Center East Asia Biweekly Review Secret RP EABR 78-007 21 March 1978 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008- 216 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Warning Notice Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved (WNINTEL) NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS NOFORN- Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals NOCONTRACT- Not Releasable to Contractors or Contractor/ Consultants PROPIN- Caution-Proprietary Information Involved NFIBONLY- NFIS Departments Only ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information Controlled by Originator REL ..:- This Information has been Authorized for Release to ... 1 aa.tr>d by 91%41 E-"V 1.w. awrd Deda*Hkotiw+ 5d... . of 1.0. 11652. ee+eq#b emvbpsry: SK. 5S(1 . (2 ad (3) Aulcma kdy d.da.iI m: daft repo . to d.ewA> NFAC publications are available on microfiche. To get a microfiche copy of this publication callII(OCR/DSB); for future issuances in addition to or in lieu of hard copies, coll=PPG/RD). STATOTHR STATOTHR Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Approved For Release 2002/05/07StRA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 NOFORN-NOCONTRACT EAST ASIA BIWEEKLY REVIEW 21 March 1978 CONTENTS The Philippine Parlimentary Elections at midpoint. Australia: Accord on Uranium. uapan: Selected Chronology . . _ . . . . NOTE: A supplement to today's edition of EAST ASIA BI- WEEKLY REVIEW has been published and disseminated in special intelligence channels. This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington community by the East Asia/Pacific Division, Office of Regional and Political Analysis, with occasional contributions from other offices within the National Foreign Assessment Center. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to the authors of the individual articles. 25X6 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 SECRET NOFORN-NOCONTRACT 25X1 C The Philippine Parlimentary Elections at Midpoint With parliamentary elections less than three weeks away, there has been a dramatic rise in the level of public interest in the prospects for the opposition slate of candidates in the manila area--particularly former Senator Benigno Aquino's chances of winning a seat in the new national assembly. Although assured of an electoral victory, Marcos is concerned over private polls suggesting that Aquino is consistently among the top two or three votegetters in Manila. Only Mrs. Marcos appears to be ahead of him at this reading. President Marcos, who took over personal direction of the government party's campaign in Manila, has thus far remained aloof from all of the controversy and de- bate surrounding Aquino's campaign. Shrewdly playing the statesman's role--spotlighted by last week's visit of Chinese Vice Premier Li Hsien-nien--Marcos has opted to let Defense Secretary Enrile carry the burden of the government's attack against Aquino. Campaigning from his prison cell, Aquino was per- mitted to appear on a 90-minute "Face the Nation" tele- vised interview on 10 March during which he responded to Enrile's charges concerning alleged CIA and Communist connections. Aquino's interviewers were clearly out- classed and found few if any weak spots in his version of events. Indeed, his performance--respectful of Marcos and moderate in his criticism of martial law--was by most accounts highly effective. 25X1A 25X1 C The opposition slate in Manila led by Aquino has shifted its campaign rallies from college campuses to working-class neighborhoods and has attracted increasingly SECRET Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 SECRET large crowds. With Aquino's active entry into the cam- paign fray, the opposition in Manila now appears to have a strong chance of winning a number of the 21 seats at stake in the metropolitan area. Any effort by Marcos to silence Aquino at this point would probably gain even more popular sympathy for the opposition. Marcos may now feel that he has gone some way in attempting to shed an image as a dictator who brooks no opposition. However, the Philippine President may also now realize that it will be increasingly difficult for the government slate to defeat Aquino without some fairly obvious dishonesty--and it may be equally difficult to deny him his seat in the legislature if he wins the election. Marcos has publicly hedged any guarantees regarding Aquino by asserting that whether the former senator would be allowed to sit in the new legislature if elected was a matter for the courts to decide. Against this background, it seems likely that the campaign in Manila will become even more intense and polemical in the final days before the 7 April elections, with Marcos doing everything possible to discredit Aquino and hopefully limiting the government's losses in Manila. (CONFIDENTIAL) SECRET Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 Approved For Release 2002/05/%Id V&-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 25X1A Australia: Accord on Uranium Prospects are improving for an accord between the Liberal-Country government and the opposition-supported labor movement that could end the national debate over exploiting Australia's uranium, one-fifth of known world reserves. The Fraser government's agreement to work with the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) in formulating nonproliferation safeguards on exported uranium could remove the last political constraints to Australia's becoming a major supplier. Even with a polit- ical accommodation, however, production problems will delay Australia's reaching its export potential. The powerful labor federation last month endorsed the resumption of uranium mining and sales on condition that the government consult with it on controls against use in nuclear weapons. A positive government response was not at all certain, given the ingrained adversary relationship between all Liberal-Country governments and the Labor Party - supported trade union movement. Coop- eration between the government and the ACTU, whose presi- dent--Bob Hawke--is also president of the Labor Party, reflects a shared recognition of the importance uranium earnings could have in reviving Australia's troubled economy. Concern over contributing to nuclear proliferation has slowed implementation of Prime Minister Fraser's decision of last August to lift the predecessor Labor government's ban on uranium mining and export. Leftists in the Labor Party and the trade union movement played upon popular misgivings, although Hawke and then party parliamentary leader Whitlam saw the economic promise of uranium. These divisions within the Labor Party, plus the Liberal-Country government's reading of public unease, held each side back from making uranium an issue in the national election campaign last fall. The ACTU's conditional endorsement of mining last month was a signal victory of Hawke over labor union 3 SECRET Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 SECRET leftists, and the government's willingness to discuss safeguards will help him win out over the diehards. Even though there is little love lost between Hawke and Fraser, Hawke echoed government arguments that uranium jobs could ease record unemployment, and he pointed out that opposition was centered in leftist-led unions not in- volved in uranium production. The flouting last month by railway and dock workers of their leaders' bans on handling uranium shipments suggested a growing understanding among workers of the economic benefits of uranium production. This month, leftwing Melbourne labor leaders--vociferous and occa- sionally violent foes of uranium development--were given a sharp rebuke when Melbourne longshoremen backed the ACTU's uranium decision by a 3 to 1 vote. With the trend toward greater public acceptance of uranium mining, the government probably can make a con- vincing case that contracts with foreign buyers will contain strong safeguards over use of the uranium. Bureau- cratic sluggishness and claims by aborigines on lands where new mines may be opened remain major stumbling blocks, however. Deputy Prime Minister Anthony warned two weeks ago that Australia may default on one-fourth of its export commitments through the mid-1980s. (CONFIDENTIAL NOFORN) SECRET Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 25X6 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Next 7 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 SECRET 25X1A Japan: Selected Chronology 21 February Former Japanese Agriculture-Forestry Min- ister Zenko Suzuki visits New Zealand for talks with Prime Minister Muldoon and Deputy Prime Minister Talboys regarding New-Zealand's desire to increase exports of dairy products to Japan. (U) 22-27 February Five members of the Liberal Democratic Party, led by Iichiro Yamanouchi, fly to Seoul at the invitation of the ruling Korean Democratic Party. (U) 23 February Taro Miyamoto, a member of the Central Committee of the Japan Communist Party (JCP), arrives in Hanoi as the JCP's resident representative. (U) Tomohiko Kobayashi, Deputy Director Gen- eral of the UN Bureau, is appointed As- sistant Secretary of the OECD. He will be replaced at the UN by Atsuhiko Yatabe, Minister at the Japanese Embassy in Vienna. (U) 27 February- Denmark's Foreign Minister Knud Borge 1 March Andersen arrives for talks with govern- ment officials on ways to reduce Japan's trade surplus with the European Community. (U) 4 March Kiyoaki Kukuchi, the new Japanese Ambas- sador to Singapore, presents his creden- tials. (U) 9-19 March Minoru Masuda, Vice Minister for Interna- tional Affairs of the Ministry of Inter- national Trade and Industry, joins a Japanese trade mission, led by Yoshizo SECRET Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 Approved For Release 205/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 9-19 March Ikeda, President of Mitsui and Co., to participate in talks in Washington with US Government officials. (U) 10-18 March A five-member Komeito mission, led by Secretary General Junya Yano, leaves for Peking for a goodwill visit. This is Yano's first visit to China. (U) 12-15 March Takashi Tajima, director of the Foreign Ministry's China Division, visits Peking for consultations with Japanese Ambassador Sato regarding the resumption of negotia- tions on a Japan-China treaty of peace and friendship. (U) 13 March Toshikazu Maeda, the Japanese Ambassador in Kabul, presents his credentials. (U) 13-19 March Todor Zhivkov, President of the State Council of Bulgaria, accompanied by For- eign Minister Petur Mladenov, visits Japan. (U) 14-22 March J. Douglas Anthony, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for National Resources and Overseas Trade, visits To- kyo to discuss economic and trade ties. (U) 14 March The Japan Socialist Party opens itsfcon- gress to discuss the party program 1978. (U) 15-16 March Deputy US Defense Secretary Charles Dun- can visits Tokyo. (U) 16 March Carlos J. Valdes, newly appointed Philip- pine Ambassador to Japan, presents his credentials. (U) 22-30 March Colonel Atsushi Shiam, a member of the Intelligence Division of the Ground Self- Defense Force (SDF), is scheduled to 21 March 1978 14 SECRET Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7 Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 SECRET 22-30 March visit the Japanese defense attache in Peking. This is the first visit to China of an active duty SDF officer. (U) 28 March A 19-member Chinese economic mission, led by Lin Hu-chia, Vice Chairman of the Shanghai Municipal Revolutionary Commit- tee, is scheduled to visit Tokyo to dis- cuss applying Japan's technology to China's new modernization program and further developing bilateral trade. (U) 15 SECRET Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Secret Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Secret Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 25X1 D Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7 Next 7 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912AO02200010008-7