EAST ASIA BIWEEKLY REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010008-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 25, 2002
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: March 21, 1978
• Content Type: NOTES

National
eaVSW enltease 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79T00912A0022000100~oe,,retR,-,,,CONTRACT
Center
East Asia
Biweekly Review
Secret
RP EABR 78-007
21 March 1978
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EAST ASIA BIWEEKLY REVIEW
21 March 1978
CONTENTS
The Philippine Parlimentary Elections
at midpoint.
Australia: Accord on Uranium.
uapan: Selected Chronology . . _ . . . .
NOTE: A supplement to today's edition of EAST ASIA BI-
WEEKLY REVIEW has been published and disseminated in
special intelligence channels.
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington community by
the East Asia/Pacific Division, Office of Regional and Political Analysis, with
occasional contributions from other offices within the National Foreign Assessment
Center. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to the authors
of the individual articles.
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The Philippine Parlimentary Elections at Midpoint
With parliamentary elections less than three weeks
away, there has been a dramatic rise in the level of
public interest in the prospects for the opposition
slate of candidates in the manila area--particularly
former Senator Benigno Aquino's chances of winning a
seat in the new national assembly.
Although assured of an electoral victory, Marcos
is concerned over private polls suggesting that Aquino
is consistently among the top two or three votegetters
in Manila. Only Mrs. Marcos appears to be ahead of him
at this reading.
President Marcos, who took over personal direction
of the government party's campaign in Manila, has thus
far remained aloof from all of the controversy and de-
bate surrounding Aquino's campaign. Shrewdly playing
the statesman's role--spotlighted by last week's visit
of Chinese Vice Premier Li Hsien-nien--Marcos has opted
to let Defense Secretary Enrile carry the burden of the
government's attack against Aquino.
Campaigning from his prison cell, Aquino was per-
mitted to appear on a 90-minute "Face the Nation" tele-
vised interview on 10 March during which he responded to
Enrile's charges concerning alleged CIA and Communist
connections. Aquino's interviewers were clearly out-
classed and found few if any weak spots in his version
of events. Indeed, his performance--respectful of Marcos
and moderate in his criticism of martial law--was by
most accounts highly effective.
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The opposition slate in Manila led by Aquino has
shifted its campaign rallies from college campuses to
working-class neighborhoods and has attracted increasingly
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large crowds. With Aquino's active entry into the cam-
paign fray, the opposition in Manila now appears to have
a strong chance of winning a number of the 21 seats at
stake in the metropolitan area. Any effort by Marcos
to silence Aquino at this point would probably gain even
more popular sympathy for the opposition.
Marcos may now feel that he has gone some way in
attempting to shed an image as a dictator who brooks no
opposition. However, the Philippine President may also
now realize that it will be increasingly difficult for
the government slate to defeat Aquino without some fairly
obvious dishonesty--and it may be equally difficult to
deny him his seat in the legislature if he wins the
election. Marcos has publicly hedged any guarantees
regarding Aquino by asserting that whether the former
senator would be allowed to sit in the new legislature
if elected was a matter for the courts to decide.
Against this background, it seems likely that the
campaign in Manila will become even more intense and
polemical in the final days before the 7 April elections,
with Marcos doing everything possible to discredit Aquino
and hopefully limiting the government's losses in Manila.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
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Australia: Accord on Uranium
Prospects are improving for an accord between the
Liberal-Country government and the opposition-supported
labor movement that could end the national debate over
exploiting Australia's uranium, one-fifth of known world
reserves. The Fraser government's agreement to work
with the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) in
formulating nonproliferation safeguards on exported
uranium could remove the last political constraints to
Australia's becoming a major supplier. Even with a polit-
ical accommodation, however, production problems will
delay Australia's reaching its export potential.
The powerful labor federation last month endorsed
the resumption of uranium mining and sales on condition
that the government consult with it on controls against
use in nuclear weapons. A positive government response
was not at all certain, given the ingrained adversary
relationship between all Liberal-Country governments and
the Labor Party - supported trade union movement. Coop-
eration between the government and the ACTU, whose presi-
dent--Bob Hawke--is also president of the Labor Party,
reflects a shared recognition of the importance uranium
earnings could have in reviving Australia's troubled
economy.
Concern over contributing to nuclear proliferation
has slowed implementation of Prime Minister Fraser's
decision of last August to lift the predecessor Labor
government's ban on uranium mining and export. Leftists
in the Labor Party and the trade union movement played
upon popular misgivings, although Hawke and then party
parliamentary leader Whitlam saw the economic promise
of uranium. These divisions within the Labor Party,
plus the Liberal-Country government's reading of public
unease, held each side back from making uranium an
issue in the national election campaign last fall.
The ACTU's conditional endorsement of mining last
month was a signal victory of Hawke over labor union
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leftists, and the government's willingness to discuss
safeguards will help him win out over the diehards. Even
though there is little love lost between Hawke and Fraser,
Hawke echoed government arguments that uranium jobs
could ease record unemployment, and he pointed out that
opposition was centered in leftist-led unions not in-
volved in uranium production.
The flouting last month by railway and dock workers
of their leaders' bans on handling uranium shipments
suggested a growing understanding among workers of the
economic benefits of uranium production. This month,
leftwing Melbourne labor leaders--vociferous and occa-
sionally violent foes of uranium development--were given
a sharp rebuke when Melbourne longshoremen backed the
ACTU's uranium decision by a 3 to 1 vote.
With the trend toward greater public acceptance of
uranium mining, the government probably can make a con-
vincing case that contracts with foreign buyers will
contain strong safeguards over use of the uranium. Bureau-
cratic sluggishness and claims by aborigines on lands
where new mines may be opened remain major stumbling
blocks, however. Deputy Prime Minister Anthony warned
two weeks ago that Australia may default on one-fourth
of its export commitments through the mid-1980s.
(CONFIDENTIAL NOFORN)
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Japan: Selected Chronology
21 February Former Japanese Agriculture-Forestry Min-
ister Zenko Suzuki visits New Zealand for
talks with Prime Minister Muldoon and
Deputy Prime Minister Talboys regarding
New-Zealand's desire to increase exports
of dairy products to Japan. (U)
22-27 February Five members of the Liberal Democratic
Party, led by Iichiro Yamanouchi, fly to
Seoul at the invitation of the ruling
Korean Democratic Party. (U)
23 February Taro Miyamoto, a member of the Central
Committee of the Japan Communist Party
(JCP), arrives in Hanoi as the JCP's
resident representative. (U)
Tomohiko Kobayashi, Deputy Director Gen-
eral of the UN Bureau, is appointed As-
sistant Secretary of the OECD. He will
be replaced at the UN by Atsuhiko Yatabe,
Minister at the Japanese Embassy in
Vienna. (U)
27 February- Denmark's Foreign Minister Knud Borge
1 March Andersen arrives for talks with govern-
ment officials on ways to reduce Japan's
trade surplus with the European Community.
(U)
4 March Kiyoaki Kukuchi, the new Japanese Ambas-
sador to Singapore, presents his creden-
tials. (U)
9-19 March Minoru Masuda, Vice Minister for Interna-
tional Affairs of the Ministry of Inter-
national Trade and Industry, joins a
Japanese trade mission, led by Yoshizo
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9-19 March Ikeda, President of Mitsui and Co., to
participate in talks in Washington with
US Government officials. (U)
10-18 March A five-member Komeito mission, led by
Secretary General Junya Yano, leaves for
Peking for a goodwill visit. This is
Yano's first visit to China. (U)
12-15 March Takashi Tajima, director of the Foreign
Ministry's China Division, visits Peking
for consultations with Japanese Ambassador
Sato regarding the resumption of negotia-
tions on a Japan-China treaty of peace
and friendship. (U)
13 March Toshikazu Maeda, the Japanese Ambassador
in Kabul, presents his credentials. (U)
13-19 March Todor Zhivkov, President of the State
Council of Bulgaria, accompanied by For-
eign Minister Petur Mladenov, visits
Japan. (U)
14-22 March J. Douglas Anthony, Australian Deputy
Prime Minister and Minister for National
Resources and Overseas Trade, visits To-
kyo to discuss economic and trade ties.
(U)
14 March The Japan Socialist Party opens itsfcon-
gress to discuss the party program 1978. (U)
15-16 March Deputy US Defense Secretary Charles Dun-
can visits Tokyo. (U)
16 March Carlos J. Valdes, newly appointed Philip-
pine Ambassador to Japan, presents his
credentials. (U)
22-30 March Colonel Atsushi Shiam, a member of the
Intelligence Division of the Ground Self-
Defense Force (SDF), is scheduled to
21 March 1978
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22-30 March visit the Japanese defense attache in
Peking. This is the first visit to China
of an active duty SDF officer. (U)
28 March A 19-member Chinese economic mission,
led by Lin Hu-chia, Vice Chairman of the
Shanghai Municipal Revolutionary Commit-
tee, is scheduled to visit Tokyo to dis-
cuss applying Japan's technology to China's
new modernization program and further
developing bilateral trade. (U)
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