EAST ASIA REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010033-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 25, 2002
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: November 28, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

National cronfidential
d Iipei4elease 2002/05/07: CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010033-9'
Assessment
Center
East Asia
Review
Confidential
RP EAR 78-007
28 November 1978
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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STATOTHR
STATOTHR
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EAST ASIA REVIEW
28 November 1978
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Military-Civilian Relations . . . . . . . .
Deferring treatment in Army and party news-
papers of a recent party directive on mili-
tary schools points up that some military
leaders are dissatisfied with the Army's
economic role and are only halfheartedly
implementing some civilian orders.
Indonesia: Food and Population Assessment. . ... . . 4
Since 1967 the Indonesian Government has
achieved considerable success in slowing
population growth in Java and Bali and in
stimulating rice production, but the overall
food-population balance has not improved.
Japan: Selected Chronology . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
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Vietnam: Military-Civilian Relations
Differing treatment in Army and party newspapers
of a recent party directive on military schools points
up that some military leaders are dissatisfied with the
Army's economic role and are only halfheartedly, imple-
menting some civilian orders. While hardly a new phe-
nomenon--and probably not serious--military-civi.liarn re-
lations may have become a bit more strained as Hann-i. has
attempted to marshal its limited resources to meeet. , eri-
ous economic and international problems.
The directive itself, which was issued by the party
Central Committee secretariat, incorporates the Army-run
military, party, and technical schools into 7ietnaamm' s
general school system. Overall responsibility for over.-
sight and management is given to the party secretariat
and the Council of Ministers. The central party com-
mittee of the Army and the Ministry of Defense apparently
retain joint responsibility for day-to-day administration,
but exercise it with the guidance of four other civilian
ministries and departments.
In discussing the directive, an editorial. in the
Army newspaper on 2 November strongly implied that some
in the military opposed the integration of the two school
systems and resented the increased civilian supervision
it represents. The editorial called, on "all. wilitary
echelons" to implement the "spirit" of the directive as
well as its letter. Plans to carry it out must be
"positive" and reflect a "high sense of responsibility."
The editorial in the party newspaper on the same
day indicated that the differences extended -to the proper
role of the Army. The Army newspaper portrayed the di-
rective as aimed at improving the Army's fighting capa-
bility. The party newspaper, however, stressed the
Army's economic and reconstruction role, which has been
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emphasized since the fall of Saigon in 1975. The p?xrty
newspaper stated that while Army personnel must acquire
military knowledge, they must also have knowledge of
other fields "to properly perform their tasks of en-
gaging in socialist construction."
The Army is clearly sensitive about the implied
civilian criticism of its performance in the directive.
The Army editorial referred only to vague, unspecified
shortcomings in the old system and implied that the
basic rationale for the directive was to ensure uniform-
ity of instruction. The civilians, however, were more
direct in the party newspaper, in effect accusing the
military of such abuses as:
Ignoring regulations everyone must follow.
Following a political training program at
variance with the party program.
Slighting scientific, technological, and cul-
tural instruction while overemphasizing mili-
tary subjects.
Reluctance to change standards to meet the
Army's new role.
The adjustment to the post-1975 period may be par-
ticularly difficult for some military professionals. The
Army has been assigned a major economic and reconstruc-
tion role, and many talented cadres have been reassigned
to essentially nonmilitary duties in the south. The
growing war with Kampuchea and the increased threat
from China apparently have not led to a significant les-
sening of the Army's economic responsibilities, and some
may believe they are being asked to do much more with
a lot less.
The directive--if efficiently implemented--could
conceivably reduce the burden on the military, but the
tone of the Army editorial suggests that many in the
military see the directive only as more civilian med-
dling. The fact that the directive empowers four ci-
vilian ministries and departments to assist the military
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in running its school system would seem to confirm the
military's worst fears. Given the Vietnamese bureaucracy's
penchant for administrative disputes, a smooth implemen-
tation of the directive is unlikely. Moreover, the
Army newspaper makes clear that the military schools
must "rely on their own means" to bring themselves up
to standard. The absence of significant state aid will
limit the effectiveness of the directive. (CONFIDENTIAL)
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Indonesia: Food and Population Assessment
Since 1967 under President Suharto the Indonesian
Government has achieved considerable success in slowing
population growth in Java and Bali and in stimulating rice
production. Nevertheless, the overall food-population
balance has not improved, and public confidence in the
regime's ability to relieve the age-old problems of hun-
ger, population growth, unemployment, and social inequity
appears to be waning.
Population Policies and Problems
Indonesian leaders implemented a family planning
program in the early 1970s. Aided by Suharto's contin-
ual and enthusiastic support and the active participa-
tion of leaders at the village level, the endeavor met
with success on the inner islands of Java and Bali,
which account for nearly two-thirds of the total popula-
tion. Fertility levels dropped from an estimated 5.3
children per woman in 1967-70 to 4.5 in 1976--an unusual
decline to occur without the presence of the socioeco-
nomic indicators normally considered essential. The pro-
gram was expanded in 1974 to include 11 provinces of
the outer islands, and the remaining outer island pro-
vinces will be brought into the program in 1979.
The outer islands have long been viewed as a safety
valve for the densely populated inner islands. Despite
the outer islands' lower population density, their esti-
mated 50 million population exceeds the total population
of any other Southeast Asian nation, and the natural
increase is high. In addition, through its migration
program, the government hopes to resettle large numbers
of families from the inner islands and to invest in
economic and agricultural development to make the outer
islands producers of surplus food. The government is
finding, however, that the best lands have already been
settled and that agricultural development of the less
favorable lands is limited by a variety of environmental
and socioeconomic factors.
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Progress in implementing the family planning program
on the outer islands has been slow, and unless the program
succeeds in lowering the very high average fertility rate
there, the increases to total population contributed by
the outer islands may limit future economic development
for all Indonesia.
Major problems associated with Indonesian population
growth are lack of productive employment opportunities,
inequality in income distribution, rapid urban growth,
and malnutrition. Every year 1.5 million people are
added to the labor force, and the creation of new jobs
has not kept pace with this rapid growth. Both unemploy-
ment and underemployment are widespread. Spontaneous
migration of young underemployed rural laborers in
search of greater economic opportunities is fueling the
rapid growth of the largest cities. Jakarta has been
expanding at more than twice the national growth rate,
and the levels of unemployment and underemployment
existing there are high. About 40 percent of all employed
persons in Jakarta are engaged in trade and service ac-
tivities that offer very low wages.
Low incomes and unemployment are largely responsible
for a high incidence of malnutrition. Nearly half of
all Indonesians consume on the average only 75 percent
of the minimum nutrition levels set by the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization. Consumption levels appear to
be about the same today as they were in the early 1960s,
with rice supplying more than half of all calories and
about half of all protein in the average Indonesian's
diet.
Agricultural Development
Through its five-year development plans the govern-
ment has taken measures to increase foodcrop production
by introducing high-yielding varieties of seeds, increas-
ing the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and improving
irrigation and cultivation techniques. The main emphasis
has been on stimulating rice production in order to
stabilize rice prices, a measure perceived by the govern-
ment as necessary to attain economic stability and to
decrease the nation's dependence on rice imports. The
narrow emphasis on. rice production, however, has led to
the neglect of other staples, and per capita production
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of these staples has declined. Crop yields have also
been adversely affected by land mismanagement associated
with the extension of cultivation to nonirrigated and
nonterraced upland slopes.
The gap between grain production and consumption
not only continues but appears to be widening. During
the past decade Indonesia has depended on imports for
about 10 percent of its total grain needs, and in the
past two years the share has increased to more than 13
percent. By 1985 market demand for rice is likely to
exceed 22 million metric tons, while rice production
will probably be about 18.7 million metric tons. Given
these projections, rice imports totaling almost 4 million
tons will be needed in order to meet demand in 1985.
Nevertheless, such imports will not fulfill minimum nu-
trition requirements since market demand does not re-
flect the total caloric requirements of the lowest income
groups.
Economic Trends
Indonesia currently has a strong balance of payments
position, with a comfortable but not high level of inter-
national reserves. Export earnings from oil are level-
ing off, however, and Indonesia faces a period of some
uncertainty because of changing conditions in exploration
and marketing. In addition, the rate of increase for
nonoil exports is expected to drop from 15 percent in
1977-78 to 8 percent in 1978-79. Although the outlook for
exports is somewhat uncertain, it is clear that the
availability of foreign exchange, at least for a time,
will be more of a constraint on imports than it has been
since 1974.
Indonesia has strong incentives to limit the growth
of food imports. Continued heavy dependence on imports
will leave the nation seriously vulnerable in the event
of a severe crop failure and a worldwide grain shortage;
Indonesian imports in the past three years have averaged
more than 15 percent of total world rice exports, and in
1977-78 the Indonesian share was 25 percent. Larger food
imports will reduce the foreign exchange available for
imports of other goods needed to accelerate economic
development.
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Details of the third five-year plan to begin in
April 1979 have not been released. The need for a major
push in agriculture is clear, but less clear are the
particular investment options and courses of action that
will be taken in order to achieve a sustained increase
in food production. In the next few years funds will
probably continue to be directed toward intensification
of irrigated agriculture on Java; for the longer term,
emphasis will probably be placed on investment geared to
developing the outer islands' potential. Options in
technology transfer that would dramatically increase
food production in the short term are not available.
Furthermore, adaptation of new agricultural technology
will be limited by the inefficiency of government insti-
tutions, a lack of trained manpower, and the existence
of many farms too small to generate the capital required
to purchase modern technology.
Outlook
Whatever food policy objectives the government
chooses to follow, effective policy implementation will
depend in large part upon the commitment and ability of
the Suharto government to effect institutional reform
from the national policy level on down to the local
level. A desire to remedy the institutional problems
was signaled by cabinet changes in March 1978.
Rice supplies and prices have strong psychological
and political significance to Indonesians; rice prices
are a barometer of general economic conditions. Without
adequate government-held rice supplies to inject into
the market, particularly in the urban areas, the price
of rice can escalate rapidly. The government is well
aware that rioting has erupted in the past when suffi-
cient quantities of rice were not available to urban
consumers at a price they could afford; it demonstrated
in 1977-78 that in a crisis it will attempt to procure
sufficient rice to maintain the ceiling price and thereby
forestall civil unrest. An extended production short-
fall coupled with insufficient external supplies could
overtax its ability to meet these goals, however, result-
ing in sharp price increases and possible civil disorder.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
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Japan: Selected Chronology
(CONFIDENTIAL)
11 October Nepalese Finance Minister Bhekh
Bahadur Thapa, home after a 10-day
tour of China, Japan, and Thailand,
disclosed that Japan and Nepal had
agreed to open an air route between
the two countries.
11-13 October Soviet-Japanese negotiations end in
the signing of a joint memorandum
for further expansion of trade.
13 October Japan and Bangladesh sign a five-
year agreement on the extension of
Japanese technical cooperation for
projects of the Central Extension
Resources Development Institute.
14 October Dutch Foreign Minister Christoph van
der Klaauw visits Japan.
16 October Japan has arranged for a grant of up
to $4.5 million to Afghanistan for
construction of educational facili-
ties and a food program.
18 October Former South Korean Premier Kim Chong-
pil and a 148-member delegation ar-
rive in Tokyo to attend the second
joint general meeting of the Japan -
South Korea friendship associations
of both countries to be held on 20
October. Kim meets Prime Minister
Fukuda.
28 November 1978
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19 October Japan extends a $165 million loan to
Egypt as part of its economic cooper-
ation in Egypt's development projects.
It is to be repayable over 30 years,
including a 10-year grace period.
22-29 October Chinese Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-p'ing
visits Japan to exchange with Prime
Minister Fukuda the instruments of
ratification of the Japan-China peace
and friendship treaty. He is the high-
est ranking Communist Chinese leader
ever to visit Japan.
24 October Kyodo News Service and the Wam News
Agency of the United Arab Emirates
sign an agreement.on news exchange
and cooperation. The agreement will
be in force for one year and is renew-
able on a year-to-year basis. It
brings to 34 the number of news ex-
change agreements.
With a view to promoting exchanges
between Japan and China, Japanese
business concerns establish an indus-
trial, technological, and cultural
center in Tokyo.
Masahisa Takigawa, Japan's Ambassador
to Sweden, is appointed concurrently
to Iceland.
24-27 October A 44-member Doshikai (Comrade
Association) mission of the Liberal
Democratic Party, led by Morio Sasaki,
visits Taipei.
25 October Cambodian Vice Premier Ieng Sary stops
over in Tokyo on his way home to con-
fer with Foreign Minister Sonoda.
Ieng Sary said that Cambodia's Ambas-
sador to Peking, Pich Cheang, will
be appointed concurrently to Tokyo
at an early date.
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25-30 October President of the Kyodo TSUSHIN Agency,
Takeji Watanabe, visits Moscow at the
invitation of TASS. While there he
signs a protocol on development of
cooperation between the two news
agencies.
26 October A Soviet trade union delegation,
headed by Vasiliy Prokhorov, deputy
chairman of the All-Union Central
Council of Trade Unions, arrives in
Tokyo to have talks with leaders of
the Japanese trade union centers.
Japan's NTV Corporation President
Yosoji Kobayashi visits Bulgaria.
27 October Akira Watari is appointed deputy
director general of the Defense
Agency. Keiichi Ito, director of
the Defense Bureau, will be promoted
to secretary general of the National
Defense Council. Toru Hara, director
of the Finance Bureau, will replace
Keiichi Ito. Katsumi Takeoka, chief
of the secretariat of the Defense
Facilities Administration Agency,
will conduct talks with US defense
authorities on the sharing of expen-
ditures of US bases in Japan.
A protocol is signed with the Soviet
Union's All-Union Fishing and Shipping
Association in implementation of an
agreement that the Japanese and Soviet
Governments reached this April while
negotiating bilateral fishery cooper-
ation.
Mashairo Maeda is appointed Ambassador
to the Dominican Republic. Mintru
Takeda is appointed Ambassador to
Laos. Fumiya Okada is appointed Am-
bassador to Jordan.
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28 October External Economic Affairs Minister
Nobuhiko Ushiba leaves for the US to
meet with US special trade represen-
tative Robert Strauss on 30 and
31 October for another round of minis-
terial level talks on bilateral trade.
28 October - Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister
9 November and Trade and Industry Minister
Dr. Mahathir visits Japan.
30 October A 10-member delegation of Swedish
parliamentarians, led by Parliament
Speaker Henry Allard of the opposition
Social Democratic Labor Party, visits
Japan at the invitation of the Japa-
nese Diet.
Japan's big-six steelmakers send a
high-level mission to Peking for
rolled steel supply talks. The
mission is to offer to supply the
Chinese with about 2.5 million metric
tons of rolled carbon steel for ship-
ment in the first half of 1979.
30 October - Mexican President Jose Lopez Portillo
4 November and his wife make an official visit
to Japan. An agreement was signed
for a nearly $1 billion loan package
and general agreement on Japanese
purchase of Mexican oil in exchange
for development assistance.
2 November Kensuke.Yanagiya is appointed director
general of the Foreign Ministry's
Asian Affairs Bureau succeeding Yosuke
Nakae, who will become Counselor for
Foreign Affairs in the Ministry.
2-3 November A two-day session of the joint Czech-
oslovak-Japanese economic committee
is held in Prague. A protocol is
signed on bilateral cooperation in
the sphere of engineering, chemical,
consumer goods, and food industries.
28 November 1978
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2-8 November Australian Industry and Commerce
Minister Phillip Lynch visits with
Japanese Government and business
leaders.
3-5 November Japan Socialist Party Chairman Ichio
Asukata leads a 15-member delegation
to a general meeting of the Socialist
International (SI) being held in Van-
couver, Canada, to discuss the world
economy, disarmament, and the South
African situation. Asukata was named
as a new SI vice president.
5-8 November French Foreign Minister Louis de
Guiringaud holds regular ministerial
consultations with Foreign Minister
Sonoda in Japan.
5-10 November Irish Foreign Minister Michael
O'Kennedy has talks in Japan with
Japanese leaders on international
and bilateral problems.
6 November US Energy Secretary James Schlesinger
meets Prime Minister Fukuda in Japan.
7 November Tsutomu Wada is appointed Ambassador
to Iran. Ryoko Ishikawa is appointed
Ambassador to Ireland. Isaburo Muku-
moto is appointed Ambassador to
Uruguay.
8 November Japan will extend up to $1 million in
grant aid to Tonga to assist in the
country's nutrition improvement proj-
ect.
8-9 November Japanese-Polish private economic talks
ended with the signing of a memoran-
dum calling for the visit to Japan of
Polish experts and the establishment
of working groups for industrial co-
operation between the two countries.
28 November 1978
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9-13 November Peruvian Economics and Finance Minister
Javier Silva Ruete visits Japan to
ask for Japan's help to reestablish
his country's economic situation.
9-15 November Foreign Minister Sonoda visits the
UK, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. He
is the first Japanese Foreign Min-
ister to visit East Europe since 1967.
13-19 November A mission of heads of Diet policy
committees of various parties, ex-
cluding the Japan Communist Party
and the Social Democratic League, led
by Shoichi Miyaka, deputy speaker of
the House of Representatives, visits
China at the invitation of the Stand-
ing Committee of the National People's
Congress.
15-19 November Piotr Jaroszewicz, Premier of Poland,
visits Japan.
16 November The General Council of Trade Unions
of Japan (SOHYO) sets up its Euro-
pean office in Paris in order to pro-
mote exchanges with labor unions in
advanced capitalist nations. The of-
fice is headed by Mitsuo Tomizuka,
SOHYO Secretary General.
At a meeting held between the
Democratic Socialist Party and
the visiting Secretary General
Bernt Carlson of the London-based
Socialist International, it was
decided to put the secretariat
of the Socialist International's
chapter for the Asia and Pacific re-
gion in Japan and to hold its first
Asian congress somewhere in the re-
gion next year.
16-18 November Japanese ambassadors stationed in
the Middle East meet in Paris to dis-
cuss recent developments in the region.
28 November 1978
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16-30 November Tadateru Konoe and his wife Yasuko,
daughter of Prince Mikasa, visit China
at the invitation of the China-Japan
Friendship Association. This is the
first time that relatives of the Im-
perial Family have visited China since
the war.
17 November Yosuke Nakae is appointed Ambassador
to Yugoslavia.
The Ministry of International Trade
and Industry announces that 47 enter-
prises, including the nation's leading
petrochemical firms, will set up a
private research company to study the
feasibility of building a huge ethylene
plant in Saudi Arabia. The research
firm, temporarily called Saudi Petro-
chemical Development Co., will be formed
in Tokyo around the end of November
or in early December.
18 November Negotiations between Japan and the
Soviet Union to decide the catch quo-
tas in 1979 in their respective 200-
mile fishery zones get under wa-y at
the Foreign Ministry.
21-24 November Sir Murray Maclehose, governor of
Hong Kong, arrives in Tokyo to join
a top-level economic mission from
the crown colony that had arrived on
19 November.
23-30 November A seven-member delegation of the Demo-
cratic Socialist Party headed by
Chairman Ryosaku Sasaki visits China.
28 November 1978
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27 November Masayoshi Ohira wins the primary
phase of the Liberal-Democratic Party
presidential election, which in effect
gives him the Prime Ministership.
Italian Foreign Minister Arnaldo For-
lani attends the fourth regular con-
sultations with Foreign Minister
Sonoda to be held on 28-29 November.
Number of seats held by Democratic
Socialist Party in lower house of
Japanese Parliament reduced to 27 by
death of Ittoku Tamaki.
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