CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SOVIET BLOC

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00935A000200140002-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 2, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 15, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

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G5
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SOVIET BLOC
CIA/RR IM-367
15 September 1952
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL COMM INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAW, TITLE 18, USG, SECS.
793 AND 79i, THE TAN 1ISSION OR F LATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MA R TO MT UNATEO D PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
C Tt P1 7"f T1 T
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FOREWORD
The following report on the condition of growing crops in the
Soviet Bloc is the result of the analysis of information on weather
and other factors affecting yield that was available on 30 June for
the USSR and 31 July for the European Satellites and China. As a
qualitative report it reflects, in a general way, the prospects for
the food supply of the Soviet Bloc for the consumption year 1 July
1952 through 30 June 1953. Quantitative estimates of production
based on acreage as well as yield will be made in a later report.
Until then, these general statements regarding conditions affecting
crop development are indicative of the Bloc's field crop potential
as of the dates specified.
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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . n . . . . . . 1
I. USSR . . .
II. European Satellites . . . . . . 4
. . . . . O d O O O .
1. Northern Area (East Germany, Poland, and Czecho-
slovakia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ? a 9 O O O
4
2. Southern Area (Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria,
III. China . .
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CIA/RR IM-367
(ORR Project 49-51)
CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SOVIET BLOC
Considering the Bloc as a whole, crop production for 1952 is
expected to be about equal to that of 1951? Production in the USSR
and China may exceed 1951, and that of the European Satellites is
expected to be lower. If current prospects are realized, the food
position of the USSR and China will be relatively more favorable
than in any year since World War II. On the other hand, the current
drought throughout the European Satellites may appreciably decrease
their food supplies.
USSR.
Based on weather and crop information available as of 30 June 1952,
crop conditions in the USSR were as favorable as, if not slightly
better than, crop conditions as of the same date in 1951. The 1951
crop was the largest since the war, reaching 87 percent of the 1935-
39 average annual production of grain.
During the sowing and growing season there was considerable varia-
tion in weather conditions among the various regions of the USSR. In
general, the late summer and fall of 1951 were characterized by below-
normal precipitation. Snowfall during the first part of the winter,
through. January, appears to have been light, but in succeeding months
the amount of snow increased considerably in many areas.
Growth of grains was retarded this spring by cool weather, and
the heading stage occurred 1 to 3 weeks later than last year. A cold
spell occurred in mid-May, quite similar to that experienced in
May 1951. The cold spell does not appear, however, to have been of
sufficient intensity to damage grains, but it definitely had a retard-
ing effect on crop development.
In 1951, precipitation was below normal in July and August in
much of the important potato and sugar beet area, and yields were
thus adversely affected. Precipitation and temperature conditions
at that time are critical in their effect on potato and sugar beet
yields, and tuber and root formation occurs during these months. As
of 1 July, growth conditions did not appear to be favorable in Belorussia
and the Baltic Region, which are important potato-producing areas.
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Growth conditions in the North Ukraine and Central European USSR, impor-
tant potato and sugar beet areas, were somewhat better.
European Satellites.
As a result of an adverse growing season, the outlook, as of
30 July, for the 1952-53 food supply in Eastern Europe, is not so
good as the prospect was on the same date in 1951. Corn, sugar, meat,
fats, and oils will probably be in shorter supply during the 1952-53
food consumption year than in 1951-52.
Agricultural production in 1952 will be below 1951, a year in
which grain production equaled or nearly equaled the prewar level.
The production of bread grains will be slightly less, and coarse
grains (primarily corn) may be substantially below 1951 should the
present drought persist. Yields of root, forage, and industrial crops
also will suffer from this drought.
Growing conditions in China and Manchuria through July 1952 may be
regarded as having been average, or perhaps slightly above average.
The wheat harvest was good; prospects are favorable for rice; and, if
current growing and harvesting conditions continue, the 1952 food
production will probably exceed the 1951 level.
I. USSR.
In the Ukraine, precipitation in June was greater in 1952 than in
1951, although amounts in May were slightly less than in 1951. In
view of the somewhat later development of the grains in 1952, the in-
creased June precipitation was beneficial. Crop prospects in the
Ukraine thus appear to be fully as favorable as last year. Information
obtained from the Soviet agricultural press and other sources tend to
confirm this favorable outlook.
In the North Caucasus, precipitation in May and June appears to
have been sufficient to insure good yields. Crop prospects compare
quite favorably with those of 1951. Agricultural officials of the
American Embassy on a trip to this area in early July reported that
fall-seeded grains in the Kuban appeared in excellent shape. In certain
other areas of the North Caucasus, fall-seeded grains appear to be more
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spotty because of the dry fall in 1951, and efforts have been made to
reseed some of these areas this spring.
Crop conditions in the Volga area are better in 1952 than they
were at the corresponding time in 1951. May and June precipitation
was above normal in much of this area and in places considerably above
normal. There were reports of a dry fall in 1951, but, during the
winter, areas which normally have very little sno-wrcover received sub-
stantial amounts of snow.
Precipitation in May and June in the Central Black Soil Belt of
central European USSR appears to have been sufficient in most oblasts
to insure a good crop, perhaps better than in 1951. The eastern
oblasts of this belt in particular had substantial amounts of precip-
itation. In the remaining oblasts of Central European USSR, precip-
itation in May was above normal in many oblasts. Precipitation in
June was less than in the oblasts of the Central Black Soil Belt but
generally greater than in June 1951. In view of the delayed season,
an increase in precipitation in July in this area would assume greater
significance in determining the ultimate yield. The oblasts adjoin-,
ing the Baltic Region and Belorussia had less than normal precipita-
tion, and crop conditions in these oblasts 8 ?e not very favorable.
In Belorussia and the Baltic Region a dry fall in 1951, followed
by a winter with less-than-normal snowfall and far-below-normal
precipitation in the critical months of May and June 1952, substan-
tially reduced crop prospects. The combined precipitation in May
and June in much of this area appears to have been less than 3
inches US Embassy agricultural officials traveling in Belorussia
in mid Maley commented on the delayed spring and the short uneven growth
of fall-seeded rye. Pastures also were reported to be less lush than
at the same time last year. All grain yields in this area probably
will be less than last year, particularly winter grain yields.
Precipitation in the Urals in. April 1952 was greater than in April
1951 but precipitation in May was less throughout the whole area. In
June, precipitation was greater than in 1951 in the northern oblasts
but less in the south. As of 30 June, conditions on the whole do not
appear to be quite as favorable as they were at the corresponding time
in 19510 However, in view of the delayed season, the precipitation in
July will assume greater significance this year.
In West Siberia and northern Kazach SSR, precipitation in April
was slightly higher in 1952 than in 1951 but less in May and June.
Reports from this area are more sparse than in the areas described
previously, but on the basis of reports received thus far the crop
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prospects on the whole do not appear to be exceptionally favorable.
Increased precipitation in July could do much to remedy this situa-
tion.
II. European Satellites.
In order to simplify the presentation and to group countries having
similar cropping systems, conditions, etc., the European Satellites
have been divided into two areas -- northern and southern. The northern
area includes the following countries. East Germany, Poland, and
Czechoslovakia; the southern, Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria, and Albania.
to loo bern Area (Est GeM.Lny, Poland, and Czechoslovakia).
A drought in the fall of 1951 (September and December) reduced
the sown acreage and adversely affected germination of winter-sown
grains (wheat and rye) throughout most of the area. Poland probably
suffered more than East Germany or Czechoslovakia. Deep-plowing plans
were ' aunt fulfilled: that is, official Czech statements claimed that
the machine-tractor stations (NITS) had completed only 50 percent of
their work as of 6 December 1951.
Spring plowing and planting operations were delayed by snow,
rain, and cold weather in February, March, and the first part of
April. Favorable planting weather prevailed, frown 15 April to approxi-
mately 17 May, when an abnormal 2-week period of cold and rain with
frost swept over most of the area. The frost damaged early vegetables
and fruit crops and retarded the growth of cereals.
Incomplete weather data indicates normal and below-normal
amounts of precipitation for the months of June and July, respectively.
Although low precipitation and high temperatures in July were favorable
conditions for harvesting, the lack of soil moisture could prove serious
for late-planted vegetables (some replanted as a result of May frost),
coma, forage, and root crops. Poland, as of 30 July, had experienced
a 5-week period with little or no rain.
Grain yields probably will be slightly less than in 1951 be-
cause of the unfavorable planting and growing season for winter
grains. Should the present dry spell continue into August, a severe
reduction in yields of corn, potatoes, sugar beets, and forage crops
will occur.
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2. Southern Area Hungry, Rumania aria, and Albania).
The fall of 1951 was characterized by below-normal precipita-
tion. This made deep plowing difficult and conditions for the germina-
tion of fall-sewn grains unfavorable. However, fall sowing plans were
claimed by the respective governments to have been fulfilled.
Unseasonable cold and rainy weather during March and the first
half of April delayed spring field operations. Frost occurred in
various sections of Hungary and Rumania in the middle of May, causing
damage to vegetables, fruit trees, root crops, and corn. In many sec-
tions of Hungary, and probably Rumania, corn had to be replanted. The
low temperatures retarded the growth of small grain but had no serious
effects upon yields.
The last week in June and the month of Jelly were characterized
by low precipitation and high temperatures, which were particularly
good for the development and harvesting of bread grains, barley, and
oats. With reserves of soil moisture low, however, if this dry spell
continues, yields of root crops, corn, forage, and sunflowers may be
materially reduced. Corn damage will be particularly serious in
pia and Albania, since in these countries the farm population is
dependent upon corn for human food as well as for animal feed.
The yields of all crops probably will be less than in 1951,
when above-average postwar yields were obtained because of very
favorable growling conditions, particularly for both bread and coarse
grains.
Weather in China and Manchuria through July may be regarded as having
been average, indicating that production may be equal to and probably
greater than that in 1951. The wheat harvest was good, and prospects are
favorable for rice.
After a winter with little rain and snowfall, which is normal,
favorable weather prevailed throughout the country in May, producing
what might be called a bumper wheat crop in North Kiangsu, Hopei.,
Ronan, and Anhwei provinces which produce about 40 percent of China's
wheat. Weather in Sam, an important wheat-producing province in
the Southwest, has been average. Floods in North Szechwan and drought
in South Szechwan are coon, and there is no evidence that crops have
been materially reduced.
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The Coists attributed the good wheat harvest to higher yields
and an increase in acreage. Production and acreage percentages announced
by the Chinese Co ists do not, however, substantiate the 03j ax of
better-than-average yields. It is thought that some successes in the
water conservancy programs (for example, the Huai Ho project) have con-
tributed to the successful harvest, although the extent cannot be deter-
mined.
Previous fears of drought in East China -- in Kiangsu and North
Anhwei -- were dispeli.ed as a result of constant rainfall during the
first few days of r which was conducive to the early growth of
summer sown crops.
The early crop in Hamra., the rice bowl of China, was at its head-
ing stage in mid-June, 15 days earlier than in previous years. The
crop was in a vigorous condition, and the yield is expected to be large.
Three ccaparative3y large floods occurred in parts of Hunan between the
early part of April and the latter part of May. Floods are common in
Hunan at this time of year, however, and damage to crops is not expected
to be unusual. Seasonal rainfall in early July led to anticipation of
an abundant early paddy harvest.
A serious dry spell developed in Hunan following the wheat harvest,
but sowing of summer crops can be delayed in most of the wheat region
until 10 or 15 July. As of 23 July, it was announced that summer sowing
bad been successfully ccapleted in Honan, North Kiangsu, North Anhwei,
Shantung, Pingruan, Hopei, Shansi, and Shensi provinces. Summer crops
include corn, millet, kaoliang, sweet potatoes, and tans, which occupy
over 4+5 percent of the total farmland in most of the a Bove-naffed prov-
inces.
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