PRODUCTION AND UTILIZATION OF WOOL IN THE SOVIET BLOC 1952

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• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
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• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 18, 1953
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
PRODUCTION AND UTILIZATION OF WOOL
IN THE SOVIET BLOC
1952
CIA/RR IM-372
18 May 1953
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAW, TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 794+, TEE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
Gil
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(ORR Project 21.3.1)
PRODUCTION AND UTILIZATION OF WOOL IN THE SOVIET BLOC*
1952
Summary
Wool production in the Soviet Bloc has maintained a slow upward
trend since World War II, reaching the prewar level in 1951 and ex-
ceeding it in 1952. The weight of wool obtained in 1952 is estimated
at 244,000 metric tons.** This yield is less than 10 percent greater
than the estimated prewar yield, although sheep numbers are more than
20 percent greater than prewar numbers. The difference represents a
lower yield of wool per sheep. Fleece weight and quality have not
recovered from wartime losses of high-quality wool-bearing sheep and
from wartime negligence in breeding, nutrition, and management.
As a result of a large increase in wool production in Asiatic
USSR, wool production has risen more rapidly in the USSR since World
War II than in other countries of the Soviet Bloc. Even though wool
production in the European Satellites has recovered less rapidly, it
is greater than prewar production. Wool production in Communist China
is still below prewar levels.
All the Soviet Bloc countries plan increases in sheep numbers in
the next few years. On the whole, the implied increase in Bloc wool
production (to an estimated 428,000 metric tons) appears unattainable,
although some of the European Satellites probably will achieve their
plans. Only the USSR has announced targets for wool production. The
Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) projects large gains both in the average
yield per sheep and in sheep numbers, gains which, if achieved, would
more than double wool production in the USSR between 1951 and 1955,
bringing it to almost 330,000 metric tons. Actual wool production in
the USSR in 1955 is expected to fall far short of this goal.
This memorandum contains information available as of 31 March 1953.
Estimates of wool given herein include both apparel and carpet wool
(grease basis). All figures for wool production and sheep numbers are
summarized in Table 3, Appendix A. These data do not represent meas-
ured quantities but are estimates and approximations. The range of
fluctuation in estimates is no less than plus or minus 3 percent.
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About 17 percent of the wool utilized in the Soviet Bloc in 1952
was used by agriculture, since it was too coarse for economical
processing by the woolen industry. Of the remaining 207,000 metric
tons which were processed, 173.4 thousand metric tons (83.8 percent)
were produced domestically, and 33.6 thousand metric tons (16.2 per-
cent) were imported. The Soviet Bloc is likely to remain dependent
on these imports for some years if domestic and military consumption
of woolen products is to be maintained at current levels. The amount
of apparel wool produced in the Bloc is more than adequate, however,
to supply current military requirements, which are estimated at
19,000 metric tons a year.
a. Production.
Prewar wool production in the area now constituting the Soviet
Bloc, estimated at 223,000 metric tons, dropped during World War II
(1941-45) to about 210,000 metric tons. Since the war,. wool produc-
tion has maintained a slow upward trend, approaching a total of
228,000 metric tons in 1951. Wool production in the Soviet Bloc
countries in 1952 is estimated at 244,000 metric tons, an increase
of approximately 16,000 metric tons (7 percent) over the 1951 produc-
tion figures.
The USSR has remained the chief source of wool production in
the Soviet Bloc area, accounting for 59 percent in 1938 and 65 percent
in 1952. The area of the European Satellites produced 23 percent of
the total in 1938,* and 21 percent of the total in 1952. Prewar
production in China amounted to about 18 percent of the total; 1952
production in China, to about 14 percent of the total.
b. Sheep Numbers.
Since the end of World War II, sheep numbers in the Soviet
Bloc countries have increased steadily and were estimated at 142 mil--
.lion head at the beginning of 1952, an increase of 15 percent over
* For purposes of comparison, figures for wool production in those
areas now composing the European Satellites have been combined.
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numbers at the beginning of 1951 and 22 percent over prewar numbers
in the same area.
c. Average Clip per Sheep.
The 1952 clip per sheep in the Soviet Bloc was generally below
prewar levels despite efforts to raise the low level during the post-
war period. Comparative figures for 1938 and 1952 are shown in
Table 1.
Trend in Average Clip per Sheep in the Soviet Bloc
1938 and 1952
1938
1952
Change
Country
(Kilograms)
(Kilograms)
(Percent)
USSR
2.05
1.70
-17
European
Satellites
1.96 of
1.89
- 4
China
1.57
1.58
+ 1
Soviet Bloc
1.92
1.71
-11
a. Those areas currently included in the European
Satellites.
2. 1952 Production.
Wool production in the USSR proper for 1952 is estimated at
158,000 metric tons, an 8-percent increase over the 146,000 metric
tons produced in 1951 and a 20-percent increase over the 132,000
metric tons produced in 1938.
During the prewar period, European USSR produced about 62
percent of the country's wool. Only about 45 percent of the wool
currently produced in the USSR comes from European USSR. The most
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important wool-producing regions* in European USSR are the Ukraine
Region, the Southeast (Lower Don-North Caucasus) Region, the Volga
Region, and the Central Region. In 1952 these 4 regions produced
about 84 percent of the wool in European USSR and 37 percent of the
wool in the entire USSR. The other 6 wool-producing regions in
European USSR yielded only 8 percent of the total Soviet production.
Asiatic USSR has assumed a greater importance than European
USSR as a wool-producing area since the prewar period. In 1952, wool
production in Asiatic USSR amounted to 55 percent of the total Soviet
wool production. This production represents a substantial gain over
prewar figures, which indicate that this area produced only 38 per-
cent of the total Soviet production in 1938. In 1952 the Kazakhstan
Region produced about 24 percent of the wool in the USSR; the
Central Asiatic Region, 14 percent; and the Transcaucasus Region,
7 percent. The Urals area** and West Siberia regions combined pro-
duced 7 percent. The regions of East Siberia and the Fax East
combined produced only 3 percent of the total Soviet production.
b. European Satellites.
The European Satellites produced about 51,000 metric tons,
or 21 percent, of the total wool production for the Soviet Bloc in
1952. Rumania, producing 46 percent of the total European Satellite
production in 1952, and Bulgaria, producing 28 percent, are the chief
wool producers in the European Satellites.
c. Communist China.
Communist China produced about 34,000 metric tons, or
about 14 percent, of the total wool production for the Soviet Bloc
in 1952. Sheep numbers and wool production have not yet reached
their prewar level.
* The term region in this memorandum refers to economic regions aS
defined and numbered on CIA Map 12048.1, 9-51 (First Revision,
7-52), USSR: Economic Regions.
*- East of the Ural.Mountains.
- 4 -
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3. Future Plans.
Planned wool production in the Soviet Bloc for 1955 is estimated
at 428,000 metric tons (grease basis), an increase of approximately
200,000 metric tons (88 percent) over the 1951 total and an increase
of about 205,000 metric tons (92 percent) over prewar production.
On the whole, the implied increase in Bloc wool production appears
to be unattainable, although some of the European Satellites prob-
ably will achieve their aims.
The Soviet 1955 Plan envisions a 60-percent increase in sheep
numbers and an average clip of 2.53 kilograms per sheep. If this aver-
age clip is attained by 1955, wool production would be 329,000 metric
tons, which is more than double the estimated 1951 production.
It is believed that the planned increases in sheep numbers
are unrealistic. Sheep numbers for 1952 were near the record high,
and the capacity of ranges and pastures as well as roughage resources
are insufficient to maintain the planned increases in all classes of
livestock at the same time. The planned increase in sheep numbers
would, of necessity, require a downward revision of the 1955 numbers
planned for other classes of livestock, except possibly for swine.
The planned wool production for 1955 is also unrealistic.
The average clip per sheep may be increased by better breeding,
nutrition, and management practices, but a practical effectuation
of the Plan requires a longer period than the time allotted. For
example, the clip per sheep in the USSR is still below the prewar
level despite efforts to increase wool production since the end
of the war.
An average of 2.53 kilograms per sheep will be impossible
to attain in 3 or 4 years, because a large percentage of the sheep
in the USSR are of the coarse-wool type. In the US, where the per-
centage of medium- and fine-wool sheep is larger, clip per sheep
averages almost 4 kilograms. Even in the US, however, increases
in clip per sheep from year to year are relatively small.
b. European Satellites.
The European Satellites have confined their planning to
sheep numbers, and not all of the countries have plans extending
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to 1955. Plans of Albania, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania propose an
increase in sheep numbers to almost 20.6 million head by 1955, or
about 22 percent above the 1952 level of 16.9 million head. It is
believed that the planned increases in sheep numbers can be accom-
plished in all of these countries except Hungary. The 1955 Hun-
garian Plan, which envisions an increase of 265 percent during the
1952-55 period, is unrealistic. The Bulgarian Plan, which envisions
an 11-percent increase during the 1952-54 period, probably cannot be
attained, because of the reduction in sheep numbers caused by the
1952 drought. Czechoslovakia plans to increase sheep numbers to
600,000 head by 1953, about 13 percent greater than 1952 numbers.
This planned increase is- probably a little higher than can be at-
tained. East Germany plans to increase sheep numbers to about 1.7
million head by 1955, or about 37 percent greater than the 1952
production of 1.24 million head. It is believed that these planned
increases can be attained.
Wool production plans of the European Satellites are not
available. However, wool production should increase at relatively
the same rate as sheep numbers or perhaps slightly more rapidly if
emphasis is placed on better nutrition and management practices.
c. Communist China.
Agricultural planning in Communist China does not extend to
1955. The 1952 Plan for Communist China called for an 18-percent
increase in sheep numbers, but wool production was not indicated.
If clip per sheep remained at the 1951 level and the planned
sheep numbers were attained., wool production in 1952 is estimated at
36,000 metric tons, or about i4+ percent less than the prewar produc-
tion of 4-1,000 metric tons.
Sheep numbers have increased slowly since the war in Com-
munist China and have not yet reached their prewar level of 26 mil-
lion head. Because of the limited feed and pastures, it is not
likely that sheep numbers were increased by 18 percent in 1952 along
with planned increases in other classes of livestock.
4. Current Utilization.
The 1952 total current supply (production and imports) of wool
in the Soviet Bloc countries is estimated at about 277,000 metric
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tons (grease basis). Indigenous production supplied 23,500 metric
tons, or 88 percent of the total, requiring net imports of about
33,600 metric tons, or 12 percent.
If all the wool produced in the Soviet Bloc countries were of
suitable quality for processing by the woolen industry, it would.
more than fulfill the domestic and military needs for manufactured
woolen products. Table 2 shows the estimated current utilization
of wool in the Bloc countries in 1952.
Table 2
Current Utilization of Wool in the Soviet Bloc
1952
End Use
Quantity
(Thousand Metric Tons)
Percent
of Total
Agriculture
42
17
Household
163
65
Military
19
8
Industry
25
10
Total 249 aJ
a. A total of 28,000 additional metric tons is
left available for accretion and stocks.
About 17 percent of the currently utilized wool was too coarse
for economical processing by the woolen industry and was utilized
by agriculture. Of the remaining 207,000 metric tons (83 percert)
which were processed, 173,400 metric tons (83.8 percent) were pro-
duced domestically, and 33,600 metric tons (16.2 percent) were im-
ported.
It is believed that the Soviet Bloc countries will not be able
to produce enough apparel wool to fulfill domestic and military
requirements for manufactured woolen products for a number of years
to come. If the unrealistic 1955 planned wool production were at-
tained, there would not be a deficit of apparel wool provided domestic
military consumption of woolen products remained at about current
levels.
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It is estimated that after other utilizations of the 1952 produc-
tion and imports have been accounted for, the Soviet Bloc had enough
wool or woolen products (28,000 metric tons, grease basis) available
for accretion and stocks. Such a quantity would be sufficient to
supply current military needs (19,000 metric tons) for about 1-1/2
years.
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Except for the sources noted below, all figures for wool pro-
duction and sheep numbers are based upon estimates made by CIA and
the Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations, US Department of
Agriculture. These estimates, in turn, are based upon Soviet sta-
tistics collated and used in previously published CIA and OFAR
reports.
In addition to the sources noted above, the following sources
were used in the compilation of this memorandum: the New York Times,
"The Fifth Five Year Plan," New York, 23 Aug 1952, p. ,~ and FBIS,
No. 214, Far East, 30 Oct 1952. R.
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CONTENTS
Summary ? ? ? ? ?
1. Postwar Trends . . . . . . .
a. Production . . . ? ? . . . . . 2
b. Sheep Numbers . . . . ? ? ? ? ? . ? ?
c. Average Clip per Sheep . . . . . ? . . . 3
2. 1952 Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . . . . . 3
a. USSR 3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
b. European Satellites . . . . . ? ? ? ? ? ? 4
c. Communist China . . 4
. . . . . . . . .
3. Future Plans . ? . . . . . . 5
. . . . . . . . . . .
a? USSR 5
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
b. European.Satellites 5
. . . . . . . . . . .
c. Communist China . . ? ? . 6
. . . . . . . . . . .
4. Current Utilization . . . . . . . . 6
Apperidixe s
Appendix A. Sheep and Wool: Numbers, Production, and
Planned Production in the Soviet Bloc, 1938,
1951, 1952, and 1955 Plans (Table 3) . . ? 9
Appendix B. Sources ? ? . ? ? . . ? . . . . ? ? . . . . 13
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