DEVELOPMENTS IN FORESTRY AND FOREST PRODUCTS IN THE SOVIET BLOC, 1953 CIA/RR IM-394 10 SEPTEMBER 1954

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• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Document Page Count: 32
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 10, 1954
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
DEVELOPMENTS IN FORESTRY AND FOREST PRODUCTS
IN THE SOVIET BLOC, 1953
CIA/RR IM-394
10 September 1954
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING TEE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS., TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
US OFFICIALS ONLY
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FOREWORD
It is not intended that this memorandum be a definitive study
of the timber industry in the Soviet Bloc. Discussion and analysis
are therefore confined to the most significant developments in
forestry and forest products in the Soviet Bloc during 1953 and the
first quarter of 1954.
Many of the numerical data appearing in this memorandum do not
represent measured or weighed quantities. They are estimates and
approximations based on an appraisal of all available information..
The range of error is generally within the range of plus or minus
5 percent.
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CONTENTS
Pate
Summary . . r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Introduction . . . . . . . 3
II. USSR . . . . . . . . . .
4
A. Organization and Key Personnel 4
B. Production 5
C. Trade . . . . . . . . . . 9
U. Consumer Goods Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
E. Afforestation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
F. Cork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
III. European Satellites . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . 15
A. Production . . . 15
B. Afforestation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . :1 *0 . . 16
0. Cork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
IV. Communist China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
A. Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . . . 17
B. Afforestation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . . . 19
C. Cork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . 19
Appendixes
Appendix A. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . 21
Appendix B. Sources and Evaluation of Sources . . . . ., . . . 25
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Tables
Page
1. Fulfillment of the Gross Production Plan
for Timber and Paper by Specified M:Lnist ies
in the USSR, 1951, 1952, and 1953 . . . . *1 . . . . . . . 7
2. Exports of Wood and Wood Products from th USR
and the BF,ltic States, 1929-33 . . . . . . . . ? . . 9
3. Exports of Wood and Wood Products from th USSR,
1946-52 . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . 10
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CIA/RR IM- 394 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 21.155)
DEVELOPMENTS IN FORESTRY AND FOREST PRODUCTS
IN THE SOVIET BLOC, 1953*
Summary
As the economy of the Soviet Bloc** continued to expand during 1953,
the need for wood and wood products increased. Supplies of wood ready
for use, however, were inadequate, even though the total 1953 production
of timber*** in the Bloc amounted to an estimated 485 million cubic meters,
a considerable increase over the total 1952 production of 473 ;million
cubic meters. The 1953 production consisted-of 272 million cubic meters
of industrial wood**** and 213 million cubic meters of fuelwood.*****
The USSR produced about 79 percent of the total industrial wood
and about 80 percent of the total fuelwood of the Soviet :Bloc. The
European Satellites produced 40 million cubic meters of industrial
wood and 28 million cubic meters of fuelwood, and Communist China
produced the remainder -- 17 million cubic meters of industrial wood
and 15 million cubic meters of fuelwood.
After World War II the timber industry in the USSR consistently
lagged behind the other sectors of the economy. It failed to meet
production goals and, consequently, acted as a brake on those sectors
which depend on wood for construction and operation.
Communist China continued to increase production of timber by means
of large investments that opened up new forest areas. Based on plan
fulfillment claims in 1952 and goals for 1953, production of industrial
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum
represent the best judgment of the responsible analyst as of 1 July 1954.
** Soviet Bloc as used in this memorandum includes the 1JS,3R,
Communist China, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary,
Poland, and Rumania.
*** Total production of timber is defined as total output of
all roundwood.
**** Industrial wood is all wood not used as fuel -- sawl.ogs, pitprops,
pulpwood, and the like.
***** Fuelwood is all wood used as fuel.
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wood is estimated to have increased from 12 mil ion cubic meters in 1952
to about 17 mill:-on cubic meters in 1953. It is estimated that the output
of industrial wood will reach from 18 million to 22 million cubic meters
in 1954. Increasing construction throughout Communist China will
emphasize the neo.essity for adequate supplies of building timber.
The European Satellites are continuing a high level of forest
exploitation. Estimated output of industrial wood in 1953 was 40
million cubic meters, 59 percent of the total output of timber. It is
estimated that production of industrial wood ir 1954 will be from 42
million to 44 million cubic meters; the emphasis will be on construction
timber. Shortages of certain wood products, however, have plagued
many of the Satellites. East Germany, for example, has suffered from
shortages of pitprops and railroad crossties.
Soviet Bloc trade in wood and wood product;
imports and exports by the USSR. The majcr So'
was an estimated 1.55 million cubic meters (ra
of wood from Finland, and total Soviet exports
about 1.6 million cubic meters. Increasing in
and wood products will probably keep Soviet ex
mately the 1950-53 level, some 1.7 million cub
would be advantageous politically or economica
increase exports.
consists largely of
iet import factor in 1953
ndwood equivalent*)
during that year were
ernal needs for wood
ports in 1954 to approxi-
c meters, unless it
ly for the USSR to
Production cf industrial wood in the USSR,{according to the
original plan, is scheduled to reach an estimated 253 million cubic
meters in 1955. Planned :;roduction for 19541 16.7 percent greater
than 1953 production, which would mean about 2,1 million cubic meters
in 1954 -- close to the 1955 goal. Labor diffLculties and inefficient
use of equipment, make it unlikely that the goa. will be attained.
Probably thE: most vulnerable componen': of the Soviet timber industry
is labor. In some areas, from 60 percent to 80 percent of all timber
workers are political, criminal, or war prisoners. Living and working
conditions in the free-labor logging camps, including those operated
by the Ministry of Timber Industry, have been little better than
conditions in the prison camps. I
* Roundwood equivalent is derived by conversion of the various end
products of wood back to the raw material (ro ndwood) used in their
manufacture. For example, 1 metric ton of newsprint is equivalent
to about 3 cubic meters of roundwood.
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Long-range afforestation projects continue to receive much attention
in the European Satellites and Communist China, despite what appears
to be a curtailment of such projects in the USSR.
Development of natural cork in the USSR and Communist China and
synthetic cork in the European Satellites indicates an effort by the
Soviet Bloc to become as nearly self-sufficient as possible in cork,
a highly strategic commodity. The decline of Soviet cork purchases
in the Mediterranean area in 1953 may be a reflection of the development
of internal production of cork or an indication that reserves of cork
are considered sufficient.
I. Introduction.
The timber industry of the Soviet Bloc was particularly hard hit
by World War II. Damage from military operations, wartime overcutting,
and general disregard of forest management resulted in widespread.
forest devastation. Logging installations and wood-processing facilities
in the areas of actual military operations were largely destroyed.
Large quantities of timber were needed for reconstruction after the
war, and intensive efforts were made to meet the demands. The estimated
total timber production of the Bloc rose from a pre-World War II level
of about 410 million cubic meters to 440 million cubic meters in 1946
to about 480 million cubic meters in lY 3. Output of fuelwood declined
after the war from an estimated pre-World War II level of 255 million
cubic meters to about 220 million cubic meters in 1953. These shifts
in production reflected the increased use of more efficient fuels and
need for diversion of increased supplies of wood to nonfuel use.
Industrial wood output in the Soviet Bloc increased from a pre-World
War II level of 155 million cubic meters to 272 million cubic meters
in 1953. The 1953 output of industrial wood was achieved in some areas
by continued overcutting of forest reserves. This was particularly
true in some of the European Satellites and in some parts of European
USSR. In other areas, forests that had been previously inaccessible
were opened up for exploitation.
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Throughout the Soviet Bloc, attempts are being made to reach a high
level of forest utilization with the greatest possible cut and the least
possible waste. Deforested areas are being r planted, and afforestation
is being pushed in the European Satellites anChina. Greater efficiency
in processing will be stressed in order to increase supplies of finished
products.
Since potentialities in each of the Sovie{ Bloc areas differ, the
USSR, the European Satellites, and Communist China will be considered
separately in. this memorandum.
II. USSR.
A. Organization and Key Personnel.
In March 1953, in line with other, ministerial changes, the
Ministry of the Timber Industry and the Ministry of the Paper and Wood
Processing Industry were merged to form the M nistry of the Timber and
Paper Industry, which was responsible for the felling and transport
of roundwood from the forests and the fabrication of wood p:roducts.
In April 1954 the Ministry of the Timber and Paper Industry was
separated into the Ministry of the Timber Industry and the Ministry
of the Paper ar.d Wood Processing Industry.
Althou?;h the primary consideration for the combination of timber
and paper and other ministries appears to have been a move by Stalin's
heirs to stren?;then their control over the USSR, the consolidation was
not illogical. Timber and paper are closely Linked, since the timber
industry is they source of supply of the majorjraw material used by the
paper industry, In fact, the two have been joined and separated a
number of times since their creation, having been separated in 1940,
joined in 1948;, and separated again in 1951.
In Apr-..l 1954, 13 months after the c oabination in March 1953, the
Ministry of `the Timber and Paper Industry wads again split. G. M. Orlon
resumed the post of Minister of the Timbee.L? Industry. Fedor Dmitriyevich
Varaksin became Chief of the Ministry of the Paper and Wood. Processing
Industry. The:'e is little in Varaksin's background, except long
service as a Deputy Minister of the Ministry !of the Timber Industry,
to suggest why he was selected for his preset position.
Although the final outcome is still riot clear, the possibility of
a shakeup in the high command of the Ministry of the Timber Industry
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must be considered, since a high-level change would probably affect the
production of the ministry. How G. M. Orlov, Minister of the Timber
Industry, has managed to remain in his post so long is difficult
to explain. His ministry has been severely criticized in press and
radio year after year for failure to fulfill its plans and for failure
to provide the nation with needed raw materials. Orlov has :personally
been the target for much criticism.
The consolidation in March 1953 provided an ideal opportunity
to oust Orlov; not only did he keep his position, however, but in April
1953 he received his second Order of Lenin, the nation's highest award.
It was speculated that Orlov was a member of the Beriya faction, since
he had come up from the former NKVD.* Orlov nonetheless remained after
Beriya's execution and is still Minister of the Timber Industry after
the separation in April 1954 of timber and paper.
B. Production.
In 1953, the USSR was responsible for about 79 percent of the
total timber production of the Soviet Bloc, an estimated 385 million
cubic meters,** compared to an estimated Bloc total of 485 million
cubic meters. The USSR accounted for about 79 percent of the total
Bloc industrial wood output and for about 80 percent of total Bloc
fuelwood output in 1953. The USSR (present boundaries***) with its
vast forest reserves will continue to be the major Bloc producer and
in the long run may well become the major source of raw material for
the woodworking industries of the rest of the Bloc.
Strenuous efforts have raised production of industrial wood in the
USSR from 80 million cubic meters in 1946, to an estimated 215 million
cubic meters in 1953. Production is estimated to have increased nearly 11.4
* Orlov was awarded his first Order of Lenin, 30 April 1943,, for
his work as Chief of the Soviet Chief Directorate of Industry Construc-
tion (Glavpromstroy) of NKVD.
#* See Appendix A, Methodology for the derivation of production
estimates.
*** Soviet present boundaries include the boundaries of 1938 plus
the territories subsequently acquired from Finland, the Baltic States,
Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania.
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percent above the 1951 level of 193 million cubic meters, or an average
increase of abcut 5.7 percent per year. As a~whole, the timber industry
in the USSR has made great strides since the mnd of World War II. It
has, neverthelEas, acted as a brake upon the entire Soviet economy by its
failure to provide the quantities of wood and'wood products required
for reconstruction in war-damaged areas and fror the expanding civilian
and military economies. Lack of wood has hanpered both industrial and
consumer const:?uction. This lack has made implementation of the recent
consumer goods and agricultural decrees, ann unced in the fall of 1953,
extremely difficult.
The original goal of the Fifth Five ear Plan (195:1-55) called
for productior of industrial wood amounting o an estimated 253 million
cubic deters in 1955. By the middle of 1953 it was evident that the
lagging rate of increase in wood production rendered it improbable
that this goat. could be attained. Press and radio criticism culminated
in a decree on "the Liquidation of Lagging the Timber Industry." V*
Although the decree may have stimulated increased efforts in the fall
of 1953, work,:rs in the industry were still unable to meet, the goals set
up for that calendar year.
The reorganized 1 inistry of the Tim} er and Paper :industry
fulfilled the 1953 gross production plan 931percent. Q/ This percentage
figure is, however, deceptive. In 1951, m d'i1952, timber and paper
production were the responsibilities of two! separate' ministries, the
Ministry of the Timber Industry and the Ministry of the Paper and Wood
Processing Industry. Since the two ministries were reorganized and
consolidated in March 1953, the 1953 f:igur includes gross production
for both the timber and paper sectors. F fillment of the Ministry's
1953 timber )utput plan --? that is, the ac ual felling and haulage of
timber -- is undoubtedly below 93 percent,, probably in the high 80's.
This seems a reasonable assumption in view'of the criticism of the timber
industry during 1953 and the underfulfillm nt of the 1953 plan for
"transport cf commercial (industrial) wood'.**~
FootnotE references in arabic nu-.erals are to sources listed-in
Appendix B.
The processing capacity and opera-,ion f woodworking plants of the
timber industry do not appear to have bee so much the cause of the
difficulty as was the removal of the :rounc rood from the forest. The 1953
report on plan fulfillment emphasizes tha the fundamental difficulty
is getting the timber felled and out of tI.e forest.
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0n a gross plan basis, the high-value paper production (for which
the 1953 plan was exceeded) /,/ would tend to offset somewhat the low
timber production. Table 1 shows the gross plan production fulfillment
for the years 1951-53, and indicates how this situation may have come
about:
Fulfillment of the Gross Production Plan for Timber and Pa>er
by Specified Ministries in the USSR 1J
1951, 1952.and 1953
Ministry 1952 i2fl
Timber Industry 94 90
Paper and Wood Processing 103 102
Timber and Paper
93
In early 1954 the short-lived Ministry of the Timber and Paper
Industry was again resolved into the Ministry of the Timber Industry
and the Ministry of the Paper and Wood Processing Industry.
Of the total 1953 Soviet timber production of some :385 million
cubic meters, industrial wood is estimated at 215 million cubic meters,
or 56 percent, and fuelwood is estimated at 170 million cubic meters,
or,44 percent. These estimates include output of large state producers,
and local gathering by settlements and individuals.*
The Ministry of the Timber and Paper Industry was responsible
(based on information available for previous years) for 40 percent to 55
percent of all wood felled and hauled according to state plans, or as
much as 44 percent of the total 1953 production of 385 million cubic
meters. The Ministry's failure to meet the 1953 goal brought severe
* Planned timber production figures published in the USSR usually do not
include sizable quantities of wood, primarily fuelwood, gathered by
cities, settlements, collective farms, and individuals for :Local and
personal use.
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reprimands for high production costs, inefficient use of machinery, low
productivity par labor unit which resulted irk underfulfillment of consumer
goods producti