1954 CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SOVIET BLOC

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00935A000300070005-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: October 15, 1954
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
1954 CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SOVIET BLOC
CIA/RR IM-400
15 October 1954
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 791i, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
This memorandum is an analysis of the condition of growing crops.
in the Soviet Bloc and is based on available information about weather
and other factors affecting crop yields in the Soviet Bloc. As a
qualitative statement, it reflects in a general way the prospects for
the food supply of the Soviet Bloc for the consumption year 1 July
1954 through 30 June 1955. Quantitative estimates of production,
based on acreage as well as. yield,. will be made in a later report.
The general statements contained in this memorandum regarding con-
ditions affecting crop development are indicative of the field crop
potential of the. Soviet Bloc as of mid-July 1954..
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary .
I USSR
. . . . . . . . . . . a . . . . .. . . . . . o n .
II. European Satellites .
A.. Northern Area (East Germany, Poland)
and Czechoslovakia). . . . ? , . 5
B.. Southern Area (Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria,
.
and Albania) ? . . . . . . . . . o a 7
o o .
III- Communist China . .
o..... ..0,,........... 8
IV. Communist Vietnam
Appendix
Sources o o o
. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . 1,. . . 13
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CIA/RR IM-400
(ORR Project 21.451)
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1951. CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SOVIET BLOC*
ummary
Crop production in 195 in the Soviet Bloc is tentatively esti-
mated to vary from about the same as in 1953 in the USSR and slightly
below in the European Satellites to considerably below 1.953 in Com-
munist China. Generally speaking, the efforts of the USSR and the
European Satellites during the first year of the "new course"to raise
agricultural production have not been successful, It is estimated
that in -these two areas the food situation, on a per capita basis,
will be less favorable than in 1953. Communist China, where there
has been a serious drop in, production as a result of floods, is faced
with a prospect of famine in various areas in the spring of 19550
Weather and crop information as of 31 July 195+ indicates that
yields of major crops will vary from somewhat less than last year's
to about'the..samebut as a result of a general increase in acreage
,of the important food and fiber .crops, actual production. of major
crops will probably-be?close to the 1953 level.**
. Grain production probably will not be above last year's relatively
poor harvest, even though there has been a grain acreage expansion of
some 5 percent. Because of an extensive drought focused. in the Ukraine
but affecting other areas of the European USSR as well, the average
grain yield will probably be less than last year's. The better-than-
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum repre-
sent the best judgment of the responsible analyst as of 18 August 1954.
** 1953 production of grain was below the 3 previous years. Potatoes
and sugar beet production were below 1952. Cotton production was
equal to the postwar high in 1951.
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average yields in West Siberia and northern!Kazakhstan, where the new
acreage expansion program is under way, will not fully offset the
poor harvest :b.n other areas.
The potato and sugar beet crops, largel' concentrated in the
European USSR, suffered because of the May-4une drought, but they
may have reco,.rered fully because of above-average July rains. As
of 1 August 1954 it is too early to estimate definitely the prod-ac-
tion prospects. of these two crops. It is believed; however, that
production mar be about the same as it was ast year.
{
The cotton crop has been hampered by uavorable weather both in
the irrigated and unirrigated zones. Altho gh acreage was sig-
nificantly expanded, especially in the irrigated areas, it is be-
lieved that o?rer-all production will be about the same as last
year's.
The prose,?ct6-for a rise in per capita ood intake are dim for
the 1954-55 consumption year. Unless the government releases con-
siderable reserves of grain and other food ~roducts and/or transports
food from surplus areas to relieve the irou$ht-stricken areas of the
Ukraine, by the spring of 1955 there may beifamine conditions in
parts of the Central Ukraine and perhaps in other localized areas.
Because of a poo ,. harvest .f,-hay and straw 1a the drought areas. and a
lagging of fodder accumulations in other arias, livestock numbers
and. livestock productivity will not increas enough to raise meat
and. dairy profluct consumption -- with the passible exception of
temporary local increases resulting from heavy pre-winter slaughtering.
The Ukraine (Region III)* has suffered from a major drought during
the important stages of this year's crop development. Early growth
of fall-sown grains, hindered by a lack of 4ummer and fall moisture,
had. not developed fully by the advent of winter.--As a result, one
of the coldes-, winters on record caused an 4bnormal amount of winter
kill of fall-,3own grains and required eaten ive resowing this spring.
A late spring, coupled with a below-normal accumulation of soil
moisture rese:-res, made both fall- and spring-sown grains vulnerable
to poor growi:ig.conditions during the criti~al months of May and June.
In late May &id all of June the combination of high temperatures and
term rri,. on in this report refers to the economic regions de-
fined and numbered on CIA Map 12048.1, 9-51(First Revision 7-52)
USSR: Economic Regions.
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rainfall far below normal created drought conditions seriously re-
ducing grain yields. Agricultural officers of Embassy Moscow,
after an extensive survey of crop conditions in the Ukraine have
estimated that crop yields will not exceed two-thirds of average.
If the corn crop was not rejuvenated by July rains it may have
suffered further damage, and yields of corn possibly will be less
than one-half of average.
? In the Southeast (Lower Don- North Caucasus -- Region IV) grain
yields apparently range from poor to good. The drought conditions
affecting the Ukrainian grain harvest extend over into the Lower
Don regions of Western and. Northern Rostov and the Northern Kuban'
(Krasnodar Kray), Embassy Moscow observers indicate that the corn
crop :is probably a near failure in the Lower Don area near the Azov
Sea and that small grain yields will be about one-half of average.
Counterbalancing these poor yields are much better prospects for the
rest of.the Kuban' and North Caucasus area, where adequate soil
moisture reserves from the fall-winter season, combined with good
May rains, have resulted in fair to good yields. Grain yields (in-
cluding.corn) probably will be average for the important Southern
Kuban.' area and the Stavropol' Kray and will be above average in
the southeastern provinces along the Caspian Sea. As a whole,
average yields for this important area will. probably be about the
same as in 1953 but considerably below the excellent yiel.d.s of 1952.
In the Transcaucasus (Region V), yields of grain may be somewhat
better than in 1953 and 19520 Embassy Moscow travelers indicate good
crop conditions in Azerbaydzhan SSR. and the Georgian SSR.
The West Baltic and Belorussia (Regions Iia and Iib) also
have been partially affected by drought this year. Grain yield
prospects are believed to be below 1953, which -- in turn were
below the long-run average.
In the Central Region -- (Region VII) the prospective grain
yields are believed to be somewhat above average but about, the same
as last year. Normal. to above-normal May rainfall, preceded. by an
adequate accumulation of soil moisture from the fall-winter season,
probably was sufficient to withstand the hot and dry June weather.
After a series of field trips through the southern two-thirds of
this region, including the important Central Black Soil lone, the
agricultural officers from Embassy Moscow report crop conditions
as fair to good. Apparently only the southern half of Voronezh
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Oblast has suffered from the same drought conditions that seriously
reduced Ukra:Lnian grain yields. The Centr4l Region in general is
susceptible -;o poor harvesting conditions.' If harvesting is pro-
longed becau.;e of inclement weather, the actual yield may be lower
than is presently indicated.
In the Volga Region -- (Region VI) yields of winter grains prob-
ably will be better than in 1953. Moisture} reserves as of late May
are believed to have assured a relatively $iigh yield of winter grains
such as has occurred in the last two years.' Spring grain yields may
be slightly 1~etter than last year's.
In the Urals Region (Region VIII), gain yields possibly
will be the same as in 1953, which :Ln turn -- was a better-
than-average year.
West Siberia (Region IX) and the northern parts of Kazakhstan
(Region Xa) are the regions in which the la,d reclamation program
initiated this year for the expansion of gratin acreage has been
most intensively carried out. Although there has been a lack of
uniformity in weather conditions over this ~rea during May, June,,
and. July, it is believed that growing conditions have been generally
good. Pre-spring sowing moisture accumulations probably -Were above
average, andnany areas have had above-normal precipitation during
the growing season. Despite some tardinesslin spring sowing because
of inclement -weather and the confusion atte$ding the orga:a.ization
of work on ne-,r areas, crops are believed tojhave developed nor-
mally; the somewhat below-normal June - July temperatures aiding
normal plant development. As of 1 August 1954, yield prospects
are both better than average and better than in 1953. The actual
harvested yield will depend on late August ,nd September, when
there is often poor harvesting weather -- ii .cludi.ng the possibility
of early snow;; . Since the 1954 growth pattern is somewhat late,
early fall weather conditions may determine !the size of the crop.
II. European .satellites
On the ba!;is of weather and crop inf ormtion as of 15 August
1951+, it is expected that the over-all crop !production of the
European Satellites in 1951+ will be slightl less than in 1953,*
1953 crop production was better than 19521 production for most of
the area, but below 1951 and prewar levels. l
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Most of the reduction will result from lower yields of bread grains,
oats, barley, early vegetables, and fruity Weather conditions dur-
ing the latter part of August and September will determine whether
or not yields of corn, root crops, late vegetables, and forage crops
will. be above 1953 levels. Insect infestations, plant diseases, and
inadequate weed. control caused by frequent rains and low temperatures
could result in extensive damage and reduction in yields to late crops,
but the situation cannot be appraised accurately at this time.
The fall and winter of 1953 was characterized by below-normal pre-
cipitation and low temperatures, which caused underfulfillment of
fall plowing and sowing plans; and by a. lack of snow cover, which
caused extensive damage to winter wheat and barley. Conditions in
the spring were no better, retarding spring planting by 2 to 4 weeks
and retarding the development of fall- and spring-planted crops.
:miring. the latter part of June and the first 2 weeks of July, rain
caused a delay in the harvest and threshing of fall-sown grains. This
delay is expected to result in high harvesting losses and a reduction
in the quality of the grain. In addition, the wet fields have pre-
vented proper cultivation, weeding of row crops, and drying of cut
hay. The increase-in soil moisture, however, should be 'beneficial
for late crops (potatoes, sugar beets, and corn).
In order to simplify the regional presentation and to group coun-
tries, having similar crop systems, the European Satellites have been
divided into two areas -- northern and southern.
Northern; Area (East Germany Poland, and Czechoslovakia).
In the northern area of the European Satellites the weather
in the fall of 1953 was very dry. In contrast to the fall of 19521
when the weather was extremely wet, thereby interfering with field
work, the warm, dry weather which prevailed during the fall .and
early winter months (September - December 1953) was more favorable
for the sowing of winter grains and for plowing. Because of the lack
of adequate moisture in some areas, however, the seed planted early
did not germinate, and reseeding was required..
The 1953 winter was unusually cold and dry, and there was in-
adequate snow cover for fall-sown grains in East Germany and Czecho-
slovakia.~ This condition caused losses of grain through winter kill.
East Germany officially set losses as 17.5 percent for wheat,
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44.8 percent for barley, and 44 percent for oilseeds (rape.). Similar
damage from winter kill probably occurred in Czechoslovakia. In
Poland, where there was more. adequate snow cover for the crops, the
damage from winter kill was much less.
A cola. 1954 spring retarded the growth of winter grains and
delayed sprin?,field work by approximately 21 to 3 weeks throughout
the northern ?.rea. Poland was the only northern Satellite where
temperatures vere favorable for crop develo ent.. By June, grain.
crops were much further advanced in Poland t?, an in either East Germany
or Czechoslovakia. The only favorable aspect of the cold spring was
that it reduced the rate of evaporation of soil moisture
The 1?ate, cold spring required that a large amount of work
be done in a ahort period of time. This, it is believed, resulted
in underfulf i .lment of sowing and planting plans. . Under the "new
course," larger areas were to be planted to fodder crops, grain,
potatoes, bee1,s, and the like, but the lack of labor, machinery,
and. time prevented this. increase.
Heavy rains and wind during the firt 10 days of July and
rains during -she remainder of the month havo created unfavorable
harvesting conditions for small grains. Throughout the area, grain
was lodged (flattened), and lowland's were flooded. Mechanical
harvesting has been handicapped, and the la4k of farm labor -- par-
ticularly on --ollectives and State farms --;will delay harvesting.
Heavy harvesting losses can be expected under such condit:Lons. Be-
cause of the :high moisture content of threshed grain, additional
losses can be expected in storage if the grin is not pro=perly dried.
July rains have. set back the planti?g of late crops, weeding
and thinning of sugar beets, and cultivation; of row crops. The in-
creased soil moisture, however, should be beneficial to potatoes,
hay crops., vegetables, and sugar beets during the next 2 months.
According to a Czechoslovak source the excessive rainfall has
caused the spreading of plant diseases, particularly in the case of
cereal crops; losses were estimated at 10 to 30 percent of the 1954
harvest. Losses of this magnitude would men a sizable reduction in
the yields per hectare of grain crops in Czechoslovakia and probably
in other Satellites where similar weather conditions have prevailed.
Grain production in East Germany and Czechoslovakia in 1954
will probably not be any larger than in 1953, despite a slightly
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larger sown area. It is believed that as a result of higher harvesting
losses and increases in plant diseases in 1954, grain yields will be
less. Despite expected high harvesting losses, Poland will probably
have a slightly better grain crop than that of 1953, which was below
normal. Hay crop production in 1954 will be much better than in 1953;
the outlook for late potatoes, sugar beets, and forage crops is still
in question.
B. Southern Area (Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria, and Albania).
In the southern area of the European Satellites,, precipita-
tion in the fall of 1953 was considerably less than in the fall of
1952. Between August and December 1953., an average of less than
50 percent of normal precipitation was registered over most of the
agricultural area. Snow cover for winter grains did not occur until
late December 1953 and January 1954.
The dry weather delayed seeding of winter grains (wheat,
rye, and barley) and made plowing for spring crops difficult. As
a. result, sowing and. plowing plans for the southern area were not
fulfilled. In addition., the cold dry weather was not beneficial
for the germination and growth of winter grains.
A late winter and cold spring delayed spring field work and
retarded the development of fall-sown crops, Hungarian officials
claimed that winter barley had. experienced the worst damage for many
years. Winter wheat was also damaged and some areas had..to be re-
seeded. In the southern area, Hungary experienced the most damage
to fall-seeded crops, and Rumania followed.
A late, spring, combined with the underfulfillment of fall
plowing and sowing plans and winter-kill damage to reseeded grain
areas, created an above-normal amount of spring work to be done.
Bulgaria was the only country which claimed over-all fulfillment
of spring sowing plans. The emphasis on planting food crops resulted
in underfulfillment of plans for planting industrial crops. Because
of the late spring, corn was planted in place of spring barley, oats.,
and wheat in some areas of Hungary and Rumania.
The cold, dry spring* was followed by heavy rains and hail
during the first 10 days in July, which caused the grain to lodge
* April was the only month in which above-normal precipitation was
registered for all areas -- except Bulgaria. Temperatures were more
favorable in Bulgaria.
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and delayed harvesting of both grain and. hay1crops. In Hungary, a
small portion of the crop area was damaged by floods. Heavy losses
can be expected for bread grains and barley as a result of premature
harvesting that occurred in flooded areas; over-ripening of grains
in the field where harvesting has been delayed; and possible rotting
in shocks from the wet weather in Hungary and parts of Rumania during
July. Bulgaria and Albania did not experience heavy rains in July,
and although harvesting losses were reduced,lthere is a real need for
precipitation during August and September tolmake a satisfactory corn
crop'.
Although the wet weather has set bac. the cultivation of corn
and other row crops in Hungary and Rumania, thereby creating a weeding
problem, the increase in soil moisture was badly needed far all late
cropsa
In ger..eral, small grain yields for 1054 are estimated to be
below those of 1953 as a result of the unfavorable weather conditions
for growth, development, and harvesting Although it is too early
to give a fire: forecast, it is believed that given warm weather and
normal precipitation during August and September, yields better than
those of 1953. can be expected for corn, potatoes, sugar beets, fiber,
and late vegetable crops.
III Communist China.
. A preliminary review of the crop productaion situation in Communist
China as of lf; August 1954 indicates that over-all 1954 net food pro-
duction may be as much as 9 to 12 million tns -- 8 to 9 percent --
below that of 1953.* This drop in production is the result of wide-
spread flood c_amage in the basins of two of China? s major rivers, the
Yangtze and the Huai. The increased production expected from the areas
unaffected by floods has been more than offset by the inundation of
~1 million tons of food.
acreage that normally produces some 12 to 1I
This-tentative estimate is based on the following ana-Lysis.
In the first'four months of 1954, Communist China had favorable
weather.. As a result the 1953-54 winter crop harvests were about
8 percent greater than the 1952-53 winter cop harvest.**
See CIA; IM-399, Effect of the 1954 F gods on Agriculture. in
Coa?nunist China, 30 September, 1954. Confidential.
** Approximately 41 million tons in 1954 as compared with 38 million
tons in 1953. The winter crops are wheat, barley, oats, field peas,
broadbeans, and rapeseed. The winter crops constitute between 20 and
25 percent of Communist China's production epf food.
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Extensive snows fell throughout the Northwest," North, East, and
Northeast Administrative Regions. These relatively heavy snows over
the northern third of China seemed to assure sufficient ground mois-
ture for favorable germination of spring wheat and other summer crops.
The heavy snows, however, also had adverse effects. They brought
spring floods in certain areas of. Sinkiang., and in the Inner Mongolian
Autonomous Region they made necessary an air-drop to provide food
.supplies to herdsmen and feed supplies to hard-hit livestock areas.
Although there is no evidence of real disaster, it is possible that
death losses..in grazing areas were greater than normal.
Beginning in April 1954 and extending through May, the South China
coast had excessive rainfall. Total rainfall in Kwangturig, Kwangsi,
and Fukien for the month of April ranged from about 16 inches to 24
inches over large parts of the area. This rainfall is roughly 2 to
3 times the record for April in many previous years. Severe local
flooding apparently occurred in Kwangtung as early as the first half
of May
In May, this belt of rainfall passed over the lower Yangtze Basin
but did not cause flooding. In Tune, however, a. series of stationary
fronts* resulted: in excessive rainfall over the middle reaches of
the Yangtze River. The normal June rainfall at Wuhan for past years
has averaged 9.inches The rainfall in June of 1954 reached about
19 inches., and excessive precipitation continued well into July.
As of 18 August 1954, serious flooding and flood control problems
have been reported by the. Communists in 8 provinces Hupeh, Hunan,
Anhwei, Chekiang, Kiangsi, Honan, Kiangsu, and Shantung..
The extent of the flood disaster is difficult to determine d~**.
All three of the great river basin areas of Middle and North China,
deatherwise, these fronts were the line of demarcation between
two different air masses.. A relatively cold continental. air mass and
a relatively warm moist air mass were adjoining over the Yangtze Basin.
for much of the month of June.
The American Consulate General in Hong Kong thinks it is doubt-
ful (as of 13 August) whether the Chinese Communists are more than
roughly aware of. the extent of the damages.
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the Yangtze, the Huai, and the Yellow, have been affected. On 8 August
an official: statement in the Jen Min Jih Pap said, "unaffected by Yangtze
(and) Hwai ZH-,za 7 floods (are) areas (that) make up 94 percent of (the)
country's cultivated land." At the other e treme the Armed Forces
Far East in Tokyo has estimated that 17 percent of China's cultivated
land has been affected. The total cultivated acreage in China is ap-
proximately 95 million hectares. A range of estimates of hectares
flooded. is therefore established as between the 6 million admitted by
the Chinese Communist government and the i6million estimated by the
Armed Forces Far East. The Armed Forces Fas East have likewise esti-
mated the crap loss for the year at 27 million tons. Using the
1931-49 average production per hectare of 7'summer crops, a generalized
estimate of 1.5 tons of production per hectare is derived-for the 7
provinces most likely suffering from f-rood damage.* According to
the Chinese figures on cultivated acreage, this would imply a'.
crop loss of 9 million tons.
Careful evaluation of the available evidence suggests the following
preliminary estimate of hectares flooded: ?the_Yangtze Basin, 6 to 8
million hectares; the Huai. Basin, 2 million{ hectares; the Yellow River
Basin, none.
This est---.mate is based on the assumption that the Yangtze flood
is of approximately the magnitude and seves'ity of the 1931 Yangtze
flood, on reports that the Chinese Camnunidts have not been able to
control the ''angtze flood in the Tungting Lake-area and from that
point downrilrer to the seas,** on the belief that the Communists
have succeeded in protecting the area eastof the Grand Canal. in
Northern AnhiTei and Kiangsu, and on the b4ief that the area north
and east of 1 ' Pou-Yang in Northern Anhwei hao escaped flooding on the
scale of the 1931 floods. It is estimated ,', that the flooding in the
Huai Basin i; approximately 4+0 percent as severe as in 1951.
i
Rice, co;?n, millet, kaoliang, soybeans; peanuts, and sweet pota-
toes, on a g^ain equivalent basis, are thesummer crops used in this
average prod:iction per hectare. Eight proinces have been listed
previously as being mentioned in flood. reports. The province ex-
cluded in this crop production average is Shantung.
E Protection of certain urban areas may 1je an exceptio:a to this
generalized statement.
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On the basis of 1.5 tons of production per hectare the estimated
crop lass would be 12 to 15 million tons. This loss is approximately
10 percent of Communist China's average annual food crop production.
Although the winter crop results provide some offset,, (aboiut 3 mil-
lion tons.), and although the upper North China plain and Manchuria
appear on the way to a much better crop production year than was
1953, the floods in Central China represent a major disaster.
IV. Communist Vietnam.
The entire area of North Vietnam has had a dry winter, and the
majority of spring crops. appear to have been severely damaged.,
There. are prospects that the "fifth. month" rice may be as low as
50 percent of normal, which would be the worst crop since the
famine year of 192.5..
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APPENDIX
SOURCES
The analyses, estimates,, and conclusions contained in this memo-
randum are based on the following sources: monthly climatic sum-
maries (August 1952 - June 1953) from Air Weather Service, Andrews
Field,, telegrams and despatches from American Missions i.n Soviet
Bloc countries; FBIS, daily and weekly publications; and FDD trans-
lations of Soviet Bloc newspapers.
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