INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM THE RIVER SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY OF THE USSR

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Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM THE RIVER SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY OF THE USSR CIA/RR IM-406 7 February 1955 WARNING THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITTE 18, USC, SECS, 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports 5G Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 CONTENTS. Summary and Conclusions . Page 1 I. Introduction 2 II. Administrative Structure and Key Personnel 3 III. Technology 4 IV. Production 6 V. Imports . . 8 VI. Inputs . . : : . : : : : : : : 8 VII. Conclusions s . 9 Appendixes Appendix A. Methodology 11 Appendix B. Gaps in Intelligence 13 Appendix C. Sources . 15 Tables 1. Estimated Growth of the River Fleet in the USSR, 1945-55 . 7 2. Imports of River Vessels to the USSR, 1946-55 . 8 3. Material Inputs for the Production of River Vessels in the USSR, 1954-55 . ? Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 9 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 CIA/RR IM-406 fmma=aNiAlimis (ORR Project 35.504) THE RIVER SHIPBUILDING INDUSIEY OF THE USSR* Summary and Conclusions The river fleet of the USSR has increased from an estimated total of 1,600 self-propelled and 4,100 non-self-propelled vessels in 1945 to an estimated total of 6,200 self-propelled and 16,000 non-self- propelled vessels in 1955. The river fleet will haul about 140 mil- lion metric tonsxx of cargo during 1955, an increase of 65 percent over the 85 million tons hauled in 1950. The increase does not, however, meet the requirements of the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55), and although the tonnage of cargo hauled by the river fleet is increasing, it is doing so at an annually decreasing rate. Basic techniques used in the building of both self-propelled and non-self-propelled vessels in the USSR are not always modern, though adequate. Despite efforts to mechanize the industry, production is hampered by the need for hand work, shortages in materials and machin- ery, and badly drawn plans for interplant cooperation which compel in- dividual yards to manufacture goods that should normally be drawn from industrial channels. No major plant expansion is planned. Every indi- cation is that planners expect to obtain a maximum of production with- out the increase in plant area or the addition of manpower or machinery required for additional production. Within this framework, no great increase in production capacity is anticipated for the future. The rivers of the USSR carry about 10 percent of the total freight tonnage transported within the USSR. This figure does not indicate, however, the relative importance of river transportation in those areas of the country where rivers are the sole means of transportation for crops and manufactured goods. Despite the differences between the river fleets and their opera- tion in the US and the USSR, a comparison in terms of ton-kilometers*** * The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the best judgment of ORR as of 1 January 1955. ** Tonnages throughout this report are given in metric tons. *** A ton-kilometer is 1 physical metric ton of cargo hauled a distance of 1 kilometer. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 indicates that the Soviet river fleet hauled 641 percent, or 61.8 bil- lion ton-kilometers, of all Soviet freight in 1953 and that the US river fleet transported 18 percent, or 119.3 bllion ton-kilometers, of US freight in 1953. 1/* During the same year the Soviet river fleet consisted pf 18,900 self-propelled and nn-self-propelled vessels, whereas the US had an inventory of 18,570 towbOats, tugs, barges, scows, lighters, and car floats. This total OA not include fishing boats or the big ore, coal, and grain carrierson the Great Lakes. 2/ The production or river fleet vessels in the USSR during 1954 is esti- mated at 1,470 units, whereas 266 inland vessel..s were launched during the first 9 months of 1954 in the US, a rate o about 350 vessels for the year. ? The comparisons tentatively drawn from thee figures show that the river shipbuilding industry of the USSR constricted over four times the number of vessels as the US in 1954 to haul soiewhat comparable tonnages of cargo by water and to increase the size of the river fleet at a rate considerably greater than that of the US. The USSR requires a river fleet many times the size of the US fleet to haul comparable tonnages because the Soviet navigation season is far shOrter than the season in the US and because US efficiency is considerably greater than that displayed by the Soviet inland fleet. I. Introductior- The rivers of the USSR carry about 10 percent of the total freight transported within the USSR. The river freight is carried in ships of all sizes and types, the majority of which have been built in shipyards located within the USSR. In many areas of the country, particularly in the hinterland, the rivers are the sole means of transport for crops and manufacture. goods. Transportation plan rulfillment is tied so closely to river transport that any adverse cOndition, such as lack of water, lack of vessels, or inadequate schedules, results in nonfulfill- ment of the plan in a particular area. * Footnote references in arabic numerals are to sources listed in Appendix C. 2 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Within this context, shipbuilding for the rivers takes on the same degree of importance as does the building of locomotives and freight cars for the railroads. Accordingly, estimates of the size of the Soviet river fleet can best be obtained by analyzing the future of water transportation. The needs of this area of the Soviet economy will yield some idea of the scale of building needed to meet this future. It should be apparent at the outset that no fine line can be drawn beyond which transport needs are not reflected in shipbuilding. It is assumed that shipbuilding in the USSR is undertaken as needed to meet specified, planned water transportation goals. II. Administrative Structure and Key Personnel. In general, all Soviet shipyards and associated enterprises en- gaged in river shipbuilding activities of a commercial nature are under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of the River Fleet.* In 1954 the Ministry of the River Fleet was headed by Minister Z.A. Shashkov. Shashkov has, in the past, been the recipient of great trust on the part of the government. When reorganization took place in 1953, he was the Minister for the River Fleet. His appoint- ment as Minister for the Maritime and River Fleet as a result of the reorganization was believed to be an advancement. Another indication of the esteem in which he has been held was the award to him of the Order of Lenin. 2/ * Before 15 March 1953, two separate ministries were functioning in the field of water transportation. The Ministry of the Maritime Fleet concerned itself with all transportation outside the USSR. The Ministry of the River Fleet controlled all inland water transportation. Each ministry was headed by a minister, and administrative and opera- , tional functioning was similar. These two ministries were consolidated into a Ministry of the Maritime and River Fleet which, in addition to bringing together under one minister all water transportation func- tions, also assumed control over the previously autonomous Main Administration for the Northern Sea Route. This situation existed until 29 August 1954, when the one ministry was again divided into the previous two. The Main Administration for the Northern Sea Route was then transferred to the Ministry of the Maritime Fleet. -3 ....11?Iftioausrom" Approved For Release 1999/09/21: CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Before the 1954 reorganizaion it was apparent from reports con- tained in the Scviet press that Shashkov's ministry was not functioning according to plan, despite efforts to tighten Up control over laggard areas. For exanple, Shashkov ordered the consOlidation of the Estonian Steamship Compary, the Latvian Steamship CompaMy, and the Baltic Steam- ship Company into a larger Baltic Steamship CoMpany. In addition, he consolidated, under the Main Administration fotr Petroleum Transporta- tion, the major petroleum carriers: the Caspian Steamship Company, the Volga Tanker Steamship Line, and the Reydtanker Steamship Company. Finally, the Saviet Tanker Steamship Company, iwhich had operational control over all seagoing Soviet tankers, was abolished, and the tankers were placed directly under the control of the Steamship companies in whose areas the tankers normally operated_ As a result, this most recent reorgan'izatilm is. difficult to analyze. It may be assumed that reorganization is Ln liMe with current steps to decentralize adninistrative control over large, unwieldy types of or- ganizations such as the former Ministry of the Maritime and River Fleet. Since Shashkov is retaining the post of MThister for the River Fleet, however, little change in the basic organ. zatiOn. concerned with river shipbuilding is anticipated. at present. Taatl,Tal-aco The greatest technical advance made by Sovliet river shipbuilding yards in recent years involves the use of whatl the Russians term the "continuous flotrm method of ship asseMbly, As employed in the USSR, this method involves the use of an installation fitted with means for prefabrication of ship sections or the use of an installation which can receive prefabricated sections from an external source. In both cases the sections are assembled. into finishe Hulls on an assembly- line basis. This method of building ships ha not, however, been widely introduced. Lt/ Emphasis has been placed on increased production without, expanding present plant facilities. This trend originated in. 1949 and. was then considered to be of special significance Industry. At the same time, emphasis as placed. on the need for training of personnel, for better supply of equipment, and for increasinai allocations of machinery and materials. 4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Technological advances have been made in several fields, particu- larly in the design and construction of new types of vessels constructed by the use of the "continuous flow" method as need has arisen for such types. Two examples are the Moskvich-type passenger motorship.-- which is usually fitted with one or two 3Ii(n engines, giving the vessel a rating of either 150 or 300 horsepower (hp) -- and the 800-hp cargo vessel plying the Volga River and capable of hauling a load of 2,000 tons. It is the obvious intention of Soviet planners to advance the tech- nical processes utilized in the shipbuilding industry, within the limits of available materials. Although the USSR recognizes 6/ that one of the best ways to bring about a reduction in the time needed to build river vessels is to develop a well-organized intradepartmental system of yard cooperation, coupled with specialization by these enter- prises in the production of standardized parts and units, very little has been done in this connection and completion dates for new ships are usually not met. Interplant cooperation is very poorly developed among the river industrial enterprises. Shipboard components and parts are manufactured in accordance with individual orders or are manufactured in small lots. Production, costs for manufacturing done in this manner are from 1.5 to 3 times the cost of similar items mass-produced. Practically all yards make their own fasteners and clamps, bolts, nuts, screws, rivets, hinges, handles, and chains. The Riga Shipbuilding Ship Repair Yard has 40 percent of its total lathe park engaged in the manufacture of such items and fittings. Many fairly large enterprises have special machines, such as auto- matic knurlers and bolt- and. nut-making machines, which have been idle -for years because they have no equipment or special tools. It is re- ported that hundreds of lathes are idle for this reason. Enterprises of the Ministry of the River Fleet have been unable to Obtain standard cutting and fitting tools and must make for themSelves needed drills and reamers, tap and die wrenches, screwdrivers and chisels, standard milling cutters, and even three-jawed chucks. The result is a reduc- tion in gross production because a considerable number of workers in the main shops are diverted to the production of parts which are not included in gross and goods production returns. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 similimillalligall.1111111. Routine machine: processes in Western yard si -- for example, the bending of pipe by hydraulic means -- are just l beginning to find their way into use in Soviet river yards. Other manOacturing processes are quite crude. In the Ltmenda Yard. " shears[ have boon installed for the cutting of (welding) electrodes. When el4trodes were cut by hand from iron shootE they were not even and. were received in various lengths. Now the welders in the shops receive quality erLectrodes, prepared by mechanical means ... ." 2/ . .The river shipbuilding industry has attemFited to utilize the prod- ucts of other industries in an effort to save !scarce materials. The authorities do not hide the fact that materialia are scarce. Efforts continue to devise replacements as well as subistitutes. Wooden plastics, such aa lignofol and lignoston, are used. as baring materials, replacing babbitt and bronze in bearings used in the steirn tube and struts. 2/ Tinylplastics are used in finishing compartmerits, and rock wool is used as an insula:tinE material in refrigerated. holds of ships. Polychlor- vinyl plastic foam, Mark PKhV-9, is used as a ireplacement for Cork where heat, sound, and hydro-insulating mater.ilais are needed. 2/ IV. Production. Production estimates i:n this report are necessarily based on several assumptions. It has been assumed that production and. transportation needs are so: intimately connected. as to be vilitually indistinguishable. Furthermore, it has been assumed. that a specific unit of hp for self- propelled craft and a specific unit of cargo-darrying capacity for non-self-propelled craft will be required for each ton of cargo. On the basis of these assumptions, certain use factors for the Soviet inland fleet have been dertved, as follows: 00091 hp per ton of cargo and 0.0836 tons of cargo-carrying capacity pe .4 ton of cargo,* The Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) gives Some indication of the scope of the waer transportation program and i on the assumption cited, the Scope of mastruction. This plan stipulated. that the !annual in- crease in transport was to be about 15 to 16 tercent per year. How- ever, numerous statements in the Soviet press 112/ have indicated that annual plans have not been. met, and the most fecent report for the first 6 months yf 1954 reporT;s fulfillmert of about 82 percent in ton- kilometers and 37 percent in tons. 11/ The fPrmer Ministry of the Maritime and River Fleet has released. data in4icating that the compara- tive share of consumer goods cargo moved. by. 4ter transportation has declined below the 1940 level. 12/ * See Appendix A, Nbthodology. - 6 - moilasalli"."1"11 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIARDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 The Fifth Five Year Plan called for an increase in cargo haulage by river transportation of 75 to 80 percent for the period. Since total tonnage hauled. in 1950 was 85 million tons, the estimated in- crease should Yield a total tonnage for 1955 of between 148.75 and 153 million tons- However, based on statements ih the Soviet press, 12/ performance for 1953 is estimated to have been 119-1 million tons. Had the plan been met, performance would have been within the range of 123.25 to 125.8 million tons in 1953. Hence actual plan fulfillment appears to be running between 96.6 and 94.7 percent of plan. Should this pattern continue, by. .1955 annual tonnage hauled. would amount to about 140 million tons, a 65-percent increase over 1950, or about 93 percent of the planned. figure for the period. Thus it is evident,that while cargo haulage by river transportation is increasing, it is doing so at an annually decreasing rate. The inability to attain the planned goal was caused. by material shortages, the transfer of skilled manpower to the agricultural sector of the economy, the diver- sion of apparently extensive portions of production capacity to the manufacturing of goods and equipment for farms and machine tractor stations, and the apparent shift of emphasis away from. the actual con- struction of new river fleet vessels. The estimated. growth of the Soviet river fleet during 1945-55 is shown in Table 1. Table 1 Estimated Growth of the River Fleet in the USSR 1945-55 Year Self:Emall.2122ssels Non-Self-Propelled Vessels Horsepower Number (Thousand) ------ Number Cargo-Carrying Capacity (Million Metric Tons) 1945 1,600 328 4,100 , 3.01 1946 1,700 355 4,500 3.26 1947 2,100 428 5,400 3.93 1948 2,700 555 7,000 5.1 1949 3,300 673 8,500 6.2 1950 3,800 '.. 774 9,700 7.1 1951 4,200 874 11,000 8.03 1952 4,800 979 12,300 9.0 1953 5,300 1,080 13,600 10.0 1954 5,700 1,170 14,700 10.8 1955 6,200 1,270 16,000 12.0 - 7 - Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 411=1.11.111?11011 V. Imports. Records of the postwar years, together with planned prcduction to 1955 from both Satellite and non-Satellite countries, indicate that imports of river vessels to the USSR for use ion the rivers and lakes of the country are as shown in Table 2. Table 2 Imports of River Vessels to the USSR 1946-55 Self-Propelled Non-Self-Propelled Year Number Horsepower Number Cargo-Carrying Capacity (Metric Tons) 1946-5o 311 42,250 340 193,125 1951 28 8,500 63 74,000 1952 31 12,800 90 105,000 1953 29 15,600 92 107,200 1954 38 23,800 63 80,000 1955 4 1,600 2/ 43 6o,000 a. Partial estimate. Does not inc1ia7Tata on vessels in the Satellite and Western river shipbuiloing programs that are de- signed for export to the USSR. VI. Inputs. The basic material input groups for the river shipbuilding industry are steel and wood. Inputs for the production of river vessels in the USSR during 1954-55 are shown in Table 3.* The problem of unit input has been resolved on the basis of Soviet practice. Since Soviet publications invariably refer to the basic units "tons cargo-carrying capacity" and "horsepower" for non-self- propelled and self-propelled vessels, respectively, these units have been retained. It is therefore possible to compile total input values ? * Table 3 follows on p. 9. 8 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 for any given river shipbuilding program by using these factors and applying them to the corresponding program. Table 3 Material Inputs for the Production of River Vessels in the USSR ' 1954-55 min???1., Year Input Non-Self-Propelled Self-Propelled Total --- 1954 Steel (Thousand metric 35 33 68 tons) Lumber (Million board 144 18 162 feet) Copper (Metric tons) 4. 93 97 Petroleum (Metric tons) 245 65 310 1955 Steel (Thousand metric 39 49 88 tons) Lumber (Million board 167 25 192 feet) Copper (Metric tons) 4 137 141 Petroleum. (Metric tons) 280 100 380 VII. Conclusions. The river shipbuilding industry of the USSR has reached a stage of development which enables it to cope with the building tasks assigned to it. Shipbuilding yards producing river ships in the USSR, however, are not comparable with _Western yards, except in isolated cases, because neither techniques, machinery, nor manpower productivity are on a level with. Western yards no major expansion of plant facilities for the river shipbuilding industry in the USSR is planned for the future.. Expansion is possible, however, and may be undertaken should the need arise. It is assumed that within the framework of existing agreements, extended as they expire, the USSR will import river craft to augment its own native-built fleet. - 9 - Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 APPENDIX A METHODOLOGY _The use factors listed on page 6, above, have been derived from an examination of published Soviet material IL/ which yielded. use factors for the years 1934- and. 1935. In addition, a 1931 publica- tion 12./ established an estimate of the hp and. cargo-carrying capac- ity needed to meet a specific program. The three use factors thus derived were as follows 1931 1934 1935 Hp per metric ton 0.0053 0.011 0.0091 Cargo-carrying capacity per metric ton 0.044 0009 000836 The 1931 figures were based, on the transportation of 116 million tons of cargo, estimated by the Soviet planners. The best evidence is that this figure actually was 82 million tons of cargo, the highest prewar figure attained and not again reached until about 1950. Hence the efficiency indicated in a use factor based on 1931 was rejected. in. favor of the figures for 1934 and 1935, which were actually reported figures. Of the two years, 1935 indicated a greater efficiency. Therefore 1935, with its corresponding use factors, was selected. Inherent in this use factor are such intangibles as attrition caused by losses, age, and other variables, as well as changes in the ef- ficiency pattern. Thus, for any given year in which the tonnage hauled is known or estimated, the use factors yield a fleet size for that year which is estimated to be reasonably accurate for computation pur- poses. The yearly fleet totals shown in Table 126 were compiled by the use of these factors, applied against estimated cargo transportation figures. In turn, yearly differences, less imports, yielded production figures. * P. 7, above. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 The primary materials for the river shipbUilding industry are steel and wood. Althpugh it is recognized that certain engines are made of aluminum, the total number of engines using this material 13 unknown but is believed to be too small, over-all, tohave any appreciable effect on production of that metal. It is therefore not included in the listing. Material irputs for steel vessels, both self-propeiled and non- self-propelled, were weighted in accordance with the tonnage figures developed in TEble 3.* * P. 9, above. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 APPENDDCB GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE The principal gap in intelligence on the river shipbuilding industry of the USSR is in information directly pertaining to its achievements. The Soviet press and publications are the main source of information, but coverage is spotty at this time. Hence reliance must be placed on other indicators than actual construction information and plans. A. secondary gap exists in detailed information regarding construc- tion costs, manpower allocations, productivity, and inputs in other than that phase of building concerned with wooden ship construction. -13- Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 APPENDIX C SOURCES The principal sources of information for this report were (1) the Soviet press; (2) Soviet publications (books and periodicals); and (3) FBIS reports. These sources provided information which was evalu- ated as probably true. The file of detailed computations from which the tables on estimated river shipbuilding and material inputs were compiled is in CIA/ORR files. Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated "Eval.," have the following significance: Source of Information Doc. - Documentary A - Completely reliable B - Usually reliable C 7 Fairly reliable D - Not usually reliable E - Not reliable F - Cannot be judged ' Information 1 - Confirmed by other sources 2 - Probably true 3 - Possibly true 4 - Doubtful 5 - Probably false 6 - Cannot be judged "Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "t)ocumentary." Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report. NO "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document. 715 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 1. Traffic World, 30 Oct 1954, p. 76. U. Eval. RR 1. 2. Ibid., 16 Oct 1954, p. 75. U. 20,val RR 2. New York Times, 7 Nov 1954, p. F. U. Eval. RR 2. 3. Vodnyiy transport, 6 Mar 1954, p. 1. U. Eval. RR 2. 4. Rechnoy transport, Sep-Oct 1949, PP. 1-4. U. Evaa. RR 2. 5. Ibid. 6. Vodnyiy transport, 20 Apr 1954, p. 2. U. Eval. RR 2. 7. Rechnoy transport, 23 Jan 1954, p. 4. U. Eval. RR 2. 8. Rechnoy transport, Jan-Feb 1950, pp. 15-18, U. Eval. RR 2. Vodnyiy transport, 25 Jul 1953, p. 2. U. Eval. RR 2. 9. VodAyiy transport, 25 Jul 1953, p. 2. U. Eval. RR 2. 10. Vod i transport, 1 Mar 1954, and other issues during 1953-54. 2 1. RR 2. U. 12.. losnyiy transport, 20 Aug 1953, p. 1. U. Eval. RR 2. 7r--- 13. Summary of Fulfillment of the State Ilan for theLEP.velop- ment of the National Economy of the USSR, 1953," translated from PTavda, 31 Jan 1954, p. 2. U. lEval. RR 2. 14. Socialnt Construction in the USSR, SOyuzorgouchet, Moscow, 1936, AD. 314-318. U. Eval. RR 2. 15. Sudokhod_stvo i sudostroyeniye, No. 1 1931, p. 2. U. Eval. RR 2. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7 Q111T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000300130001-7