CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC 1955

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00935A000300230001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 27, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 10, 1955
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
1955
CIA/RR IM-416
10 November 1955
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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`f,//Z7)
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FOREWORD
This memorandum on the condition of growing crops in the Sino-
Soviet Bloc is based on an analysis of weather data and other factors
affecting crop yields in the Bloc. As a qualitative statement, it
reflects in a general way the prospects for the food supply of the
Bloc for the consumption year 1 July 1955 through 30 June 1956.
Quantitative estimates of production, based on acreage as well as
yield, will be made in a later report. The general conclusions
presented in this memorandum are indicative of the field-crop
potential of the USSR, Communist China, and North Vietnam as of mid-
August 1955 and of the European Satellites as of mid-September 1955?
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S -E-C -R-E-T
CONTENTS
Page
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
II. European Satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
A. Albania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
B. Bulgaria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
C. Czechoslovakia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
D. East Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
E. Hungary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
F. Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
G. Rumania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
III. Communist China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
IV. North Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Appendix
Source References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
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CIA/RR IM-1+16 S-E-C-R-E-T
(CPR Project 21.856)
CROP CONDITIONS IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC*
1955
Summary
Crop prospects in the Sino-Soviet Bloc indicate that agricultural
production in the Bloc in 1955 will rise substantially above the
mediocre levels of 1954. It appears likely that total agricultural
production in the USSR will be greater than it has been in any postwar
year and that over-all production in the European Satellites and Com-
munist China will be measurably higher than the below-normal. produc-
tion of 1954. Only in North Vietnam will harvests in 1955 fall below
those of 1954.
Favorable weather in much of the agricultural area of the European
USSR, the new acreages of grain crops in West Siberia and Kazakhstan,
and a probable increase in production from expanded corn acreages will
raise total production of crops in the USSR above that of 1952, the
best previous postwar harvest year. In terms of.annual averages, the
production of crops in the European Satellites will be only fair, but
it will be definitely better than the below-normal production of 1954.
In Communist China, favorable weather during most of 1955 and a modest
increase in rice acreage will result in a total crop production greater
than that of 1954, a year during which severe floods caused a serious
drop in agricultural production. In North Vietnam there have been
droughts in the north and floods in the lowlands, and the fourth con-
secutive annual crop failure seems imminent.
In the Sino-Soviet Bloc as a whole, the per capita availability
of food during the consumption year 1 July 1955 through 30 June 1956
will be greater than in the 1954-55 consumption year. The improvement
is largely the result of more favorable weather, however, and there is
no indication that the agricultural economy of the Sino-Soviet Bloc
has found a satisfactory solution to the perennial problem of a
fluctuating food supply.
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum repre-
sent the best judgment of ORR as of 1 October 1955?
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On the 'oasis of weather and crop information available as of mid-
August 1955, it is expected that total crop production in the USSR
in 1955 will be greater than in 1954. The anticipated increase is
the result of favorable weather in much o the important crop area
of the European USSR and of expanded acreage, primarily in the "new
lands" area of West Siberia and Kazak-hsta.
Total production of grain in 1955 pro ably will exceed the post-
war high reached in 1952. The outlook f o a good grain harvest is
based on several factors.
First, good harvests were reported th
grain areas of the Ukraine and the North
the Soviet press indicate that yields thi
ably with the excellent 1952 harvest.
s year in the important
aucasus. References in
year will compare favor-
Second, the acreage of wheat in 3.955 has been increased by al-
most 25 percent over the 1954 acreage. T is expansion occurred in
the "new lands" area of West Siberia and azakhstan. Despite the
:Low wheat yields caused by the drought injthis area in 1955, over-
all production probably will exceed the bi per harvest on a smaller
acreage in 1954.
Finally, the acreage of corn has been increased fourfold over
that of 1954. Some of this increase, how~ver, has been at the
expense of other feed grains, such as ba4ey and oats. Much of
-the corn will be harvested in an immature stage and will be processed
as silage.*
The sugar-beet crop, largely concentrated in the Ukraine and
neighboring parts of the central black soil belt, is expected to
be much better than it was in 1954, when hummer drought sharply
reduced the yield of sugar beets. In add'tion, there has been an
increase it acreage of more than 10 percent.
e It appears certain that immature corn is to be included in the
Soviet total grain figure, but the rate o conversion from immature
corn to dry grain that the Russians will employ in this accounting is
unknown. Such conversion is necessary to prevent an astronomical
inflation cf the total grain production figure. In the US, immature
ears of corn processed as silage are accornted for as grain, after
making an allowance for water content.
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The outlook for the production of potatoes in 1955 is also favor-
able. Because of generally good weather throughout the European USSR,
and a 4-percent increase in acreage, the potato crop in 1955 is likely
to be better than that of 1954. It should be noted, however, that
weather conditions during the fall harvesting season have a decisive
effect on the production of both potatoes and sugar beets.
Assuming normal harvesting conditions, little change is expected
in the production of cotton in 1955 compared with that of 1954, which
was a fairly good year. Much of the cotton crop in Central Asia was
adversely affected by cold weather in the spring of 1955, and in some
areas considerable replanting was necessary. Reports from various
regions have indicated danger from insect pests, and as late as early
August a provincial newspaper reported continuing insect-pest damage
in Uzbek SSR. On the other hand, members of the US agricultural dele-
gation who inspected several cotton fields near Tashkent in Uzbek SSR,
a republic which accounts for about two-thirds of the total Soviet
cotton output, reported that the cotton in the fields observed was in
very good condition.
On the basis of preliminary estimates of crop conditions, pros-
pects appear favorable for a rise in per capita availability of food
for the consumption year 1 July 1955 through 30 June 1956. There
may also be some improvement in the quality of the diet. The 1955
mid-year report of plan fulfillment announced that during the 9-month
period from 1 October 1954 to 1 July 1955 milk yields on collective
farms were 28 percent higher than they were for the same period in
1953-54. Although the final increase in total annual production of
milk, based on yields per cow, probably will be less than that indi-
cated by this announced figure, some increase in per capita consump-
tion of milk certainly is to be expected -- provided that the supply
of fodder during the coming consumption year is adequate to maintain
or increase the current indicated level of the production of milk.
Increases in the production of meat have also been reported. The
success or failure in increasing the production of milk and meat is
strongly dependent on the outcome of the corn program. Members of the
US agricultural delegation reported that as a result of favorable
weather much of the corn crop in the northern Ukraine and the North
Caucasus looked good in late July. In other regions, such as the
south central Ukraine, parts of the traditionally marginal Volga
Valley, and the "new lands" area of West Siberia and Kazakhstan, the
corn was reported to be poor. In practically all areas visited by
the US delegation the soil was dry, and additional rain was necessary
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to mature late crops such as corn. The substitution of corn acreage
for that of other feed grains such as barleyland oats makes it im-
perative that good returns be obtained from porn. Because of lack
of machinery, much of the harvesting must be done by hand, and a
critical stage occurs during the harvesting -period. Corn must be
ensiled at the proper time to insure against spoilage and loss of
nutrients. Another critical factor is that bf early frosts, which
would reduce .materially the feeding value of
immature corn.
From a regional point of view,
over-all
rop prospects appear
to be best in the Ukraine and the
North Cauc
sus (Regions III and
IV*). In the early fall of 1954,
rainfall w
3.s light in some parts
of the southern Ukraine and the north Caucas
s -- a continuation of
the summer drcught which sharply reduced 195
yields in this area.
Winter precipitation, however, was above no 1, and spring and
early summer rainfall was adequate to mature the small-grain crop.
The US agricultural delegation reported good grain harvest prospects
in the areas visted. In the harvesting process, however, there were
difficulties caused by lodgings of the grain, and undoubtedly there
were some harvesting losses. In the areas visited in the Ukraine
and the North Caucasus, cornfields were reported to be in generally
good condition.., but late summer rains were needed to mature the crop
properly.
Another ir.dication of good harvests in t
Caucasus is the fact that, on 28 July, :Krasr
Cant wheat area of the North Caucasus, repor
grain delivery quota exactly 3 months earlie
the Ukrainian SSR reported fulfillment 3 mon
on 18 August 1.955 compared with 12 November
In the Trz.nscaucasus (Region V), America
trip in late June reported that crop prospec
average in Azerbaydzhan SSR and average in t
ing of small ?;rains was under way at the tim
he Ukraine and. the North
odarskiy Kray,, an impor-
ted fulfillment of its
r than in 1951. Similarly,
the earlier than last year 1954.
,n Embassy observers on a
is were average to below
he Georgian SSR. Harvest-
e of the observations.
s to the economic regions
defined and n mbered on CIA Map 12048.1, 9-~l (First Revision, 7-52),
USSR: Economic Regions.
.X* The term lodging describes the cond:itio
break or bend and form a tangled mass w:liich
resulting when stalks
is difficult to cut.
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4
The Baltic republics and Belorussia (Region II) were plagued with
excessive precipitation and below-normal temperatures in the spring
of 1955. As a result, there were serious delays in the planting and
sowing of spring crops. At a July reception for the US agricultural
delegation, Lobanov, Deputy Chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers,
stated that the Baltic States and Belorussia were having "crop prob-
lems due to bad weather." There are more recent indications of some-
what improved conditions, as a result of which crop prospects in these
republics appear to be slightly better than they were last year, when
some of this area was adversely affected by drought.
In the Central region (Region VII), crop prospects are believed
to be somewhat above average but no better than they were last year.
Fall and winter precipitation in most of this region was normal or
above normal. In some areas of the central black soil belt (Kursk
and Orel'), American Embassy observers reported severe winter kill
of grains sown in the fall of 1954 for harvest in 1955. Many of
these fields were being partly or entirely re-sown to spring grains.
Precipitation during the spring and summer months appears to have
been adequate for good crop growth. Members of the US agricultural
delegation reported that in July crops along the route from Moscow
to Khartkov were in good condition.
In the lower and middle Volga Valley (Region VI), crops are
expected to be better than they were in 1954, when drought condi-
tions in some areas were officially reported. Fall and winter
precipitation throughout most of the Volga region was normal or
above normal. Early spring rainfall was somewhat below normal,
but fairly good rainfall in May, together with accumulated soil
moisture reserves, was adequate for at least an average crop for
the region as a whole. Members of the US agricultural delegation
reported that prospects for small grains in the Stalingrad (lower
Volga) region were better than they were in 1954 but about average
for the area over a period of years. In the Kuybyshev (middle
Volga) region an official of the Ministry of Agriculture told the
US agricultural delegation that the crops in the Kuybyshev area were
slightly better than they were in 1954 but a little below the long-
term average.
In the Urals region (Region VIII), crop yields will be much lower
than those attained in 1954 and are also likely to be below the long-
run average for that area. Fall and winter precipitation in the more
important grain areas of the Urals region was slightly below normal.
Spring and early summer rainfall reported by many weather stations was
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only one-half to three-fourths of normal, a d crop yields were ad-
versely affected. American Embassy observe s traveling through the
southern part of the Urals region in June r ported "dry, hot, dusty
weather conditions" and crops being serious y affected.
In West Siberia (Region IX) and the northern part of Kazakhstan
(Region X) -- the areas in which the "new lands" expansion is taking
place -- drought conditions have sharply re uced yields of small
grains. Fall and winter precipitation was generally favorable in the
"new lands" area of West Siberia and Kazakhstan., but spring precipi-
tation was below normal. May and June precipitation was particularly
deficient. Western observers traveled through portions of the "new
lands" area in late June and reported very dry and dusty conditions.
In August, Soviet agricultural officials tcld the US agricultural
delegation that yields in the "new lands" areas visited were averaging
only one-third to one-half of those attained in 1954. At the July
reception for the US agricultural delegation, Lobanov stated that
"things are not going well. concerning crop prospects in the 'new
lands' area, but the total. harvest there will be larger because of
the increased acreage sown."
II. European Satellites.
Informat:Lon available as of 15 Septemb r 1955 indicates that in
the European Satellites taken as a whole the production of field crops
in 1955 should be greater than that of 1951- From 15 June to 15 July,
just before the harvest of small, grains,* he weather was favorable,
and prospects for production were much . bet er than earlier estimates
indicated. i/** Although frequent rain an thunderstorms over most of
Eastern Europe during the latter half of July and the first part of
August complicated and delayed harvesting perations and increased the
risk of high harvesting losses, the late rains improved the prospects
for potatoes, sugar beets, oilseed, corn, and hay crops.
The production of grain in East German and Czechoslovakia will
be only slightly higher than the below-no al 1954 level, but in Poland
there may be a more substantial increase. The production of root
crops (sugar beets and potatoes) in the northern European Satellites
should equal or exceed 1954 levels, and an increase in hay crops should
provide an improved livestock fodder base.
Wheat, rye, barley, and oats.
* For serially numbered source reference , see the Appendix.
-6.-
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The estimated increase in the production of grain is not expected
to be large enough to meet the indigenous requirements of the northern
European Satellites, and in 1956 they probably will continue to be net
importers of grain. In general, food supplies for 1955-56 will not
fulfill urban requirements -- particularly for meat, animal fats, and
vegetable oils.
The present over-all prospects of agricultural production in the
southern European Satellites (Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Rumania)
in 1955 suggest that harvests will be slightly better than the below-
normal harvests of 1954.
In Rumania a substantial increase in the production of grain is
expected as a result of acreage expansion and better yields than those
of 1954. In Hungary, Bulgaria, and Albania there probably will be very
little change in the level of production. Root crops, however, are
progressing favorably in all countries except Albania, and the produc-
tion of corn, sugar beets, and potatoes will exceed 195- levels. In
Albania, below-normal precipitation has prevailed since the spring,
and prospects for root crops and pastures are relatively poor.
An improvement in the food supply for 1955-56 may occur in Rumania
and Bulgaria, but the present outlook for crop production in Hungary
and Albania indicates that little or no improvement can be expected.
On the whole, the statistical outlook for the European Satellites
indicates a food supply situation slightly better than that of 195--55.
The European Satellites, however, will still be dependent on imports
of meat, fats, and oils to maintain or increase per capita consumption
of these commodities over 1954-55 levels. Except for Bulgaria and
Rumania, moreover, the European Satellites will continue to be net
importers of grain during the 1955-56 consumption year.
A. Albania.
The harvest of small grains in Albania in 1955 probably will
be no larger than last year's better-than-average crop, despite a
slight increase in the total sown acreage. Weather conditions are
the primary cause of less favorable yields per hectare. The produc-
tion of corn and root crops in 1955 is expected to be no better than
average.
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Although fall conditions in Albania were favorable to a good
start for grain crops, a drier-than-normal spring and summer probably
have retarded plant growth and undoubtedly will reduce yields. 2/
This will be especially significant for the spring-sown crops.
The below-normal precipitation in t spring and summer also
will have an adverse effect on the yields of the corn., potato., and
sugar beet crcps. The expected decline in t e production of corn,
the second largest grain crop in Albania, is! predicated on a decrease
in the sown area and the effects of weather n yields. J Although a
large part of the sugar-beet area reportedly is under irrigation, a
less-than-normal supply of water undoubtedly will reduce yields.
The gross agricultural output for Al Dania in 1955 has been
planned offic_.ally to rise approximately 20 to 30 percent over that
of 1954. 'udging from present crop prospects, however, a relatively
static level in the development of the agriclultural sector is expected.
Imports of agricultural products by
expected to continue at approximately tie &
ing the trade year 1 July 1954 through 30 J
all food situation does not appear to be an,
was during 1954-55.
Albania, therefore, are
me level as imports dur-
ne 1955, and the over-
more favorable than it
B. Bulgaria.
The harvest of small grains in 'Bulgaria in 1955 is expected
to be no better than the production in 1954, which was about average,
despite the favorable weather in the fall o 1954 and the early plant-
ing of spring crops in 1955. Adverse weather conditions after spring
planting have reduced the possibility of an excellent harvest.
A coo:L, wet spring, followed by below-normal rainfall during
April and May, retarded plant growth. 5/ I certain areas there
were untimely rains at harvest time, and harvesting losses through
spoilage and shattering of grain (because of overripe heads) probably
will be heavier than normal.
The Poduction of row crops -- corn sugar beets, and pota-
toes -- in 1955 should equal the production in 1954 and may be better.
There are indications, however, that insect damage to sugar beets has
been unusually heavy and may reduce yields. II
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Although the gross agricultural production for Bulgaria in
1955 has been planned to increase 21.7 percent over that of 1954, 8/
present indications are that only an average crop year may be expected.
A slight increase in the total agricultural production, however, is
predicated on the basis of a probable rise in total production of
livestock and dairy products.
The export of agricultural products by Bulgaria during 1955-
56 probably will show an increase over that of 1954-55. Early in-
formation suggests that Bulgaria will compete with the West for agri-
cultural. markets -- feelers have been sent to Austria stating that
early deliveries are possible.
The outlook for agriculture in Czechoslovakia in 1955 indi=
cates that over-all production, particularly of grain, may not be
any better than the below-average production of 1954. Nature has
once again defeated government efforts to raise the levels of pro-
duction.
The failure of the agriculture campaign in the fall of 1954
to fulfill sowing and plowing plans was admitted officially by Prime
Minister Siroky. An early spring in 1955 would have enabled farmers
to increase the acreage of spring grains, but a late spring delayed
field operations by nearly 30 days. The cold, wet weather retarded
the growth of crops seeded in the fall of 1954 for harvest in 1955
and prevented the early growth of crops seeded in the spring of 1955.
The entire spring was characterized by growing conditions un-
favorable for crops -- below-normal temperatures and above-normal
precipitation. Between 10 June and 10 July the weather was favor-
able for grain development, but about 15 July, the time that small
grains were ready for harvest in southern Slovakia, there were rain
and hail storms which caused the grain to become lodged, and fre-
quent rains occurred over most of Czechoslovakia during the next month.
American Embassy observers reported that in Bohemia as much as 50 per-
cent of the grain was lodged. 9/
The heavy rainfall prevented the use of heavy machinery in the
fields and delayed grain harvesting past the ripening stage. Shatter-
ing of grains probably occurred on a large scale, and the harvesting
of the wet grain will increase losses through spoilage. The adverse
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effect of the weather on the grain harvest ii
statement made by the Minister of Agricultur(
August: "The ;people's joy at the good harve;
the changeable and inclement weather at harv(
of a bountiful harvest made in July by Commui
modified by a statement made by the Central
that "production of grain will be higher that
though there mry be a slight increase, depenn
harvesting losses, the planned 20-percent in
will not be achieved.
With present soil moisture reserves
ditions through early October., the produ.ctio
potatoes, hay, and pasture should exceed. the
harvesting of grain will make serious demand
labor and machinery normally required for ha:
and for preparing the fall planting before w
In 1955-56, Czechoslovakia will once
imports for a significant share of the food
population. As a result of good spring and
be an increase in the slaughtered weight, of
tion of meat i;a 1956 may be influenced favor
well illustrated by the
Marek Smida, on 9
t is being poisoned by
st time." 10/ Claims
ist officials have been
ommittee to the effect
last year." .L / Al-
ing on the extent of
rease in grain yields
nd normal weather con-
of sugar beets,
levels of 1954. The
on the agricultural
vesting root crops
nter sets in.
again be dependent on
equirements of the urban
all pastures, there may
nimals, and the produc-
bly.
D. East Germany.
In East Germany the production of field crops in 1955, with
the possible exception of sugar beets, may b slightly larger than the
~'
poor. harvests of 1954. The mild winter and
gave a good start to grain seeded in the fal
1955. In contrast to the high losses from w
winter kill in 1954-55 was at a minimum. A
tarded plant growth and prevented fulfiilmen
In addition, shortages of spring seed grain
the size of the sown area.
of 1954 for :harvest in
nter kill in .1953-54,
ate spring, however, re-
of spring planting plans.
nd seed potatoes restricted
Cool, rainy weather during May and June retarded both the
growth of most spring-sown crops and the mat ing of fall-sown grains.
Sunny weather and below-normal precipitation in July, however, was
beneficial to rll crops, particularly to the maturing of grains. The
outlook for yields brightened to the extent that in early August it
was estimated that the yield of bread grains would exceed the levels
of 1954. 1
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There have been difficulties in the harvesting of grain in
East Germany. Frequent rains during August, the lifting of early
and medium potatoes coincident with grain harvesting, 12/ and a
consequent labor shortage have all complicated the harvesting and
threshing of grain. The result has been increased losses and re-
duced milling quality of bread grains, but at this time there is not
enough available information to permit determination of the extent
of these losses. On the other hand, the rains should have benefited
late potatoes, sugar beets, and pastures.
Although the potato crop in East Germany will be better
than it was in 1954, the production of sugar beets may not be so
large as in 1954 -- the beet crop has been attacked by an infesta-
tion of beet flies. 13/
Fall work is being delayed by the later-than-normal har-
vesting of late potatoes, sugar beets, and hay. As a result, the
plowing and seeding of grains (wheat, rye, and barley) in the fall
of 1955 for harvest in 1956 will have to be done in about one-half
of the time normally available.
E. Hungary.
The crop of small grains in Hungary in 1955 is expected to
be only moderately higher than last year's very poor crop. Lower-
than-normal grain yields are expected because of a late spring
followed by a prolonged dry spell extending into June. These con-
ditions retarded the proper development of grain, particularly that
seeded in the spring of 1955. In addition, the unseasonably
cold and wet weather at harvest time and the lack of adequate storage
and drying facilities undoubtedly caused larger-than-normal harvest-
ing losses.
The late-maturing row crops, including sugar beets, potatoes,
and corn, have benefited, however, from the added soil moisture dur-
ing July and August. 15 The development of these crops appears to
be favorable, and indications point to a reasonably successful har-
vest.
In terms of gross agricultural output in Hungary, however,
the prospects for the present harvest indicate that the planned 7.3-
percent increase over 1954 will not be achieved. 16/ The major
shortcoming is likely to be the below-average crop of small grains,
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S -E -C -R-E -T
which -- in terns of value -- still represent the bulk of gross agri-
cultural. output.
On the basis of present estimates, Hungary again may be a net
importer of grains during the 1955-56 trade year. With heavy imbalances
and overextended credit existing because of last year's drought, the
below-normal grain harvest for the present ye r will make it increasingly
difficult for Hungary to repay its creditors and to maintain adequate
supplies for internal needs.
A preliminary estimate of the food situation in Hungary for
the consumption year 1 July 1955 through 30 June 1956, therefore,
indicates that there will be no improvement o er that of the pre-
vious year. Total consumption of grain and grain products may, how-
ever, decline somewhat, especially if imports are necessary in order
to fill the gap caused by inadequate indigeno s production.
F. Poland.
The production of grains and sugar bey
probably will exceed the levels of 1954, but
and fruit will be less. Weather during July
to the maturing and harvesting of grain, and
crop is now more promising than were earlier
dente indicates that the production of grain
rye, will be above the levels of 1954 ant. may
The hot, dry weather, excellent for grain har
verse effect, however, on the development of]
Following a late, cold, rainy spring,
area of grain and root crops, 19/ the weather
This weather permitted small grains to mature
with minimum lcss. The dry weather* and abov
is in Poland in 1955
he production of potatoes
,nd August was favorable
,he outlook for the grain
'orecasts. 17/ The evi-
.n 1955, particularly of
be the best since 1949.
resting, is having an ad-
otatoes and sugar beets. 18/
turned warm and sunny.
and to be harvested
~-normal temperatures
potatoes require moisture.
came at a time, however, when sugar beets and
The root crops had been planted late and had not developed the extensive
root system which would have protected them daring the drought condi-
tions prevailing in August.
It is probable that total production Of the four major grains'
in. Poland will not achieve the planned goal 2+/ of a 10.9-percent
:Precipitation in the main agricultural ar as for July and August was
estimated at 57 and 32 percent, respectively, of normal. 20/
** Wheat, rye, barley, and oats.
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increase over 1955 production -- primarily because the expansion in
sown acreage was not realized -- but it may achieve the planned yield-
per-hectare increase for bread grains of about 7 percent.
The production of root crops and fruit in 1955 will be below
the levels of 1954. The reduced production of root crops will have
an adverse effect on the supply of fodder available for supporting
the livestock base. Rains by 15 September may have improved pros-
pects for sugar beets but were too late to affect potato yields
materially.
G. Rumania.
The present outlook for the 1955 harvest of bread grains in
Rumania indicates, that production will considerably exceed last year's
below-normal harvest. The production of corn and root crops will
approximate or will slightly exceed levels of 1954. Favorable fac-
tors have been the 12-percent increase in the sown area of crops
seeded in the fall of 1954 for harvest in 1955 (primarily wheat and
rye) and the reported rapid development during the favorable weather
in July and August of the spring-sown crops which had been seeded
under adverse weather conditions. 22/
Harvesting losses of both spring- and fall-sown grains (wheat.,
rye, barley, and oats), however, may offset somewhat the reported
favorable condition of crops standing in the field. Heavy and pro-
longed rains fell during the peak period of harvests, delaying opera-
tions and causing some damage to crops in the field. 23/ Heavier-
than-normal losses are anticipated as a result of probable overripening
and of inadequate preparations for the drying and storage of harvested
grains.
The production of the chief row crops, sugar beets, corn, and
potatoes, is also expected to be higher this year than in 1914. In-
creases in acreage and adequate reserves of soil moisture are largely
responsible for the favorable outlook. 24/ Because of the reported
higher inputs of fertilizers and the abundant rainfall, a significant
rise in the production of sugar beets is more than likely. 25/ The
production of corn should also increase, barring any radical change
from the normal weather pattern expected through harvesting.
Although preliminary crop estimates for Rumania in 1955 favor
an increase over 1954 harvests, it is probable that a rise of not more
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than 4 to 8 :.)ercent, in terms of the produ
petted, compared with the estimated Rumani
11 percent i::i the production of grain in 1
The expected increase in the produ
prove Rumania's over-all. trade position in
Rumania was a net importer of food grains,
outlook for :?roduction in 1955 should enab
a net exporter of food grains.
The ever-all availability of food
RLimania duri:ig 1955-56 -- especially for t
sugar and grain. Indications also point t
prices.
Weather and crop information available
cates that tale over-all net production of
China will be higher than that of 1954. F
during the latter part of the summer have
creasing 195:5 production of food crops wel
and there is a good possibility that the C
attain their 1955 production target of an
the 1954 har-rests.
The winter crops harvested last June i
ported as only fair to good -- primarily bi
and drought conditions of last winter and
the country. The outlook for a considerab,
of summer craps, which comprise more than
China's annual production of food crops, a:
the anticipa-led increases in the output of
more than offset the losses resulting from
The net food crop loss in 1954 was estimat
cent below 1953 production, and a 6-percen
bring produc-';ion back to about the 1953 le-
The fall and winter of 1954 in Communi
by severe weather as far south as the Yang
:,.ems resulting from undrained lands as an
floods, and drought conditions in virtuall
except the Yangtze Valley and Manchuria.
tion of grain., can be ex-
n planned increase of about
55 over that of 1954.
tion of grain should im-
1955-56. In 1954-55,
26 but the more favorable
.e Rumania to become again
hould also improve in
e high-calorie foods,
a possible drop in food
as of 25 August 1955 indi-
ood crops in Communist
vorable weather conditions
mproved prospects for in-
above the levels of 1954,
inese Communists will
ncrease of 6.4 percent above
Communist China were re-
cause of the cold weather
pring in various parts of
e increase in the production
0 percent of Communist
pears very good. Most of
food, if achieved, will not
the severe floods of 1954.
d to be from 5 to 7 per-
increase in :1955 will
el.
t China were characterized
ze Valley, planting prob-
ftereffect of the 1954
all areas of the country
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In the spring and summer of 1955 there was a severe drought in
South China and heavy precipitation along the lower reaches of the
Yangtze Valley, The spring drought in South China, particularly in
the province of Kwangtung, was reported as the worst in 90 years.
Because of lack of rainfall the planting of early rice crops;, which
normally begins in February, was delayed in some areas as late as
April and May. Heavy rainfall in May alleviated the condition some-
what, but not enough to avoid considerable losses and low yields.
It was reported that despite the very dry spring, good winter
wheat crops were harvested in Central China and North China. Yields
were above average in Anhwei, Shensi, Honan, and Hopeh Provinces.
Hupeh Province, which bore the brunt of the 1954 flood, showed no
increase in production.
Although the summer rainfall along the lower Yangtze Valley in
1955 was less than in 1954, it posed a serious flood threat ,in July.
With the exception of some minor flooding, however, there was little
damage to summer crops. The rainfall was beneficial in that it pro-
vided sufficient water for irrigating the expanded acreage of inter-
mediate and late rice crops and other summer crops. Reports indi-
cate that these crops were very good.
In Manchuria, crop prospects appear to be about average, but pro-
duction will probably be below the exceptionally good production of
1954.
In general, the agricultural situation in Communist Chin3, during
1955 has been characterized by an increased emphasis on the expansion
of the area of cultivated land; increasingly bitter competition for
land among grains, cotton, and edible oilseeds; a slower pace in the
organization of Agricultural Producers' Cooperatives until after the
fall harvests; stepped-up efforts to increase the production of those
items, such as meat and oilseeds, needed by the Sino-Soviet :Bloc; and
an increase in the production of all crops.
It is already evident that in 1955 the state will set quotas for
the procurement of grain from each farm, a departure from the general
1954 practice of collecting grain that was considered surplus to the
needs of the farmers. The long-term outlook for farm production in-
centives, however, is not bright.
- 15 -
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According to the Peiping regime, the state procured 44.6 million
metric tons of husked grain and soybeans i the food year 1 July 1954
through 30 Jane 1955. Of this amount, 18 million metric tons were
returned to the rural markets, and 22.5 million metric tons were re-
leased to uroan markets. In the coming crjp year, Communist China
plans to maintain food procurement at abou the 1954-55 :Level while
reducing allocations to rural markets. In{this way the Communist
regime hopes to increase the grain supply o the urban markets and
thus to offset somewhat the opposition to he new rationing program.
Agricultural failures in the past have prevented the Chinese
Communists from creating large food reserves. Because of a poor
harvest in 1954 and the consequent widespr ad food shortages, the
government has had difficulty in acquiring enough food for its more
important needs.
In view of the limited amount of capital investment that the
Chinese Communists are willing to allocate to agriculture., the long-
range prospects for agricultural productior are not good. If this
policy is continued, there probably will b little or no increase in
per capita consumption of food over the ne(t 10 years.
Weather and crop information available ias of 5 September 1955
indicates that North Vietnam again is :facing a major setback in its
food supply.
In those areas of Indochina controlled y the Viet Minh, there were
severe drought conditions during the crop ear, and grain seeded in
the fall of 1.954 for harvest in early :L955 (May and June) was ad-
versely affected. This drought also affected crops to be harvested
in October. The emphasis placed on the exp nsion of acreage and on
the priority restoration of irrigation syst ms was not sufficiently
effective to offset the drought damage whit reduced the harvests in
May and June.
The Viet Minh claimed that in some area production goals were
met, but they admitted that most of North Vietnam suffered from poor
harvests. In addition, the premature cons ption of spring crops by
hungry peasants has tended to accentuate the continuing shortage of
rice in both urban and rural areas.
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Prospects for the fall harvest (October) also appear to be poor.
By 5 September, heavy rains in the interior mountains had raised the
water levels of the Black and Claire Rivers, the two principal tribu-
taries of the Red River, to 55 and 73 feet, respectively. The normal
high-water level of these two rivers is from 9 to 10 feet. Upstream
the Red River was rising at the rate of 5 inches an hour, and in the
Tonkin Delta the water level at Hanoi was already at a flood level of
32 feet.
There have been no reports of breaches in dikes and no informa-
tion about the flood-fighting ability of the government, but sub-
stantial flooding of agricultural lands appears inevitable, with
effects disastrous to the production of fall rice. Such a loss
would be a major setback for North Vietnam, which is already suffering
from three consecutive crop failures.
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S -E -C -R -E -T
APPENDIX
SOURCE REFERENCES
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.," have the following significance:
Doe. - Documentary
A - Completely reliable
B - Usually reliable
C - Fairly reliable
D - Not usually reliable
E - Not reliable
F - Cannot be judged
1
- Confirmed by other sources
2
- Probably true
3
- Possibly true
4
- Doubtful
5
- Probably false
6
- Cannot be judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff
officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff of-
ficer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the
cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this
memorandum. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees
with the evaluation on the cited document.
1. CIA. CIA./RR IM-412, Outlook for Agricultural Production
in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,1955, 15 Jul 55. S/NOFORN.
2. BBC. Summary of World Broadcasts, no 640, 18 Jul 55, U.
Eval. RR 3.
CIA. FDD, Summary, no 367, p. 2. C. Eval. RR 3.
4.
FOlAb3bl
5. CIA. CIA/RR MP-122, Preliminary Estimate of 1955 Crop
Prospects and Agricultural Production in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, 17 Jun 55. S.
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25X1X7A
6.
7. CIA. FDD, Summary, no 605. U? Eval. RR 3
8. CIA? CIA/RR MP-122 (5, above).
9. State, Prague. Dsp 22, 15 Jul 55.1 U/OFF USE. FIval. RR 3.
FOIAb3bl 10.
11. Ibid., no 172, 2 Sep 55, p. HEi 2.~U/OFF USE. Eval. RR 3.
12. Ibid., no 175, 8 Sep 55. U/OF:F US . Eval. RR 3.
13. CIA, FDD, Summary, no 605, 5 Aug 55. U/OFF USE. Eval. RR 3.
FOIAb3bl 15.
16. CIA. CIA/RR MP-122 5, above .
17. CIA. CIA/RR IM-2+12 (1, above), p. 21, 15 Jul 55.
S/NOFORN.
18. State, Warsaw. T 121, 25 Aug 55.IU/OFF USE. Eval. RR 3.
FOIAb3bl 19-
20. US Weather Bureau. Daily Weather Maps. U. Eva].. RR 1.
21. CIA, FDD, Summar, no 615, 12 Aug 55, p. 14. U/OFF USE.
EvEL1. RR 3.
22. CIA. CIA/RR MP-122 (5, above).
FOIAb3bl 23.
21.. Ibid., no 155, 10 Aug 55. U OFF USE. Eval. BR ;.
25. Ibid., no 77, 20 Apr 55. U/OFF US . Eval. RR 3.
26. CIA. ORR Project 21.2+50, The 195 -55 Food Situation in the
Sino-Soviet Bloc (to be publishe . S NOFORN.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
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