QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1955

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• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 8, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 10, 1956
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
51
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1955
CIA/RR IM-421
10 February 1956
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS. INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC9 SECS.
793 AND 7911., THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AID UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
.PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
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FOREWORD
This publication is the third in a series to be issued on a quar-
terly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc. The estimates presented are intended to supersede those con-
tained in previous CIA reports and are published to satisfy consumer
requests for the most recent estimates of aircraft production in the
Bloc. A new methodology has been employed to a limited extent in
preparing the present estimates. The basis for the new methodology --
the production experience of the US aircraft industry since World
War II - contrasts with earlier methodologies utilizing the experi-
ences of World War II as a basis for estimating aircraft production.
Changes in the present estimates from past estimates have resulted
both from the methodological innovation and from later information.
No interagency coordination has been attempted, and no dissemination
of this memorandum outside of CIA is planned,
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CONTENTS
Page
Trends in Production ,.. . :, . 1
Soviet Production .. 2
3. -Satellite Production . . .. . . . . . . . . . 41.6 3
1. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc,, by Number, 1953 through 1955 . . . . . .
2. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, by Weight, 1953 through 1955 . . .
3. Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Soviet
Military Aircraft, through 1955 . . . . . . . . . 6
Estimated' Production of Aircraft in the USSR,
by Number,.1953 through 1955 . . . . .
5. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR,
by Weight, 1953 through 1955 . . . . . . . . . 8
6. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number,
.1953 through 1955 . . . ... ... . . . . . . ... . 9
US Military. Aircraft Acceptances, by. Weight,
.1953 through 1955 . . . . . . ... . . 10
8. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European
.Satellites, by Number, 1953 through 1955 . 11
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European
Satellites, by.Weight, 1953 through 1955 . . . . . 12
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Charts
Following _ Page
Figure 1. US E.nd USSR: Production .of Military
Aircraft, by Number., 1953 througg
,'5 . . . . . . . . . ? . . ~. s
19`
Figure 2. US Etind USSR: Production of Milit 'ry
Aircraft., by. Weight, 1953 th:rou
19,';5 . .. . . . ... . . .
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(oRR Project 33.1001)
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN. THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC '-~''"~'
OC.OBFR-DECEMBER1955
1. Trends in Production,
In the fourth quarter of 1955,, estimated production of aircraft
by the Sino-Soviet Bloc was almost the same as in the previous quar-
ter.** Approximately 50 percent of the aircraft produced during
the fourth quarter are believed to have been combat types".Xxx Pro_
duction of aircraft during 1955 is estimated to have declined by
about 15 percent from production in.1951+, The decline was prin-
cipally in the production of fighter aircraft in the USSR, where
production of the Fresco (MIG-1.7) is being. replaced by production
of later models,.**** A second important reason for decline was a
reduction in production of the Beagle (IL-28) caused by phasing 1
of the. 4.-Beagle production plants out of the program.
.In contrast to the reduction in numbers of aircraft produced
from.1951+.to 1955, production.of aircraft in terms of airframe
weight increased slightly.. This increase resulted from the trend
toward greater weight in modern aircraft,
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum
represent the best judgment of ORR as of 1 January 1956,
** Estimated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
from 1953 through 1955, by . number, is given in .Table 1, p. 4,
below,, and by airframe weight,:inTable 2, P?.5, below.
For the purposes of this memorandum, combat types include
bomber, fighter, and ground attack aircraft* Other aircraft such
as. helicopters and transports have uses under both combat and
noncombat conditions.
.* Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet military
aircraft through 1955 is given.in.Table 3, p. 6., below.
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2. Soviet Production.
The USSR continues to produce most of the aircraft manufactured
in ,the Sino-Soviet Bloc,,* Of the 2,187 aircraft estimated to have
been produced in the fourth .quarter of 1955,111,913 aircraft, or about
87 percent, were produced in the USSR. On the basis of airframe
weight, almost 95 percent of the total estim ted production of air-
craft in the Bloc took place in the USSR. e difference between the
Soviet share of production .on a weight basislas opposed to a unit basis
is explained 'ty the production of relat'_Lvelylighter aircraft by the
European Satellites. The Soviet share of total Bloc production' of
aircraft in 1G55 in terms of both units and pounds was not significantly
different from its share during the fourth quarter of 1955. About 90
percent of all. Bloc productlon of combat aircraft is believed to have
taken place in the USSR during 1955. 1
Recent in-,elligence information has resulted in three major changes
in the previously published estimates of Soviet production of air-
craft. The f:Lrst of these changes is a red ction in the estimated
production of the Bison because there have of been enough sightings
of the Bison at the producing plant to supprt previous estimates.
The present reduced estimates for produ.ctio of the Bison are tenta-
tive because all Bison sightings to date ma well be associated with
developmental work on the aircraft rather t an series production. A
second change results from a sighting of possible Flashlights in the
assembly area of a plant formerly listed asiproducing the Beagle.
If Flashlights are in production at this plant, the total estimated
production of the Beagle must be reduced. 'inally, previous assump-
tions that the Flashlight was being produced at Saratov have had to
be changed because of evidence of production of other new fighter air-
craft at this facility. Intelligence :information on the possible
series production of the Bear turboprop he4vy bomber has been scanty
and unconvincing, although at least seven f these aircraft are known
to have been built.
During 1955, production of purely mili-ary aircraft (bombers and
fighters) in the US exceeded estimated. production in the USSR by
Produetial of aircraft in the USSR from 1953 through .1955, by
number, is given in. Table 1, p- 7, below,.aid by airframe weight,
in Table 5y p. 8y below.
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about 10 percent. The trend toward greater production of military
types in the US during the first 3 quarters of 1955, however, was
reversed during the fourth quarter of 1955, when the USSR. produced
about 10 percent more military aircraft than the US.*
3. Satellite Production.
In the fourth quarter of 1955 the European Satellites produced an
estimated total of 274 aircraft, or about 13 percent of the total
production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,** There is still no
indication thatCommunist China or the Asiatic Satellites are pro-
ducing aircraft.. Czechoslovakia is still the largest producer among
the Satellites, accounting for an estimated 70 percent of the total
Satellite production of aircraft, by number, during 1955. Because
Poland's share of the total Satellite production in 1955 was roughly
25 percent, Czechoslovakia and Poland together are estimated to have
accounted for virtually all of the Satellite production of aircraft
in 1955,
Production of Fagot (MIG-15) Jet fighters in. Czechoslovakia is
estimated to have declined from 23 to about 10 aircraft per month
during the fourth quarter of 1955. It is believed that this decline
is associated with the beginning of production of the.Fresco at the
Vodochody plant.
Production of military aircraft in the USSR and the US from 1953
through 1955 is compared, by.number, in Figure 1, following p..12,
and by.airframe weight, in Figure 2, following p. 12, For additional
comparison, US military aircraft acceptances from 1953 thr-ough 1955,
by number, are given in Table 6, p. 9, below, and by airframe weight,
in-Table 7, p. 10, below.
.** Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellites from
1953 through 1955, by number, is given in Table 8, p. 11, below, and
by airframe weight, in. Table 9, p. 12, below.
-3
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Table 1
Estimated.Prodxction of Aircraft in the Sino=Soviet Bloc, by Number
1953 through 1955 11
Type of Aircraft
1953
Jet bomber
Heavy
0
Medium
10
Light
1,404
Piston bomber
Medium
134
Jet fighter
4,040
Ground attack
457
Transport
1,722
Trainer
Jet
522
Piston
877
Others a
728
Total
9,2894
4
1955
10
61
170
306
1,280
991
0
4,173
3,446
207
6o
1,741
1,067
1,157
1,344
7,077
1,158
626 530
101,14.1 8,963
Units
?1955
lst
Quarte
2d
Quarter
3d
Quarter
4th
Quarter
91
13
17
22
66
73
81
86
27
250
239
231.
0
0
a
93E
861
849
798
30
0
0
251
264
272
277
33
336
336
336
28
291
291
.292
13
121
132
145
2 _32Q
2,4239
2, 217
22.,.187
a. Helicopters, gliders, seaplanes, and lit-"l ty aircraft.
- 4
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Table 2
Estimated.Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by-.Weight
1953 through 1955
Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight _a/
1955
lst
2d
3d
4th
Type of Aircraft
953
1954
1955
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Jet bomber
Heavy
0
1,118
.6, 818
1,006
= ~, 453
900
2, 45 9
Medium
508
8,629
15,534
3,351
3,706
312
4,365
Light
25,601
23,280
18,022
4,928
4,547
;346
4,201
Piston. bomber
Medium
.6,963
0
0
0
.0
0
0
Jet fighter
28,516
29,228
26,671
6,688
6,500
6,704
6,779
Ground attack
3,700
1,676
486
243
243
0
0
Transport
9,046
9,638
8,358
1,845
.2,037
2,190
.2,286
Trainer
Jet
3,214
8,663
9,860
2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465=
Piston
907
.19353
1,756
424
.444
443
445,
Others
6,797
69713
6,oo6
1,481
1,396
.1,513
1,616
Total
85,252
90,298
93,511
22,431
22,791
23,673
24,616
a.. These figures include production of spare parts.
~b.. Helicopters, gliders, seaplanes, and utility aircraft.
-5-
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Table 3
Estimated Cumulative Frodu tion
of Selected Soviet Military Aircraft
through 1955 1
Badger
Beagle
Bison
Farmer
Flashlight
Fresco
Horse
Hound
New fighter
Type of Aircraft
Jet medium bomber
Jet light bomber
Jet heavy bomber
Jet fighter
Jet all-weather interceptor
Jet fighter
Helicopter
Helicopter
Probable jet fighter
Estimated
Cumulative Production
486
6,oo8
71
183
212
8,9766
16
532
61
-6-
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Table 4
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Number
1953 through 1955
1955
lst
2d -3d
4th
Type of Aircraft
53
19
1 4
9 ~
1955
Quarter
Quarter quarter
Qua
t
....
er
r
Heavy
0
10
61
9
13
17
22
Medium
10
170
306
66
73
81
86
Light
1,404
1,280
991
271
250
239
231
-Piston bomber
Medium
.134
0
0
0
0
.0
0
Jet fighter
3,742
3,633
2,899
795
713
701
69o
Transport
1,722
1,741
1,067
254
264
272
277
Trainer
Jet
522
1,068
.1,068
.267
267
267
i
267
Piston
684
828
828
207
.207
207
207
Others
.683
.602
493
:125
113
.122
133
Total
1901
91332
7,713
1,994
.1,900
196
1
913
,
Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes.
7-
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Table 5
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the
1953 through 1955
Thousand
USSR, by Weight
Pounds of Airframe Weight _/
1955
1st 2d 3d 4th
Type of Aircraft 1953 1954 1955 Quart r Quarter Quarter Quarter
Jet bomber I
Heavy 0 1,118 6,818 1,00 1,453 .1,900 2,459
Medium 508 8,629 15,534 3,35 3,706 4,112 4,365
Light 25,601 23,280 18,022 4,921 4,547 4,346 4,201
Piston bomber
Medium 6,963 0 0 p 0 0 0
.Jet fighter 26,719 25,790 23,371 5,82j
Transport 9,046 9,638 8,358 1.,846
Trainer
5,607 5,811 6,128
2, 037 21190 2, 286
Jet 3,214 8,092 8,092 22023 2,023 2,023 2,023
Piston 698 919 992 248 248 248 248
Others b 6,742 6,696 5,958 1:4-15 1,389 1,503 1,601
Total 79,491 842342 87,155 20,7(1 21,010 '.2,133 23,311
a. These figures include production of spare
.b. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes.
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Table 6
US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number
1953 through 1955
Helicopters, flying boats, amphibians, and lighter-than-air.
- 9 -
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Units
1955
1st
2d
3d
4th
Type of Aircraft
1953
1954
1955
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Bomber
Heavy
63
28
34
5
6
10
13
Medium
647
767
530
161
146
1.17
ao6
Light
464
966
786
211
234
182
159
Fighter
4,665
3.,518
.4,017
1,064
1,249
959
745
Transport
784
634
536
153
121
.131
131
Trainer
1,961
.1,602
1,439
345.
362
378
354
Others a/
2,046
1,235
703
153
162
159
229
Total
10,630
8,750
8,045
2,092
2,280
11536
1,737
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Table 7
US K.litary Aircraft Acceptances, 11
y Weight
1953 through 1955
Thousan
d Pounds of Airframe Weight J
1955
i
l
t
2d
3d
4th
Type of Aircraft
1953
1954
1955
Q
er
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Bomber
Heavy
7,123
3,304
3,853
72
686
1,129.
1,4.66
Medium
30,034
.37,296
26,376
8,
19
7,373
5,834
5,150
Light
4,621
9,627
8,758
2,1
92
2,4.66
2,155
1,845
Fighter
40,682
35,390
43,160
11,4
72
13,151
10,374
8,563
Transport
36,9550
30,614
20,697
6,
426
4,551
49771
49949
Trainer
11,302
99633
7,452
2,
18
2,003
1,816
1,415
Others b/
7,819
49831
4,399
56
1,305
1,000
1,138
Total
131
138
695
130
114
695
31
55
31,535
279079
24,526
,.
,
2
a. .These figures do not include the production If spare parts.
b. Helicopters, flying boats, amphibians, and lighter-than-air..
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