QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC APRIL-JUNE 1956

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• Publication Date: July 20, 1956
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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
APRIL-JUNE 1956
CIA/RR IM-432
20 July 1956
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 180 UBC, SECS.
793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
This publication is the fifth in a series to be issued on a quar-
terly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
The estimates presented are intended to supersede those contained in
previous ORE reports and are published to satisfy the requests of con-
sumers for the most recent estimates of production of aircraft in the
Bloc. The new methodology, based upon the experience of the US air-
craft industry in production since World War II -- which was employed
to a limited extent in the past two publications -- has been employed
to a greater extent in preparing the present estimates. Changes in
the present estimates from past estimates, however, have resulted
from more recent intelligence rather than specifically from the new
methodology. No interagency coordination has been attempted, and no
dissemination of this memorandum outside of CIA is planned.
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CONTENTS
Page
1, Trends in Production
2. Soviet Production
3. Satellite Production
Tables
1. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,
by Number, 1953 Through Second Quarter 1956 .... .
2. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,
by Weight, 1953 Through Second Quarter 1956 .... . ?
3. Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Soviet Mili-
tary Aircraft, Through Second Quarter 1956 7
4. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Number,
1953 Through Second Quarter 1956 ........ . . . . 8
5. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Weight,
1953 Through Second Quarter 1956 9
6. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number, 1953 Through
Second Quarter 1956 10
7. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight, 1953 Through
Second Quarter 1956 11
8. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites,
by Number, 1953 Through Second Quarter 1956 12
9. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites,
by Weight, 1953 Through Second Quarter 1956 13
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Charts
Figure 1. US and USSR: Production
by Number, 1953 Through
Figure 2. US and USSR: Production
by Weight, 1953 Through
Following Page
of Military Aircraft,
Second Quarter 1956 . . 14
of Military Aircraft,
Second Quarter 1956 . .
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CIA/RR IM-432 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORB Project 33.1071)
qUARLERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN TBE SINO-SOVIET BLCC
1953 THROUGH JUNE 1956*
1. Trends in Production.
In the second quarter of 1956, estimated production of aircraft by
the Sino-Soviet Bloc increased about 5 percent over production in the
previous quarter.** The increase was mainly in the production of
fighter aircraft in the USSR, where production of new models continues
to advance along the estimated production acceleration curve.*** Pro-
duction in terms of airframe weight registered an even larger increase,
almost 10 percent over that of the previous quarter. The larger in-
crease in airframe weight reflects rising rates of production of heavy
bombers and the replacement in production of the Fresco (MIG-17)
fighter by the heavier Farmer and Flashlight models. Somewhat less
than 60 percent of the aircraft produced during the second quarter
of 1956 are believed to have been combat types.****
2. Soviet Production.
The Soviet share Of the estimated total production of aircraft
by the Sino-Soviet Bloc remained essentially unchanged during the
second quarter of 1956.***** Of the 2,300 aircraft estimated to
have been produced by the Bloc during the quarter, about 2,000, or
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum
represent the best judgment of ORB as of 25 June 1956.
** Estimated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
from 1953 through the second quarter of 19561 by number, is given
in Table 1, p. 5, below, and by airframe weight, in Table 2, p. 6,
below.
*** Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet military
aircraft through the second quarter of 1956 is given in Table 3,
p. 7, below.
**** For the purposes of this memorandum, combat types include
bomber, fighter, and ground attack aircraft. Other aircraft such
as helicopters and transports have uses under both combat and
noncombat conditions.
***** Production of aircraft in the USSR from 1953 through the
second quarter of 1956, by number, is given in Table 41 p. 81
below, and by airframe weight, in Table 5, p. 9, below.
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roughly 85 percent, were produced in the USSR. On the basis Df air-
frame weight, almost 95 percent of the production took place in the
USSR. This figure continues to emphasize the fact that the Satellites
produce relatively lighter aircraft. About 90 percent of all produc-
tion of combat aircraft by the Bloc during the second quarter of 1956
is believed to have taken place in the USSR.
Recent intelligence information has resulted in several changes ih
previously published estimates of Soviet production of aircraft.
?a maximum of 27
Bisons had been produced through 1955. This reduction in production
of Bisons from previous estimates is strongly supported by the limited
number of sightings of Bisons at the producing plant, which is located
in Moscow. It is estimated that by the end of June 1956 a cumulative
total of 56 Bisons had been produced.*
25X1B4d
the Bear, the four-engine turboprop heavy
bomber, is in series production. The
producing plant, No. 18 in Kuybyshev, is estimated to have produced a
cumulative total-of 44 Bears by the end of June 1956.
25X1B4d9
A recent reliable sighting at the airframe plant in Rostov indicates
that production of a new model, either a jet trainer or fighter, is in
progress. Production of this aircraft, tentatively carried as a jet
trainer in this publication, is estimated to have begun during the first
quarter of 1956. Continued surveillance of Plant No. 30 in Moscow
reveals the absence of Beagle (11-28) delivery flights since February 1956.
Such absence probably indicates the cessation of production of Beagles
and the imminent production of a new aircraft at the plant. This new
production may be the new jet light bomber seen during the recent
Aviation -Day Airshow rehearsals. Evidence is insufficient at present
to determine whether this new bomber is a prototype of a production
model.
* Evidence received too late to include in the present estimate indi-
cates.the possibility that less than 10 Bisons had been produced during
the first two quarters of 1956. This information, after analysis and,
evaluation', will be integrated into the next publication in this series,
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Estimates of production of Farmers and Flashlights have been re-
vised upward because of a recalculation of the airframe weights of
these aircraft by USAF, AFOIN-4. The weight of the Farmer has been
reduced from 9,800 lbs to 85000 lbs and that of the Flashlight, from
10,300 lbs to 8,800 lbs.
It is estimated that during the second quarter of 1956 Soviet
production of military aircraft exceeded that of the US by about 20
percent.* In terms of airframe weight, Soviet production of military
aircraft exceeded that of the US by about 15 percent.
3. Satellite Production.
In the second quarter of 1956 the European Satellites produced
an estimated total of 340 aircraft, or about 15 percent of total
production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc.** Czechoslovakia
and Poland remain the largest producers among the Satellites, ac-
counting for about 73 and 24 percent, respectively, or a combined
total of about 97 percent, of Satellite production of aircraft by
number.
During the first half of 1956 the newly organized facility for
production of aircraft at Dresden in East Germany assembled a small
quantity of Crate (I1-14) twin-engine transport aircraft from Soviet-
manufactured and semi-processed parts as a prelude to local produc-
tion, which reportedly is to begin late in 1956. There have been
indications that substantial Soviet aid will permit Communist China
to undertake production of aircraft by the latter part of 1956.
* Production of military aircraft in the USSR and the US from 1953
through the second quarter of 1956 are compared, by number, in Figure 1,
following p. 14, and by airframe weight, in Figure 2, following p. 14.
For additional comparison, US military aircraft acceptances from 1953
through the second quarter of 1956, by number, are given in Table 6,
p. 10, below, and by airframe weight, in Table 7, p. 11, below.
** Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellites from
1953 through the second quarter of 1956, by number, is given in
Table 8, p. 12, below, and by airframe weight, in Table 9, p. 13,
below.
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New production of two aircraft of known design has begun in Czech-
oslovakia. A trial series of the Soviet Crate was produced at the
Prague/Cakovice "Avian plant in the first half of 1956. The sports
plane plant at Chocen is believed to be producing the Brigadyr (L-60),
a light aircraft adapted from the German Fieseler Storch, for crop dust-
ing.
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Table 1
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Number
1953 Through Second Quarter of 1956
Units 2/
1st Quarter
of
2d Quarter
of
Type of Aircraft
1953
1954
,1955 ,
1956.
1956
Jet bomber
.
Heavy
0
2
25
13
16:
Medium
10
160
300
84
87
Light
1,400
1,300
980
180
180,
Turboprop bomber
Heavy
0
0
6
15
23
Piston bomber
Medium
130
0
0
0
0
Jet fighter
4,000
11.,300
3,800
870
91.1.0
Ground attack
460
210
60
o
0
Transport
1,700
1,700
830
230
240
Trainer.
Jet
520
1,200
1,400
350
360'
Piston
88o
1,100
1,200
300
300
Others hi
700
670
590
160
160
Total
9,900.
4,000
9,100
2,200
2,3_00
A. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits
consistent with estimating procedures.
b. Helicopters, gliders, seaplanes, and utility aircraft.
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Table 2
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Weight
1953 Through Second Quarter of 1956
Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight
1st Quarter 2d Quarter
of of
Type of Aircraft 1953 1954 1955 1956 1256
Jet bomber
Heavy 0 220 2,800 1,500 1,800
Medium 510 8,200 15,000 4,300 4,400
Light 26,000 23,000 18,000 3,300 3,200
Turboprop bomber
Heavy 0 0 . 540 1,300 2,100
Piston bomber
Medium 7,000 o
Jet fighter 28,000 30,000 28,000 7,400 8,200
Ground attack 3,800 1,700 500 0 0
Transport 9,100 9,400 3,600 1,400 .1,600.
Trainer
Jet 3,200 8,600 9,800 2,200 2,200
Piston 890 1,500 2,000 490 490
Others h/ 6,800 6,600 5,600 1,500 1,600
Total 85,000 90,000 86,000. 23,000 26,000
a. These figures include production of spare parts and are rounded
to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with
estimating procedures.
b. Helicopters, gliders, seaplanes, and utility aircraft.
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Table 3
Estimated. Cumulative Production of Selected Soviet Military Aircraft
,Through Second Quarter,of 1956
Units 21/
Model
Badger
Beagle
Bear
Bison
Camel
Farmer
Flashlight
Fresco
Horse
Hound
New fighter
Unidentified
aircraft
,Type of Aircraft Production to 1 July 196
Jet medium bomber
Jet light bomber'
Turboprop heavy bomber
Jet heavy bomber
Jet transport, .
Jet. fighter
Jet all-weather interceptor
Jet fighter
Helicopter
Helicopter
Probable jet fighter
,640
4,5oo
44
56 12/
19
7,20
580
9,900
34
450
280,
Probable jet trainer or fighter ,12
a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consist-
ent with estimating procedures.
b. Evidence received too latd to include in the present estimate indi-
cates the probability that the total cumulative production, of-Bisons
to the end of June 1956 was not greater than about 35. This recent
information, after analysis and evaluation, will be integrated into
the n.:xt publication in this series.
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Table 4
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Number
1953 Through Second Quarter of' 1956
?
Type of Aircraft
Jet bomber
Heavy
Medium
Light
Turboprop bomber
Heavy
Piston bomber
i,?aili;n
Units .E./
1st Quarter
of
2d Quarter
of
1223_
1954
1222_
1956
1956
0
2
25
13
16
10
160
300
84
87
1,400
1,300
980
180
180
o
15
130
0
0
0
Jet fighter
3,700
3,800
3,200
760
820
Transport
1,700
1,700
810
220
220
Trainer
Jet
520
1,100
1,100
240 .
250
Piston
680
830
830
210
210
Others. 12/
680
650
570
150
16o
Total
8,900
2,500
7,800
1,870
1,960
a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits
consistent with estimating procedures.
b. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes.
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Table 5
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR:, by Weight
1953 Through Second. Quarter of 1956
Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight a/
Type of Aircraft
1053
1954
1955
1st Quarter
of
1956.
2d Quarter
of
1956
Jet bomber
Heavy
0
220;
2,800
1,500
_1J800
Medium
510
8,200
15,000
4,300
4,400
Light
26,000
23,000
18,000
3,300
.3,200
Turboprop bomber
HeaVy0.
0
540,
1,300
2,100
Piston bomber
Medium
7,000,
0
0
0
0
Jet fighter,
27;000
27,000
25,000
6,800
.7,600
Transport
9,000
9,400
3,600
1,300
1,500
Trainer
Jet
3,200
8,100
7,900
1,500
: 1;600
Piston
TOO
920
990
250
250
Others 12/
6,700
6,600
6,5oo
1,500
1,500
Total
79,000
84,000
80,000
22,000
_...
24,000
a. These figures include production of spare parts and are rounded
to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with
estimating procedures.
b. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes.
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Table 6
U$ Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number
1953 Through Second Quarter of 195612/
Units
Type of Aircraft
1953
1954
1955.
1st Quarter
of
1956
2d Quarter
of
1X112/
Bomber
Heavy
63
28
34
6
lo
Medium
647
767
530
128
131
. Light
23
106
155
29
15
Ground attack
441
860
631
135
111
Fighter
4,665
3,518
4,017
600
628
Transport
784
634
536
99
121
Trainer
1,961
1,602
1,439
286
223
Others 2/
2,046
1,235
701
218
236
Total
10,630
8,750
8,043
1,501
1,475
a. The source for these figures is Office of the Assistant
Secretary of Defense (Supply and Logistics), Statistics Branch,
US Military Aircraft Acceptances, 1953-56, Number and Airframe
Weight) June 195-6. CONFIDENTIAL.
b. Includes preliminary data for June 1956.
c. Helicopters, flying boats, amphibians, and lighter-than-air.
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Table 7
US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight
1953 Through Second Quarter of 1956 2/
Thousand Pounds Of Airframe Weight
Type_ of Aircraft
1953
l5
1955
1st Quarter
of
1956
2d Quarter
of
1956 11/
Bomber
Heavy::
7,123
3,304
3,853
678
1,128
Medi*
30,034
37,296
26,377
5,901
5,831L
Light
395
:1,834
2,724
547
293
Ground attack
4,226
7,793
6,034
1,369
1,270:
Fighter
40,682
-35,390
43,161
7,068
7,363
Transport
36,550
30,614
20,697
3,611
4,500
Trainer
11,302
9,633
7,453
1,064
778
Others 2/
7,819
4,831
4,397
1,160
1,465
,
Total',
138,131
130,695
114,696
21,398
22,691 i.
a. The 'source for these figures is Office of the Assistant Secre;.
tary of Defense (Supply and:Logistics),'StatisticsSranch;US Mili-
tary Aircraft Acceptances, 19,53-56, Number and Airframe WeiEht,
June 1956. CONFIDENTIAL.
,
b. Includes prelimnary data for June 1956.
d. Helicopters; flying boats; amphibians, And lighter-than-air.
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Table 8 >
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> -0
TS n
TS Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites, by Number o
<
n
O 1953 Through Second Quarter of 1956 m
< a
m m
a o
m n
O Units 2/ X
n M
X CT
M 0
CV 1st Quarter 2d Quarter m
O of of m
m
m Country Type of Aircraft 1953 1954 1955 , 1956 1956 8
up
8 up
up0
up Czechoslovakia Jet fighter 290 390 240 33 33 up
o Ground attack 460 210 60 o o r..)
CD_.
Jet trainer 0 90 310 105 105 -
_. Piston trainer 70 190 360 90 90 0
"
0 Small transport 25 0 18 12 19 ?'
?
Other o o o 1 3 x " o
x -0
0 ???1
-0 Total 840 880 222 240
???1 ?I
CD 0
?I Poland Jet fighter 4 15o 310 79 79 0
0 up
o Piston trainer 0 60 o o o (.4
ol
CD
C.4 >
ol o
> Total 4 210 222
0
0
0
0 0
4:. Bulgaria Piston trainer 100 0 0 o o 0
0
0
o Rumania Piston trainer 24 24 24 6 6 up
0
0
up Hungary Utility 20 24 24 6 6 0
0
0
o r..)
c 5
o
r..) Grand total 990 1,140
1-4-3P- a) 1=
c 5
=
a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent
with estimating procedures.
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Table 9
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites, by Weight
1953 Through Second Quarter of 1956
Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight PI
1st Quarter
of
2d Quarter
of
Country
Type of Aircraft
19 3
1954
1955
1956_
1956
Czechoslovakia
Jet fighter
1,700
2,300
1,400
200
200
Ground attack
3,800
1,700
500
0
0
Jet trainer
0
550
1,900
650
650
Piston trainer
72
450
960
240
240
Small transport
39
o
28
36
47
Other
0
0
0
1
4
Total
5,700
5,100
4,800
1,100
12 100
_..--._
?.--
Poland
Jet fighter
24
860
1,800
470
470
Piston trainer
o
61
o
o
o
Total
24
920
1,800
17.9
Bulgaria
Piston trainer
120
0
0
0
0
Rumania
Piston trainer
22
22
22
6
6
Hungary
Utility
14
17
17
4
Grand total
5,800
6 000
6,700
1,600
1,600
a. These figures include production of spare parts. Rounded to reflect the
maximum number of significant digits consistent with estimating procedures.
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SECRET USaand USSRb
PRODUCTION OF MILITARY AIRCRAFT; BY NUMBER
1953 through Second Quarter 1956
5,839
US USSR
1953
25535 7-56
5,279
5,300
US USSR
1954
5,367
US
USSR
1955
SECRET
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
898
z
?
a , ,
US totals include preliminary
data for June 1956.
(__LJK totals are rounded.
C
combers and fighters.
US Bombers
US Fighters and ground attack
USSR Bombers
ni USSR Fighters and ground attack
1,050
US USSR
First Quarter
1956
895
Figure 1.
1,100
US USSR
Second Quarter
1956
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SECRET
82.5
61
USaargl USSR'
PRODUCTION OF MILITARY -AIRCRAFT: BY WEIGHT'
1953 through Second Quarter 1956
(Million pounds of airframe weight)
US USSR
1953
25536 7-56
85.6
58
US USSR
1954
82.1
61
US USSR
1955
SECRET
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
15.6
a U.) , , ? ,
totals include preliminary
b data for June 1956.
USSR totals are rounded.
C ,
ffornbers and fighters.
dUS figures do not include
spare parts production.
US Bombers
US Fighters and ground attack
USSR Bombers
USSR Fighters and ground attack
17
US USSR
First Quarter
1956
15.9
Figure 2.
19
US USSR
Second Quarter
1956
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