MAJOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS GOALS OF THE SOVIET SIXTH FIVE YEAR PLAN (1956-60)

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• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
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• Publication Date: January 9, 1957
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
MAJOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS GOALS
OF THE SOVIET SIXTH FIVE YEAR PLAN
(1956-60)
CIA/RR IM-444
9 January 1957
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
Office of Research and Reports
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Page
VIII. Status of Telecommunications in 1960 . . . . . . 13
Appendix
Source References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Tables
1. Estimated Capacity and Planned Increase
in Capacity of Urban Telephone Systems
in the USSR, 1955 and 1960 . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2. Estimated Capital. Investment for Telecommunica-
tions Facilities, in the USSR, 1956-60 . . . . . 12
3. Estimated Consumer Expenditures for Tele-
communications in the USSR, 1956-60 . . .
Figure 1. USSR: Principal Telecommunications
Facilities, 1956 (Map) . . . . . . . . . 4
Figure 2. USSR: Television Stations, 1956-60
(Map) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Figure 3. USSR: Estimated Radio and Television
Broadcast Reception Facilities in Use,
195 5 -60 (Chart) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
iv -
S -E -C -R -E-T
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S-E-C-R-E-T
CONTENTS
Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Announced Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II. Trunklines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
A. Routes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
B. Microwave Radio Relay Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
C. Coaxial Cable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
III. Television
A. Television Transmission Base . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1. Major Television Stations . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2. Relay Television Stations . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3. Local Television Stations . . . . . . . . . . . 7
B. Color Television . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
C. Mobile Auxiliary Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
D. Television Reception Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
IV. Aural Broadcasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
A. Transmission Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
B. Reception Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
V. Telegraph Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
VI. Telephone Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
A. Intercity (Long-Distance) Service . . . . . . . . . 10
B. City Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
C. Intrarayon Communications Service . . . . . . . . . 12
VII. Financial Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
A. Capital Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
B. Consumer Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
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CIA/RR IM-4.1. S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 46.161+1)
MAJOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS GOALS
OF THE SOVIET SIXTH FIVE YEAR PLAN
195-0*
Summary and Conclusions
Increasing economic investments are being made in telecommuni-
cations in the USSR to satisfy more exacting demands for specialized
service capacities, for absolute reliability and instantaneous
readiness of service, and for total security.
The Soviet Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-60) is far more comprehen-
sive and ambitious concerning the construction of communications
facilities than previous Plans, and it appears to point toward the
overcoming of several obvious, longstanding telecommunications vulner-
abilities. It is believed that the successful completion of the Plan
will also materially increase telecommunications support for military
purposes.
It is estimated that the Soviet Sixth Five Year Plan will entail
capital investments of about 8 billion rubles in telecommunications
plant and equipment for its basic civil system. Consumption expendi-
tures by the public are estimated to'be about 35 billion rubles for
the purchase, licensing, and rental of radio and television broadcast
reception facilities. Both of these outlays for investment and con-
sumption appear to be within Soviet capabilities. It is concluded
that the announced goals of the Sixth Five Year Plan for telecommuni-
cations are feasible.
I. Announced Objectives.
The program for expansion and improvement of telecommunications
services in the USSR under the Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-60) em-
phasizes, in general terms, modernization in the European USSR and
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum repre-
sent the best judgment of ORR as of 15 November 1956.
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Western Siberia to a level approaching that of Western Europe and
modernization in Central and Eastern Siberia to the level recently
prevailing in the European USSR. The announced major goals include
the following 1/*:
1. The establishment of a network of potentially high-capacity
trunklines by installing not less than 10,000 kilometers (km) of
microwave radio relay lines and by laying twice as much underground
high-capacity (including coaxial) cable as was laid during the Fifth
Five Year Plan (1951-55).
2. An increase in the number of major television transmitting
stations from 11 (at the end of 1955) to 75 (at the end of 1960) and
the linking of a number of these stations into a network for the
relaying of television programs. These television transmitting sta-
tions are to be located in all republic capitals and major cities.
3. An increase in the number of television receivers from
approximately 800,000 at the end of 1955 to 8 million in 1960, thus
providing television service to approximately 25 million to 30 million
viewers.
4. An increase by 90 percent in the total power of the radio-
broadcasting transmission network*** and the introduction of very-high-
frequency (VHF), frequency modulation (FM) broadcasting in the European
USSR.
5. The completion of geographical coverage of the USSR with aural
radiobroadcasting reception facilities by means of wire-diffusion
For serially numbered source references, see the Appendix.
High capacity denotes telecommunications cable or radio relay
systems having a capacity of from several hundred to as high as 3,600
telephone channels. Telephone channel capacity denotes the number of
telephone conversations which can be carried simultaneously between
two points. Up to 24 two-way telegraph channels can be derived
from one telephone channel. For the transmission of television
programs of acceptable picture quality, a capacity equivalent to 450
telephone channels is required. The same radio relay or coaxial cable
facilities which transmit television programs can be diverted to,
time-shared with, or shared by telegraph, telephone, and facsimile
services, depending upon the total capacity of a specific link.
xxx This figure may apply to increases in the number and power of
wire-diffusion centers or radiobroadcasting transmitters or both.
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loudspeakers (radiofication) and with independent receivers by an
increase in reception units from 25 million to 67 million.
6. An increase in the capacity and speed of telegraph service
through automation and mechanization of operations and in subscriber
(leased) service by four times.
7. The wide extension of phototelegraphic (facsimile) service
through an increase of facsimile apparatus by five times.
8. An increase in the aggregate length of interurban telephone
channels by almost 2.5 times compared with 1955. The aggregate length
of such channels connecting Moscow with the Far East and Eastern Siberia
is to be increased by more than 7 times, with Western Siberia and
the Urals by 5 times, and with the Central Asian republics* by 3 times.
9. An increase in the total capacity of city telephone exchanges
by 40 percent.
10. An increase in the number of subscribers to the intrarayon
communications "of general use"** by 33 percent.
Recently published Soviet statistics on telecommunications
services in the USSR tend to support US intelligence estimates that
the basic civil wire system has been one of relatively low capacity. 2/
As is shown in the accompanying map (Figure l***), this network
consists chiefly of open wire, with carrier equipment on many routes
permitting simultaneous operation of as many as 15 telephone channels.
Some relatively short cable lines complete the wire network. This
wire-line system is supplemented by a few short microwave radio relay
routes and by a network of high-frequency, long-distance radio communi-
cations stations.
This telecommunications system has apparently served the minimum
peacetime needs of the USSR thus far, but it is patently antiquated
in terms of world technological progress. The need for expanded, more
efficient facilities -- in terms of standardization, capacity, speed,
flexibility, reliability, accuracy, and security -- to satisfy post-
World War II needs has been and is increasing significantly. The need
* For the purposes of this memorandum the term Central Asian republics
refers specifically to Kazakh, Kirgiz, Tadzhik, Turkmen, and Uzbek SSR's.
The exact meaning of the term of general use is not known.
Following p. 4.
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for expansion and modernization has been underscored by the acceler-
ating growth in industry and agriculture, in government control
structure and techniques, in. civil defense requirements, and in mili-
tary demands generally.
The goals of the Sixth Five Year Plan indicate that the USSR is
taking decisive steps toward achievement of a telecommunications
system commensurate to its current and future needs.
The most important goal for telecommunications services in the
Sixth Five Year Plan is the expansion of the trunkline system through
the installation of at least 10,000 km (6,000 miles) of microwave
radio relay lines and the increase of coaxial cable routes by approxi-
mately 2 times.
The reported routes of the microwave radio relay lines are
shown on the map (Figure 1*). These are the routes announced in
Soviet press, radio, and technical journals, with the exception of the
route from Kuybyshev to Tashkent, which has been assumed on the basis
of existing facilities and geographic considerations. By rough calcu-
lation of airline distances,; the routes total approximately 9,000 km
(5,400 miles). Inasmuch as actual route distances would be somewhat
greater than airline distances, it is probable that these routes approx-
imate the total projected under the Plan.
None of the planned coaxial cable routes has been revealed. It
is probable that these routes will be located west or southwest of Mos-
cow and will interconnect major cities in those portions of the USSR
and the European Satellites.
B. Microwave Radio Relay Lines.
Soviet announcements concerning the Plan are specific that the
microwave radio relay line from Leningrad to Tallin-Riga-Vil'nyus-Minsk,
which will serve to relay television programs, will be completed in
1958 3/; that operation of a similar line between Yerevan, Tiflis, and
Baku will begin in 1957; and that television programs will be relayed
to those points from Moscow, Leningrad, and other cities in 1.960. 4/ A
* Following p. 4.
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third route -- from Moscow to Gor'kiy continuing eastward to
Sverdlovsk and from Gor'kiy southeastward presumably by way of
Kuybyshev to Tashkent -- also has been announced, but no date has
been given either for its commencement or for its completion. Relay
of television programs from Moscow to Tashkent, however, is promised
during the Plan. 5/ An announcement in connection with Radio Day
(7 May), 1956, stated that "at present work is going on in connection
with designing these lines in southern and eastern directions." 6/
Announcements have been made that a number of the planned micro-
wave radio relay lines will be employed for 24-channel telephone
service and for relay of television programs. Publicity attendant
upon the announcements of the telecommunications goals of the Sixth
Five Year Plan and the celebration of Radio Day heavily stressed
research and development and the use of mass-production methods in
manufacturing the equipment necessary to achieve the announced goals.
Reports from the USSR, East Germany, and Hungary indicate that research
and development of equipment for high-capacity utilization of long-
distance lines is presently under way. 7/
C. Coaxial Cable.
Either microwave radio relay or coaxial cable facilities are
a requisite for relaying television programs over long distances. The
coaxial cable from Moscow to Leningrad is reported to be a nonstandard
type with a capacity of 250 telephone channels. Some improvements
have made possible the transmission of television programs along
this cable from the Moscow television center to Kalinin, a distance
of about 140 km (84 miles). 8/ This relay of television programs has
been announced as the first in the USSR.
Other underground high-capacity cables have been reported to
radiate from Moscow toward the western periphery, probably by way of
Minsk or Kiev, to Satellite capitals and toward the Black Sea area.
The fact that no television programs have been relayed to existing
stations west or southwest of Moscow suggests that cable facilities in
these areas are not of the coaxial type.* The use of coaxial cable in
the future for exchange of television programs with Czechoslovakia is
given some credence by the recent conference on that subject between
Czechoslovak and Soviet communications officials. 9/ The possibility
* This absence of -television network service also implies that micro-
wave media are likewise not available for such service.
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exists, however, that a Czechoslovak coaxial cable may be connected
to a Soviet microwave link in order to relay television programs
between the two countries.
The widespread expansion of television broadcasting in the USSR
is the second most significant aspect of telecommunications goals in
the Sixth Five Year Plan.
The television transmission base will comprise three types of
stations, which for the purposes of this report are designated as
follows: (1) major television stations that originate programs and in
many instances participate in network exchange of programs, (2) relay
television stations that extend the immediate area of coverage of a
major television station, and (3) local television stations which may
either originate or relay programs but which operate on a very small
scale.
The Ministry of Communications owns and operates -the major
stations and the relay stations. Local stations are owned and ope-
rated by groups of television amateurs and research institutes, local
enterprises, and other ministries. Information on the expansion of
television service under the Sixth Five Year Plan is concerned primarily
with the development of the major and relay stations. The establish-
ment of local television stations may be encouraged for areas that
are not included in the Plan for the Ministry of Communications.
All three types of television stations, to be operational by
the end of 1960, will total 127. The accompanying map (Figure 2*) shows
the locations of 123 of these stations; the locations of the remaining
4 stations have not been determined.
1. Major Television Stations. ..
At the end of June 1956 there were 12 major television
stations in regular operation in the USSR. 10/ This number is to be
increased to 20 by the end of 1956, to i4 by the end of 1958, and to
75 by the end of 1960. 11/
* Following p. 6.
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2. Relay Television Stations.
In order to extend the service area of the major television
stations, one or more automatic relay stations may be located within
a radius of 100 to 120 km from the major station. In June 1956 there
were 4 such relay stations in operation in the USSR, and it is planned
to increase this number to 180. 12/ The time limit for the establish-
ment of all 180 stations was not announced in connection with the Plan,
but at least 44 such stations are to be in operation by the end of
1960. 13/
Three local television stations are in operation in the
USSR, and at least, eight are planned for operation by the end of 1960. 14/
B. Color Television.
At present, television transmission in the USSR is in black
and white only. The Sixth Five Year Plan calls for the introduction
of color television within the next 3 years. 15/ Color television is
still in the early stages of development in the USSR, however, and the
Plan announcements give no indication of the extent of its operation,
if any, by the end, of 1960. Collaboration by the USSR, Czechoslovakia,
and East Germany on research in color television techniques is report-
edly taking place.
C. Mobile Auxiliary Equipment.
The use of mobile television transmitters for remote program
pickup is employed in connection with the television stations in Riga,
Moscow, Leningrad, and Kiev. 16/ It is intended eventually to have mobile
pickup equipment associated with each station that originates programs.
The Sixth Five Year Plan does not specify the number of such trans-
mitters to be in use during the Plan period, but it points up the desira-
bility of their introduction "as soon as possible." 17/
D. Television Reception Base.
The planned expansion in television broadcasting stations
in the USSR is to be accompanied by a corresponding expansion in the
television reception base. The total number of receivers will be
increased from 800,000 at the end of 1955 to over 8 million by the end
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of 1960 to serve an audience of 25 million to 30 million viewers. This
audience averages less than four viewers per receiver, which appears
low in relation to family composition and living conditions in the USSR.
The nature of the economy of the USSR, however, and its income distri-
bution pattern may explain this low average.
IV. Aural Broadcasting.
The aural broadcasting service will be expanded to reach
virtually the entire population of the USSR by 1960. According to a
Soviet announcement, this is to be accomplished by expansion of the
transmission base, in terms of total power, by an increase of 90 percent.
The precise meaning of "increase in total power" is obscure. It
probably includes the power of new transmitters and increases in the
power of existing transmitters of all types of broadcasting stations,
including the relay centers of the wire-diffusion network.
FM broadcasting is to be employed in the densely populated
areas of the European USSR, especially near the western border. FM
stations are now in operation in Moscow, Leningrad, Riga, Kiev, and
Kharkov. A minimum of 63 FM stations is planned to be operational
by the end of 1960. 18/
Amplitude modulation (AM) broadcasting facilities are to be
expanded primarily in-the Far East,?Central Asia, and the North -- areas
of relatively low population density which require transmission facil-
ities suitable to extensive geographical coverage.
The number of relay centers of the wire-diffusion system is to
be doubled, from 30,000 in 1955 to about 60,000 by the end of 1960. 19/
B. Reception Base.
The reception base for aural broadcasting in the USSR is to be
increased from 25 million units (6 million independent receivers and 19
million wired loudspeakers) to 67 million units (32 million independent
receivers and 35 million wired loudspeakers). 20/ The addition of
about 25 million broadcast (AM or FM) receivers will, it is estimated,
mainly comprise AM receivers, including many new designs provided with
shortwave bands.
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There are very few FM radio receivers in operation in the USSR,
and most of these are incorporated in television receivers. The task
of development and production of these receivers is included in the
Sixth Five Year Plan. Converters to permit FM reception with existing
AM receivers are also under development. 21/
The estimated annual growth of television and aural broadcasting
reception facilities in the USSR in 1955-60 is shown in the accompanying
chart (Figure 3*).
The increase in aural reception facilities represents about
22 times the number in service at the close of 1955. This will
average 1 reception unit to approximately every 3 persons in the USSR.
V. Telegraph Service.
Telegraph service in the USSR is far more-extensive both in terms
of geographic coverage and volume of traffic than long-distance tele-
phone service. There has been considerable improvement in speed and
quality of service! through modernization of equipment and improvement
in qualifications of operating personnel during the post-World War II
period. Notwithstanding these improvements, the system in general
is not up to the level of modern technical developments in other parts
of the world. 22/ In,1955, about 60 percent of the telegraph equip-
ment consisted of outmoded, relatively inefficient Baudot and Morse
equipment.- 23/
The Sixth Five Year Plan goals to increase capacity and speed of
service through automation and mechanization of operations appear to
hinge on the successful development and production of modern high-speed
multichannel terminal equipment and teletype equipment. As an interim
measure, existing equipment is to be modernized as far as practicable. 21+/
In addition, many small, time-consuming manual operations such as stamp
ing, sorting, and packaging telegraph blanks will be mechanized. 25/
The planned increase in subscriber telegraph service by four times
also appears to depend on the development and production of a small sub-
scriber telegraph exchange with a capacity of 10 to 20 lines and upon
provision for automatic connection to a subscriber telegraph net. 26/
Following p. 10.
Morse is manual or machine telegraph equipment involving the origi-
nal telegraph code. Baudot is machine telegraph equipment involving
group signals.
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In general, the Plan calls for increasing the amount of photo-
telegraphic apparatus by five times. No information is available on
the quantities of apparatus which will be produced and/or placed into
operation during this Plan period or on the increase in traffic
expected to be derived. By admission of Soviet officials, "the
most appalling backwardness in telegraph apparatus is observed in
the field of phototelegraphy." 27/ Although considerable work was
done on development of phototelegraph apparatusiduring the Fifth
Five Year Plan, further efforts are called for in the Sixth Five Year
Plan to complete the development of equipment suitable for wide-scale
use. Work on the development of electron-ray types of high-speed
apparatus and small-sized apparatus with open recording will be
stressed. Development of apparatus for automatic relaying of' photo-
telegrams also must be completed. 28/
VI. Telephone Service.
A. Intercity (Long-Distance) Service.
The increase in aggregate length of intercity telephone channels
in the USSR by almost 22 times compared with 1955 probably takes into
account newly constructed routes and increased channel capacity on
existing routes. The total length of telephone channels in the USSR
is not known. Nevertheless, an over-all increase of 22 times represents
a marked buildup in facilities.
The map (Figure 1*) shows that the microwave relay lines announced
under the Plan end with a concentration in the Central Asian republics.
Any use of microwave relay facilities farther east will probably, in
the early stages, consist of links of low capacity integrated with
wire lines and employed over terrain where construction and maintenance
of wire lines are impracticable. It is probable that the announced in-
crease in telephone channel capacity to the Far East by more than seven
times will result from installation of new wire-line routes and the use
of carrier equipment on open wire to increase capacities of both new
and existing routes.
B. City Service.
The estimated capacity and degree of automatic service of the
urban telephone systems in the USSR in 1955 and the planned increase in
this capacity by 1960 are shown in Table 1. **
Following P. 4, above.
Table 1 follows on p. 11.
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S -E -C -R -E -T
Table 1
Estimated Capacity and Planned Increase in Capacity
of Urban Telephone Systems in the USSR
1955 and 1960
Increase
Telephone Numbers Available
1960 over 1955
Type of Exchange
(Thousands)
(Percent)
1960
Automatic
goo
1,500
67 a/
Manual
g00
1,000
11
1,800
2,500
39
a. Some Plan announcements have stated that a 90-percent in-
crease in urban automatic telephone exchange capacity is
planned in 1956-60. Derived absolute data indicate that this
90-percent figure may be in error and that the 67-percent in-
crease shown in this table represents the best estimate of
the probable increase in urban automatic telephone exchange
capacity during the Sixth Five Year Plan.
During the Fifth Five Year Plan, total urban telephone capacity
was increased by 35 percent and automatic telephone exchange capacity
by about 58 percent. 29/ During the Sixth Five Year Plan, total
urban exchange capacity will increase by about 40 percent. 30/ It is
estimated that this increase will be reflected in an increase in auto-
matic exchange capacity of about 67 percent and an increase in manual
exchange capacity of about 11 percent. Thus the Sixth Five Year Plan
shows an increased rate of expansion over the Fifth. As the percentage
increases are applied to a larger base than the percentage increases
of the Fifth Five Year Plan, the absolute planned increase is sub-
stantially larger than that of the Fifth Five Year Plan. The expansion
in city telephone service does not appear to be out of line in relation
to the over-all planned growth of telecommunications services during
the Sixth Five Year Plan.
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The Sixth Five Year Plan calls for the installation of automatic
urban telephone exchanges in the telephone systems of
70
cities that
have manual exchanges at present. By the end of 1960
it
is planned
to have automatic exchanges operating in about 110 cities in the USSR,
compared with about 40 in 1955. 31/
C. Intrarayon Communications Service.
Intrarayon communications service on a wide scale is a
comparatively recent addition to the telecommunications network of
the USSR. From the sparse information available about this service,
it appears to be somewhat comparable to rural telephone service. Wire
lines are usually employed, but radio is employed in some cases. There
is insufficient information available to allow evaluation of the
announced increase of 33 percent in subscribers of general use.
A. Capital Investment.
The estimated capital investment for telecommunications
facilities in the USSR in 1956-60 is shown in Table 2 and will entail
a capital investment of approximately 8 billion rubles for the items
listed. This estimate is very tenuous, as many of the aims of the
Estimated Capital Investment for Telecommunications Facilities
in the USSR
1956-60
Million 1955 Rubles
Television
1,700
Radiobroadcastling and wire diffusion
3,000
Telephone
and telegraph
800
Microwave
radio relay
400
Wire line
and cable
400
Local communications
400
Allowance for other investments
1,000
Total
7,700
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Plan have been expressed in units not directly correlated with the
expansion of specific facilities. Furthermore, the character and
nature of the facilities are not readily determinable from
available information. Thus the estimates of specific investments
are arbitrary in many cases and are based on assumed levels of
quality of service which may or may not be met. It is estimated,
therefore, that the margin of error of the figure of 8 billion rubles
is at least plus or minus 25 percent.
There are two primary sources of funds for capital invest-
ment by the Ministry of Communications in the USSR -- funds allocated
from the All-Union budget for capital investment purposes and funds
accumulated at the local level from profits of enterprises, amorti-
zation deductions, and other local sources. It is probable that the
capital investment requirements estimated to be necessary to achieve
the planned goals for expansion of the telecommunications system of
the USSR under the Sixth Five Year Plan can be met.
B. Consumer Expenditures.
The planned expansion in reception facilities for radio and
television broadcasting under the Sixth Five Year Plan will cost
Soviet consumers an estimated 35 billion rubles. This will be
composed of outlays estimated at 20 billion rubles for the purchase
of radio and television receivers and 15 billion rubles in addition
for license or rental fees for radiobroadcast and television receivers
and wired loudspeakers. The estimated consumer expenditures for
telecommunications in the USSR in 1956-60 are shown in Table 3.*
VIII. Status of Telecommunications in 1960.
Publicity attendant upon the announcements of telecommunications
goals in the Sixth Five Year Plan and on Radio Day, 1956, heavily
stressed research and development and the u.e of mass-production
methods to manufacture equipment necessary to achieve the goals. Time
periods normally required for development, production, distribution,
and installation of complex telecommunications equipment are usually
measured in terms of years rather than months. Soviet announcements
that equipment to be placed into operation during the current Five
Year Plan is yet in process of development and/or production suggest
that during the earlier years of the Sixth Five Year Plan there will
be little evidence that goals are being achieved except in the broad-
cast service.
Table 3 follows on p. 14.
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Estimated Consumer Expenditures for Telecommunications
in the USSR a/
1956-60
Billion 1955 Rubles
Purchases
Television receivers
12.2
Radiobroadcast receivers
7.7
Licenses and rental fees
Television receivers
2.7
Radiobroadcast receivers
3.6
Wired loudspeakers
9.222
35 .J+
a. These expenditures do not include consumer outlays
for telephone and telegraph services.
It is probable that the basic installation of the microwave
radio relay lines -- initially to be used for the relay of
television programs and a relatively small number of telephone
and/or derived telegraph channels -- will have been engineered so
as to permit much higher capacity usage later as equipment for tele-
phone, telegraph, and facsimile services becomes available. The
early, widespread introduction of television will serve the dual
purpose of satisfying a public desire for this modern medium of enter-
tainment and increasing the propaganda and educational tools of the
Soviet regime.
If the USSR achieves these goals, the status of its telecommuni-
cations system will be somewhat as follows at the end of 1960:
1. In terms of coverage, capacity, and physical-technical
security, the USSR will have considerably improved its basic
telecommunications trunkline resources in the European USSR and in
the Central Asian republics.
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2. The USSR will have provided a substantial transmission
and reception base for television, which is generally conceded to be
the most effective medium of mass communication.
3. The USSR will have completed aural broadcast service
coverage of the entire country.
4. The USSR will have improved the diversity (in terms of kinds
of media) and the capacity of its major trunk lines.
5. The USSR will have made some progress in automation of
telecommunications services, thus improving speed and quality of
service and reducing labor costs per unit of service.
6. To the above extent, the USSR will have improved the telecom-
munications support for its armed forces, air defense, and civil defense,
because these priority users of communications facilities probably ob-
tain a first share of new facilities and also can appropriate facilities
used for civilian purposes.
7. The USSR will have further reduced dependence upon long-dis-
tance, point-to-point, interceptable, and jammable radio west of the
Urals and possibly to a lesser extent east of the Urals along the
Trans-Siberian Railroad. It will, however, continue to depend heavily
upon long-distance, point-to-point, interceptable radio east of the
Urals and north of the Trans-Siberian Railroad, where wire lines, cable,
and microwave radio relay lines are sparse or nonexistent.
8. To the extent that wire-line, cable, and microwave radio
facilities will be able to handle the bona fide traffic which was
previously handled by long-distance, point-to-point radio facilities,
these unused facilities in standby status will reduce Soviet vulner-
ability to communications disruptions growing out of natural catas-
trophes, sabotage, and war and/or be available for jamming purposes
with lessened risk of self-jamming.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX
SOURCE REFERENCES
The most useful type of source in the preparation of this memorandum
consisted of official Soviet announcements as reported in the FBIS
Daily Reports andFDD Summaries. The following list of source refer-
ences provides detailed documentation for all estimates and judgments
contained in this memorandum with the exception of the estimates in
Tables 1, 2, and 3, which were derived by weighing and evaluating a
large number of separate pieces of raw intelligence. The methodology
and documentation for specific items are available in the appropriate
branch of ORR. The map, Figure 1, is based upon a map prepared by
the Signal Corps Intelligence Agency, US Army. Signal Corps data
apply to lines in use through 1953.
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.,".have the following significance:
Doc. - Documentary
A - Completely reliable
B - Usually reliable
C - Fairly reliable
D - Not usually reliable
E Not reliable
F - Cannot be judged
1 - Confirmed by other sources
2 - Probably true
3 - Possibly true
4 - Doubtful
5 - Probably false
6 - Cannot be judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff
officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff officer,
all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the
cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this memorandum.
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No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation
on the cited document.
FOIAb3bl
Ibid., 26 Apr 56, p. CC 2. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
Ibid., 8 May 56, p. CC 5. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
2. CIA. FDD Translation no 566, 29 Jun 56, The National Economy of
FOIAb3b1 3-
FOIAb3bl 4.
the USSR. -P. 190. OFF USE. Eval. Doe.
CIA. FDD Summary no 895, 19 Apr 56, Transportation, Communications,
Electric Power and Construction in the USSR 21 . OFF USE.
Eval. RR 2.
5. CIA. FDD Summary no 895 (3, above), p. 56-67. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
FOIAb3b16.
7. CIA. FDD Summary no 895 (3, above), p. 56-56. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
CIA. CIA/RR CSM 384, Hungarians Begin Research on High Capacity
Carrier Telephone E uipment, 31 May 5b. S.
Army, Budapest. R-26-56, Jan 56. C. Eval. RR 2.
Air, 7050 AISW USAFE. IR-495-56, 7 Feb 56, D 419650. S. Eval. RR 2.
8. USIA, London. Dsp 225, 13 Jun 56. C. Eval. RR 2.
FOIAb3bl 9.
10. CIA. FDD Summary no 794, 18 Jan 56, Transportation Communications,
Electric Power and Construction in the USSR k1 b), p. 56. OFF USE.
Eval. RR 2.
Air. Treasure Island 168659, 5 Jun 55. U. Eval. RR 2.
"What's on TV Tonight in Soviet Russia," New York Times, 10 Jun 56.
U. Eval. RR 2.
USIA. IS-28-56, 30 Mar 56, Overseas TV Developments, Quarterly
Report, p. 35. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
USIA. IS-58-56, 15 Jun. 56, Overseas TV Developments, Quarterly
Report, p. 35. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
CIA. FDD Summary no 864, 21 Mar 56, Transportation, Communications,
Electric Power and Construction in the USSR 20)per. OFF
USE. Eval. RR 2.
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CIA. FDD Summary no 970, 26 Jun 56, Transportation Communications,
Electric Power and Construction in -the USSR (23), p. 103-107.
OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
CIA. FDD Summary no 998, 18 Jul 56, Transportation Communications,
Electric Power and Construction in the USSR 2 , p . 51- 7.
OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
CIA. FDD Summary no 1040, 24 Aug 56, Transportation, Communications,
Electric Power and Construction in the USSR (25), p. 134-137.
OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
11. CIA. FDD Summiary no 1040 (10, above).
12. FQIM3t;-58-.56, 15 Jun 56 (10, above), p. 36. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
CIA. FDD Summary no 998 (10, above), p. 63. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
13. Air, 7050 AISW USAFE. IR-1254-56, 20 Apr 56. C. Eval. RR 2.
Radio, no 2, Feb 56. U. Eval. RR 2.
F ;36o 6, Jun 56 . U. Eval. RR 2.
"What's on TV Tonight in Soviet Russia," New York Times, 10 Jun 56.
U. Eval. RR 2.
USIA. IS-58-56, 15 Jun 56 (10, above).
CIA. FDD Summary no 970 10, above).
CIA. FDD Summary no 998 (10, above).
CIA. FDD Summary no 1040 (10, above), p. 115, 134-137. OFF USE.
Eval. RR 2.
14. Radio, no 6, Jun 56. U. Eval. RR 2.
'What's on 'I'V Tonight in Soviet Russia," New York Times, 10 Jun 56.
U. Eval. RR 2.
USIA. IS-28-56, 30 Max 56 (10, above).
CIA. FDD Summary no 936, 23 May 56, Transportation Communications,
Electric Power and Construction in the USSR 22 , p. 60-74.
OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
CIA. FDD Summary no 970 (10, above).
CIA. FDD Summary no 998 (10, above).
CIA. FDD Summary no 1040 (10, above).
15. CIA. FDD Summary no 895 3, above), p. 57. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
16. CIA. FDD Summary no 970 (10, above), p. 103.
17. FJ,li .bib
18.
CIA. FDD Summary no 895 (3, above), p. 58. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
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CIA. FDD Summary no 101,-0 (10, above), p. 119. OFF USE.
Eval. RR 2.
CIA. FDD Summary no 998 (10, above), p. 56.
19. CIA. FDD Summary no 617, 15 Aug 55, Transportation, Communications,
Electric Power and Construction in the USSR k13), p. 19.
OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
20. CIA. FDD Summary no 1040 (10, above), p. 118. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
Joint Committee on Slavic Studies. Current Digest of the Soviet
Press; vol 3, no 19, 20 Jun 56, p. 35. U. Eval. RR 2.
21. CIA. FDD Summary no 10110 (10, above).
22. CIA. FDD Summary no 795, 19 Jan 56, Scientific News Items (23),
p. 21. C.Eval.RR2.
23. Q0-M-1231, 18 Sep 56, p. 2. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
24. Summary no 895 (3, above
CIA. FDD Summary no 970 10, above), p. 100. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
25.. 2 1A D Summary no 970 (10, above).
26
.
27.
CIA.
FDD Summary no 795
22,
above .
28.
CIA.
FDD Summary no 895
3,
above),
p. 58. OFF USE.
Eval. RR 2.
FOIAb3b39'
o.
r no 998
10
above
58.
Ibid.,
26 Apr 56, p. CC 2. OFF USE.
Eval. RR 2.
Ibid.,
8 May 56, p. CC 5. OFF USE.
Eval. RR 2.
31.
CIA.
FDD Summary no 998 (10, above).
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