QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1956

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CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4
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RIPPUB
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S
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19
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November 9, 2016
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August 21, 1998
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2
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Publication Date: 
January 21, 1957
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IM
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Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1956 CIA/RR IM-446 21 January 1957 WARNING THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS. 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports S-E-C- Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP7 T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 S-E-C-R-E-T FOREWORD This memorandum is the seventh in a series to be issued on a quar- terly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. The estimates presented are issued to satisfy the requests of consumers for the most recent estimates of production of aircraft in the Bloc and are intended to supersede those contained in previous ORE publications. Changes in the present estimates from past estimates are the results of (1) a re-evaluation of the amount of floorspace utilized by individ- ual workers, (2) revisions of specific airframe weights, and (3) more recent intelligence information. No interagency coordination has been attempted, and no dissemination of this memorandum outside of CIA is planned. -iii- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 CONTENTS Page 1. Trends in Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . ? 1 2. Production in the USSR . . . . ? . 2 3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist China . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tables 1. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by I'TLUilber, 19511- Through 1955 . . . ? . . . . . . . . . . 11. 2. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Wei ,h t, 19544 lnrouh 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3. Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft in the USS'i, Yhrough 1956 6 4? Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Number, 1951 Throw-h 1956. . . ? . ? . . . ? . . . . . . . . 7 5. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Weight, 8 19511? ThrouL;h 1950' . . . . . . . . . . ? . . ? . . ? . . . 8 6. US 1ilitary Aircraft Acceptances, by Number, 195+ Through 1956 9 7. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight, 1951 Through 1956 10 8. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites and in CoLmiuzist China, by Number, 1954 Through 1956 . . 11 9. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites and in Coz a;nua.ist China, by Weight, 1951+ Through 1956 . . 12 v S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Charts Follovino Page Figure 1. US and USSR: Production of Military Aircraft,, by Number, 195+ Through 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '12 Figure 2. US and USSR: Production of Military Aircraft, by Weight., 1954 Through 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -vi - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 O O\ r-q (fl O N'O ~. U-\ H 8 0 0 \OMO N O N OON \Q?a1r OO~O. O~ -O\DCQ pp 0 L- g ~ 0 00 0 , ~ 1 0 110 ?N 811 UI\ N~ ~Lr\ ? 8]I C\j a' 4 H u0 808 L 01N 8 ? N 1 O 8 Q C ('D 00 . Lf\ , 8 9 CY\ r-l 800000 M ?-1r Lr\ N H 8 Nr1? 8l \O ? 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NON I COQ 8 8 ) H H H r0i\Cr-1\~N~ r-1 `DiN (nLr\ 80N1% i8 CD %10 cli 0 r -I \O~ ON L O O cl- p \D -* O\ O Lit H _ \O Mco O H N H -z' 0 L1 ri L--\J C\ r1 M Lm H \U O ro\ N 0 ~rq H r H cO r-1 Ln C\ co t- \O N L- \.0 ~`O~~ cO --J- ~ u\ 2O LHr\ O\O N w n n L- I H m H H U JJI 0 [8 CJ -8 ~ .}~ N E-i d CJ QQN -1 t 9 0 H 4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 I O 6 898 ?88 Lr\ O 9 8 8 CV 00 N rl N X88 8 m8 -8 \~ crl -1 ' O N O 6\ r-I N 888 8 8 88 C^ N CV \O co -C O\ 8 888 8 8 c O~~ 88: 8 1~ 9, P1 l- N t+'1 W -t 8 8 8 X88 C) C, 0 CO N N C\ W V' c 03 IC; u w 41 2 4S CU -H Ip It 1'H A Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 r{ 6 O -Ir-1 H N 9 r ~N _:t 0 NCO I'D \,ON 1-1 N S \T ^ J co Nm NCO 0 0O i c~ r- ~a co o H ro ri -i t 1 h Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Table 3 Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft in the USSR a,/ Through 1956 D 2e O? Aircraft Production to 1 January 1957 Badger Jet rnediuxn bomber 840 ;eagle jet light borSber 6,500 Bear Turboprop heavy bomber 74 Bison Jet heavy bomber 48 Cancel Jet transport i 35 Farmer Jet fighter 1, 400 Flashlight Jet all-weather interceptor 1,100 Fresco Jet fighter 9,800 Horse Helicopter 47 Hound Helicopter 500 New fighter Jet fighter 150 a. Figures are rounded to two si-nificant dia'i_ts. -6- S-E-C-i -E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 o'-o ~c CO H N Q) '" a) 'POI r-I A Lr\ OH O 0 ? ?? 8~ X88 ~ 8? %10 CI) H t-- X88 a 8? tf\ M \D 8~(~yy 8 ? Lr% (DIN IS r~ H N r-~ ro N N cu 0 w N M O O co co q H A H P 40 O aD M g m h ~a c7 99 8 98 m \D H 88 8~ ri Nw N ?o 88 0 co \O O Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 ~ I i o~ 88 8 C-O N 8 O G\N 08 O 8 N \.??m{N ~ oC', m 0 0\ 8 U8 0 I N O 8 N H 00 'DO 8 8 8 8~ my 8? ?8 ?-8 3 q Lf" N 2 1-1) C) 0 `^8 88 co CY) m r-z I-i N~ 8 ?8 g p O, 4 21 W +Q N +~ ?Ql ~ 40 aS W q cq +~ m - q +~ m H Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 25X1 B4d at Plant No. 18 in Kuybyshev. On the basis of this program of modi- fication, estimates of production at Plant No. 18 of the Bear, a heavy turboprop bomber, have been lowered. Since the publication of the last memorandum in this series, it has become apparent that a newly configurated Bison aircraft was put into production near the end of the third quarter of 1956 at Plant No. 23 in Moscow? The latest model, which represents the seventh configurational modification of this air- craft, has an elongated nose, and the horizontal stabilizer has no dihedral. Be innin ossibly as early as July 1956, a new type of air- craft was also observed. Ten aircraft of this new type of series are believed to have been produced from the end of July to December 1956. In December a third type of series appeared. At least three aircraft were produced in this third and latest series by the end of December 1956. As of late December 1956, at least 1.8 Bison had been produced at Plant No. 23. Further evaluation of information concerning Plant No. 30 in Moscow leads to the conclusion that this plant is engaged in the production of the Crate (Il-14). A previous opinion held that the plant was mod- ifying the Coach (I1-12) to the Crate. Production of a new jet fighter continues at Plant No. 168 in Rostov. Although information is still limited, this airplane is probably the Faceplate, one of the jet fighters shown for the first time at the Aviation Day Air Show of June 1956. It is believed that Plant No. 31 in Tiflis has begun production of a new type of jet fighter. Recent observations of the factory airfield and the plant vicinity disclose a greatly reduced number of new Fresco (111G-17) fighters in the area. 3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist China. In the fourth quarter of 1956 the European Satellites produced an estimated total of 314-0 aircraft, about 15 percent of total production of all aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Communist China is estimated to have produced 74+ aircraft, all piston-engine trainers, during the fourth quarter of 1956, representing about 3 percent of estimated total production by the Bloc.* Czechoslovakia and Poland remain the largest producers among the Satellites, accounting for about 59 percent and 21 percent, respectively, or a combined total of about 80 percent of Satellite production of aircraft by number. * Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellites and Com- munist China from 195+ through 1956 is given by number in Table 8, p. 11, below, and by airframe weight in Table 9, p. 12, below. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 2. Production in the USSR? The USSR continues to produce most of the aircraft manufactured in the Sino-Soviet Bloc.* Of the 2,300 aircraft estimated to have been produced by the Bloc in the. fourth quarter of 1956, 1,900 aircraft, about 83 percent, were produced in the USSR. In terms of airframe weight, about 94 percent of the estimated total production of aircraft in the Bloc took place in the USSR. This figure emphasizes again the fact that the Satellites produce relatively lighter aircraft. In 1956 the Soviet. share of estimated total production of aircraft by the Sino-Soviet Bloc decreased by about 3 percent in terms of numbers and showed no appreciable change in terms of airframe weight. For the second consecutive year the USSR produced about 88 percent of all the combat aircraft produced by the Sino-Soviet Bloc. It is estimated that total Soviet production of combat aircraft during the fourth quarter of 1956 exceeded that of the US by about 2 percent in terms of numbers and by about 8 percent in terms of air- frame weight. Recent intelligence information has resulted in several changes in previously published estimates of Soviet production of aircraft. Since the publication of the last memorandum in this series, infor- mation has become available which changes the estimate of activity at Plant No. 64 in Voronezh. It is now tentatively assumed that since 1955 this plant has been engaged in Badger (Tu-16) production rather than in a program of Badger modification. Recent information indi- cates that a program of Bull (Tu-4) modification has been in progress Estimated production of aircraft in the USSR from 1954 through 1956 is given by number in Table 4, p. 7, below, and by airframe weight in Table 5, p. 8, below. ** Production of combat aircraft in the USSR from 1954 through 1956 is compared with that in the US by number in Figure 1, follow- ing p. 12, and by airframe weight in Figure 2, following p. 12. For additional comparison, US military acceptances from 1954 through 1956 are given by number in Table 6, p. 9, below, and by airframe weight in Table 7, p. 10, below. CIA/RR IM-437, uarter Estimate of the Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc J -Se tember 1 25 October 1956. SECRET CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY. - 2 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 CIA/RR IM-446 S-E-C-R-E-T (ORR Project 33,1658) QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1956* 1. Trends in Production. In the fourth quarter of 1956, estimated production of aircraft by the Sino-Soviet Bloc remained about the same as in the previous quarter.** A slight increase was noted in production of transport aircraft in the USSR, and Soviet production of fighters also con- tinued to show an upward trend.Xxx Bloc production in terms of airframe weight registered an increase of about 3 percent above production in the previous quarter. The increase in airframe weight reflects the rising rates of production of Bear and Crate (ii-14) aircraft and the replacement of the Fresco (MCG-17) fighter by the heavier Farmer, by.the Flashlight, and by an unidentified new fighter. About 56 percent of the aircraft produced by the Bloc during the fourth quarter of 1956 are believed to have been combat types. Although total production of aircraft, by number, in the Sino- Soviet Bloc during 1956 eras about 2 percent less than in 1955, production in terms of airframe weight increased about 14 percent as a result of the trend toward greater weight in modern aircraft. Combat types of aircraft accounted for about 55 percent of total production of aircraft by the Sino-Soviet Bloc in 1956. The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum represent the best judgment of ORR as of 31 December 1956. Estimated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc from 1954 through 1956 is given by number in Table 1, p. 4, below, and by airframe weight in Table 2, p. 5, below. XXX Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet aircraft through 1956 is given in Table 3, p. 6, below. For the purposes of this memorandum, combat types include bomber, fighter, and ground attack aircraft. Other aircraft such as helicopters and transports have uses. under both combat and noncombat conditions. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 LL O 0 0 (0 o If) 1-0 w d) W a o -o v o, -To O O N ~ Ifl C a If) Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 ` Qt iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiillillr-~-" P N U)C d LO C 1~ o Ca a 0) o_ ? N C ti U C)- o v r ~ p O C -a V Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4 S-E-C-R-E-T CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4