THE ISRAELI-SYRIAN CRISIS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000100010043-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 2002
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: April 11, 1951
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2006/11/11: CIA-RDP79T00937AO00100010043-3
4 ~l JEL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESMUTES
11 April 1951
E RAND
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OF INF 7ATIWQ NO
L.">CUMENT NO.
5
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NCB CHANGE IN CLASS.
C)
National Estimates Boexd
CL DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
TS S C
SB $
The Israeli.Syriau Crisis
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE; F LREVIEWER:
It is uv1ila a:ly that the cu rjrent Hialeah incident involving az'ssed
clashes between Israel and Syria . will doerelap Into mNlor hostilities
between the two countries, although further isolated clashes along the
border will, probably occur before the tense situation is brought under
control. The incident, does, however, re? hasiae that fact that almost
no progress has been made in improving Israeli-Arab relations in the
two years since Israel eoreluded armistice agree ants with its four
Arab neighbors. 'Under the iaau=r'able pressure of a ra;spid],y expnndiug
population, Israel continues to adopt policies which, however progres-
sive and worthy in th.selves, have the effect of dispossessing large
groups of local Arabs. The latter inevitably turn for protection to
the neighboring Arab governments which, because of the pressures of
anti rZionimm flare compelled to comae to their .aid.
The Ruleh incident is not unique; similar clashes have occurred
repeatedly during the past two years, particularly in the yerusalenm,
Hebron, and Gat areas. It is of particular interest, hOwwever, not
only because it is more serious than. the others but because it epitomises
the entire Palestine problem. The fundm ie tall issues in this incident,
as well as the tactics employed by Israelis and Arabs, are almost identi-
ca]. to the issues and tactics of the Palestine War in 1948. F ui thea%-
more, the Security Council, to which the issue has already been referred
by both Israel and Syria, and the UN-directed Mixed Armisties Coosd.s-
sion (MAC) in the area are ones again confronted with the thankless
task of, in theory, mediating the issue and, in practice, perouadin
Syria to accept as gracefully as possible what in any event Israel is
determined to carry out -4? in this case, the reclamation project in the
demilitarized sons south of Lake Ruleh.
The present incident had its origin about two months ago when
Israel started work on a reclamation scheme in the area south of Lake
Huleh near the Syrian border. Although the area affected is in Israeli
territory, it is inhabited by Arabs. Furthermore, as it is a demilitarized
Approved For Release 2006/11/11: CIA-RDP79T00937A000100010043-3
 .Approved For Release 2006/11/11: CIA-RDP79T00937AO00100010043-3
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zone under the Israeli.Syrian Armistice and its ultimate disposition
is theoretically still in doubt, no unusual activity, is permitted therein
except by agreement between the two countries. The reclamation work was,
therefore, strongly opposed not only by the local Arabs, whose land it
immediately affected, but also by the Syrians, who asserted that Israel
was violating the Armistice agreement*
About a mmth ago local Arabs began sporadically to shoot from the
Syrian side of the border at the Israeli reclamation workers in the
Ihtleh area, The Israelis soon returned the fire with both rifles and
mortars and continued their work. In spite of the local tension, the
two governments appeared to be showing considerable restraint and it was
generally expected that the MAC would be able to bring the situation
under control, However, Israel refused to accede to the MAC request that
it tearaporari]y suspend work an the drainage scheme, and shortly thereafter
the situation was exacerbated by Israel's action in rounding up all the
local Arabs and removing them fry the area,
At this stage in d is Syria was at least morally
strong position? Israol had not only vi violated the Aamisti ! In a
ce agreement
but had also defied a specific injunction of the MAC? Howe
ver, Syria
undermined its own position by permitting Syrian Arabs to occur
Arab village of El Hemma within the Israeli demilitaz'ized cone? A the
groM
of Israelis armed with automatic weapons subsequently tried to occupy
El Hama and fired on both the Arabs in the village end
at a nearby border post within Syrian troops
territory, The Syrian troops
ops
eventually returned the fire, killed seven Israelis, wounded another,
and captured one.. The following day, eight Israeli aircraft bombed -and
strafed El I3amma and police and army posts in Syrian territory, Israeli
forces also completely destroyed two other Arab villages in the Israeli
demilitarized zone; the Arab inhabitants of the villages had in the
meantime fled to Syrian territory,
Israelis, Syrian, and even Jordan forces have been concentrated in
the areas and Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan have indicated they win wipport
Syria against further Israeli aggression, it is unl,ikerly, however
that Israel will be willing at this time to re-embark on fullecale war
with its neighbors. The most probable development is that Israel, will
agree temporarily to suspend its reclamation work and that an attemspt
will be made to mediate the Issue in the MAC. }Iowever-, unless Syria can
be persuaded to acquiesce in Israeles.reclamation plans, fut hostili-
ties are inevitable, for Israel will certainly refuse to abandon them.
If a compromise is reached, it will probably be an the basis of adequate
compensation to the local Arabs whose interests in the issue are the
ones most directly affected,
'2..
4WREW
Approved For Release 2006/11/11 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000100010043-3