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December 19, 2016
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December 1, 2006
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February 28, 1951
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Approved For Release 20061Q@{ J F USAF RENEW COMPLETED CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES ";USAF Declass/Release Instructions On File* MF3ANDt~! OF INF IATION Pit. .25 (L937A000100010072-1 W# #53218 28 : ek cry 1951 NO CHANGE tN CLASS. 0 DECLAS$WED SUB TECT I Soviet. Aviation Gasoline Situation CLASS. C 4A* GED TO: Ts $ `G,J NEXT REVWWDATE: gQ, RUTH: HR 7?2 DATE: FF-6 O RFVJEMvm. 1, To determine the adequacy of Soviet aviation gasoline supplies to support a global warp 2. If Soviet supplies are adequate, how *an we explain the fact that Soviet requirements are only a fraction of those of the United States Air Fares? ADEQUACY OF SOVIETVGA3 SUPPI 3. If the USSR were engaged in a global we' in 1951 there would be a stringency in the supply of aviation gasoline. This tight supply situation, however, would not prevent the USSR from carrying out its initial campaigns. As explained in de. tail in the discussion, Soviet minimum essential wartime Approved For Release 2006,Cy j p"bpTtld0937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 2006/1 200.NFlf f iTg2tL7A000100010072-1 requirements for high octane aviation gasoline in 1951 are esti.. mated to be 1,850,000 metric tons. Availabcility from production will be about 2,180,000. This means that some surplus exists above the minimum wartime requirements. A larger surplus is estimated in the lower octane ratings employed for training pur. poses. 4. The aviation gasoline stockpile is probably the equiva.. lent of at least several months requirements. 5. General refining facilities, as opposed to the specialized facilities for the production of high octane aviation gasoline,, are capable of producing ample supplies of jet fuel to meet the requirements of the number of jet planes (primarily fighters) available to the USSR in 1951. The process of conversion of the Soviet Air Forces to jets more than trebles the volume of fuel required per plane for each hour of flying time because of the greater fuel consumption of jets. In the future this would reduce the relative dependence on aviation gasoline, brrt would increase Soviet problems of transportation and storage. 6. Soviet aviation gasoline refineries are particularly vulnerable to strategic air attack and are within the target aye. tens selected by USAF intelligence. It is estimated that after 2. Approved For Release 2006/1 2/wNf-I f 47A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 2006/1 n FNTi37AOOOlOOOl0072-1 an A-bomb attack of the type suggested by the WHO none of the surviving refining facilities would be capable of producing 100 octane aviation gasoline and the refining facilities for all liquid fuels would be out to a scant 3.3 m1113on metric tons. This attack, however, would not reduce aviation gasoline supplies to the point of preventing the initial short campaigns now fare.. out for the Soviets, Air capabilities for a prolonged war would, of course, be severely reduced, SEARITY OF SOVIET ark aF ECUMIU= ?, Since the requirements of the US Air Force for high octane combat aviation gasoline are estimated to be appraadmately 4 to 5 times as great as those of the Soviet Air Forcese, it in obvious that the two air forces must be assumed "to fight two different kinds of tears," The main reasons for this disparity in requirements are as followst a, It is assumed that during 1951 Soviet forces could carry out certain of their assumed campaigns with little resistance; b. The campaigns visualized for the Soviet forces do not include strategic air operations as extensive as those contemplated for US Air Forces. The large scale use of medium and heavy bombers requires extremely large quantities of high octane aviation gasoline; e The disparity in Set fuel requirements is even greater, 30 Approved For Release 2006 f)tN F - IFT7 00937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 20061CONFIDENME 37AO00100010072-1 T T N% c. The Soviet Air Forces d o not awry nearly as much cargo nor as many personnel by air transport as do the USAF, d. The exterior lines of oammamioatios of the Soviet Air Forces will not be as long as those of the USAF. Moreover, their bases of operations will be closer to the points of air activity; and e. The Soviet Air Forces do not carry out training pro. grams as extensive as those of the UAF0 DISCUSSION VAILABILS~TY_Q ?' A VIAT121 In 1951, the total production of high octane aviation gasoline (grades 100/130, 95/130 and 95/115) for the Soviet bloc is estimated to be about 2,180,000 metric tons.* All of this eaooept 110,000 metric tons will be the USSRQ In addition, about 1,750,000 metric tons of 85 to 91 octane (suitable for training purposes) can be produc.d.. The actual size of the aviation gasoline stockpile is not known, although * All of t h e f i g u r e s in this memorandum are the preliminary esti.. mates of GRit CIA, Requirement figures were derived from USAF data, Although the research office in A-2 has t?f rm 1 i n sac- pressed some disagreement on particular figures, it i agrees with the general conclusions, 40 Approved For Release 2006 N-.F DMTj-b }937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 2006,-GGK. DRS' iJALe37A000100010072-1 it is relatively aertain that stockpiles of aviation fuel and critical components such as alkylate and iso-oatane exist in quantities equivalent, at least, to several months requirements. 90 General ieflning facilities, as opposed to the apeaialiaed ibo lines for high octane aviation gasoline, are sufficiently flexible to produce a large vole of Set fuel. Approodmately 40 percent of a barrel of crude oil* can be con- verted to jet fuel, From a practical viewpoint there can be no shortage of jet fuel tmless there is a general shortage of re- fined products. In the event of a shortage of refined products, however, it is possible that jet fuel would be given the nooss- eery priority over motor gaso].3ue and other fractions. There will be ample jet fuel to supply the rents of the number of Set planes (primarily fighters) estimated for 1951. 10, A situation similar to that for jet fuels exists in the ease of low octane. aviation gasoline in that a large volume can be produced by general refining facil hies. Aviation fuels ranging e from 75 to 85 octane may be substantially the stone as good quality motor gasoline, possibly with closer specifications on such items as distillation and vapor pressure. Total crude oil production for the Soviet bloc in 1951 will probably be about 49 mi111on metric torso 50 Approved For Release 2006e 1 FjI-RN' b 0937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 2006iL)M FD T~ 1 937A000100010072-1 TABLE I (thousands of metric tons) 100/130 600 95 Total High octane ""gam 20180 85 to 91 Tote) 85 and above 30930 11, The estimates of aviation fuel requirements given be. low are based on the courses of Soviet military notion visualized The composition of the Soviet Air Forces for these campoi,-xsv including Set aircraft, were estimated ter the USAF, The fuel requirements are direetlg related to the types of aircraft, fuel oonat uption rates, and the duration and frequency of missions. In addition, these estimates of fuel oon. gumption are based on the experience of the USAF and their analyses of the characteristics of Soviet aircraft, Aftor aotputing fuel requirements, 10 percent was added to cover logistic losses, 60, Approved For Release 20 lb00937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 2006 :1?-Ei*T 2MOW2 1001130 95/115 Belau 95 MC TABLE II SO _ ,ors 4 ra 195,1 (thousands of metric tons) im, 36C1 691 Total High octane Awl 1,850 Total Aviation Gasoline * Wer beginning the last pert of the previous ya, 1,870 From a theoretical viewpoint the highest quality fuel is de.? sired for all combat aircraft operations, am a practical viewpoint, however, there must be a compromise between quality and quantity, It is. considered reasonable that Soviet medium and large bambera require the rm)dmn lean and rich ratings, or the USSR grade 100430, The fighters and light bombers may tolerate a sacrifice on lean ratings but probably not on rich rating. Such a fuel is represented by the USSR grade 95430. The attack, transport, and some advanced training aircraft t could tolerate the sacmrifice, in both lean and rich ratings of the USSR grade 95/115. The remaining, training aircraft give adequate operation on.grades below 95 octane. .SRI 0APABILITIFS 12, A coanparisaai of the aviation gasoline availability and the aviation gasoline requirements in Table III ibelow reveals that the supply will be sufficient for the oampaLgns listed in 7, Approved For Release 2006/ '# Y C 7TD f A4937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 2006/ TABLE III ~,. Au 37AO00100010072-1 SO=~RE~ITT,~.,TT AA'i~L7r1 'f~t WAR THR,~ U(II JT 19 (thousands of metric tone) Availab From Mont ility Military Require- Mont 195/1 0 40 0 0 00 3 64 100 95/15 95 Total High Octane 2,18 .,.. 0 1,850 330 85 to 95 Octane 1,075 _ - 1 ,730 Total Avgas 3,93 0 1,870 2 ,060 * Avmilable for reserves or civilian use as a cushion against war damage, or for support of arses outside the present Orbit TherrLe,.will be an unknown additional amount available from st. 13. Table III indicates that although theme trill, be a definite stringency in aviation gasoline suppliers, there will be no aviation gasoline shortage sufficiently ecritic>ae l to p vevent 25X1 the fo1101dng campaigns listed a. S ateneousl y (1) A gn against Western DaVpe, iuoluding (2) An aerial bombs rd1oment against the British Islas'* (3) Campaigns against the Now and Middle Esat, In- ol udf ng G reeoe and Turkega 8, am For Release 20QI PAL0937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 2006/`1 f0''I^:FcIDEN)T4Ak937A000100010072-1 (4) Campaigns in the Far But, (8) Air attacks against the US mod Oanuk. Attacks against Alaska and the Aleutians, Air offensive against Angloi.Aneioan sea o ni1oat~ one. Defense of the Soviet Union agsinst hostile attack, be As soon as possible after the ooc+upa'~.icn of the Tchannel port areas, a faill scale air offensive :against the British Isles. 0. As soon as feasible campaigns against 3a~ndinavia and the Iberian Peninsula,. d, As necessary, air attacks against Pakistan, Vw I ux F THE LIQU D FUELS INDUSTRY TO SiBA= Ar l1K An analysis by USAF intelligenoe* of the vulnerability of the USSR to strategic air attack on the liquid fuels indus r revealed the followings a, The essentiality of a substantial voiteme of liquid fuel, the comparatively abort production epipe lino," the limita- tions on storm, the aomparatively high degree of oonaentration, * Al Study Noe 21x5, *T, ar-gn& Svateans Submitted Aj r_r, 21nsi4 aUM tc the 3trate e r Offensive in Sunt - ; of- the O " t3ves_ A the Joint game- qy ar Pisa Flaenl 90 cQIffJDENT1AL Approved For Release 2006/12/01: CIA-R?P79T00937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 20060 '1 ?Ao937Aoooloool0072-1 v ~ the the physical vulnerability of refining faoilitiea, and the long period of time required for reconstruction, all would make the Soviet war eoonoW particularly susceptible to strategic air attack on petroleum refineries, b. Ninety atom bombs (60 for the initial attack and 30 for re-attacks) delivered within 90 days with a CEP (Circular Probable Omar) of 3000 feet, may be expected to leave & .liquid fuels production capacity of not more than,, and probably consider- ably less than 3.3 million metric, two per year which would be located in widely scattered small refineries, a large part of the products of which could not be effectively used by the Soviet armed farces. None of the surviving refining facilities would be capable of producing 100 octane avgas, co The reduction in the available supplies woyuld, for some time, result in a decreasing rate of use of liquid fuel con- suming machines rather than any sudden stoppage of their operation. Planes would fly only the most vital missions and twining activi- ties would probably be suspended. No immediate effect is to be expected on operations involving the Soviet TII?, type bomber for possible use in an atamio bomb attack against the US and allies, However, use of this bomber would probably be eta'tailed by a lack of 100 octane fuel in from 6 to 18 months. Operations involving tanks and motor vehicles would be severely curtailed, The move. manta of naval vessels and freighters would be selectively 10, Approved For Release 20061 2QN EL-T Mf937A000100010072-1 Approved For Release 2006/ T TAg937A000100010072-1 curtailed, However, because of the time required to ooanplete the initial attack on petroleum installations (90 days), and the relatively short time needed to complete sme of the campaigns envisaged (for emmuple, it is estimated that the channel ports f5ro n Antwerp to Brest oauld be occupied between D + 30 and D + 60 days and the Pyrenees reached by D f 65 to D + 75 days), it is unlikely that the initial short campaigns now forecast for the Soviets would be significantly affected by any shortage of petroleasa products, 15. It is estimated that U requirements for high octane aviation gasoline for the first year of a war in 1951-52 would be roughly nine mLlliosx tows, This is approximately 4 to 5 times as great as those of the Soviet Air Foroee0 The &Lsparity In Jet fuel requirements would be even greater, It is obvious that the two air forces mast be assumed to fight two different kinds of .wars,"* The main reasons for this disparity in requirements are as follows s a. It is assumed that during 1951 Soviet forces could carry out certain of their asswed campaigns with little resist. anoel bo The campaigns visualized for the Soviet forces do MOM Approved For Release 200610 I Approved For Release 2006 FAg0937A000100010072-1 iw~ not include strategic air operations as extensive as those ca - teaapiated for US Air Foram. The large scale use of medium and heavy bombers requires extremely large quantities of high octane aviation gasoline; a, The Soviet Air Forces do not carry nearly as much cargo nor as many personnel by air transport as do the ASAP, d. The exterior lines of canmamiaation of the Soviet Air Forams will not be as long as those of tie USAF, t eover, their bases of operations will be closer to the points of air activity; and ea The Soviet Air Forces do not carry, out training poo grama as extensive as those of the USAF. Evan though the factors affecting the aviation gasoline posi- tion of the allies, Germanys and Japan in 11or2d War II are different from those which would affect the 1YSSR in a war in 1951, the following information relating to aviation gasoline in world War II is of related interest. Fn a -IAN O AVD- 99 am JAPA1Th E J SnUATISH (thousands of metric tons) Stocks on Hand On Outbreak of Consumption Consumption Hostilities Durixi 19 Dln'in 19 /AA Allies 12,000 22,000 Japan 500 aann 42)) 1 600 1 30000 $ The allies figures are rounded to the nearest udllion. The others are rounded to the near. eat 100,000. l2, Approved For Release 2006, L) N k937A000100010072-1