PROGRAM OF ESTIMATES THROUGH 1953

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 15, 2000
• Sequence Number: 25
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3,
DRAFT M lORANDUM FOR THE IAC
SUBJEOT t Program of Estimates through 1953
RE ERENCEz Memorandum for the ThG, dated 5 May 1952
1o Initiation of the following estimates is considered to be
of the highest importance during this period:
AO
Probable Soviet.Strateg[ through 1963.- This would
be designed not to estimate precise Soviet courses
of action,, but to (1) examine the courses of action
open to the Kremlin, and (2) estimate the general
strategy It would be likely to adopt, in view not
only of its own capabilities, but also of probable
developments outside the Soviet blood Target date
for submission of contributions i 1 December 19530
ba Future Orientation of West Germany: This estimate
should examine the various long-range economic,
political and psychological factors ?- internal
and externs. m- which will affect West Germanyls
future courses Target date for submission of
contributions: 15 January 1953,
Approved For Release 2000/05/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
 . Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3 1,0
as Prospects for the Develop ent of Strength and
Stabilit In Western Europe; This estimate would
attempt to determine the extent to which Western
Europe can develop and maintain political, sconomic,i
and military strength with or without large-scale
US aide Target date for submission of contributions:
I March 19530
3o The following subjects., previously estimate, should be
re-examined during this period on a high priority:
ae Soviet Bloc Capabilities and Probable Courses of
Action (through mid-l!.1.955) s Unlike NIE-25 and NIE - 6L ,
new periodic examinations of this subject should be
based upon a two-year projection., ioe.. through
the fiscal year (1955) for which specific budgetary
plans will be made during the last half of 1.953.
In order to facilitate the coordination process.,
the Board plans to publish in the formal estimate
a relatively brief summary of capabilities, and to
attach as separate appendices staff studies on
economic, political, military and scientific
factors. These staff studies would be prepared
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-a,,
and coordinated at the staff level over a period of
several months and bear the date of their approval
by the boards rather than the date of the final
paperb Target date for completion of the entire
project would be 1 September 19539 with the various
segments scheduled over the several months preceding.
b0 East Germany. The presdnt estimate expires at the
end of 19520 A new examination is requiz~ed as a
basis for understanding Soviet policy toward West
Germany. Target date for submission of contribu-
tions: 1 January 1953,
co Eastern European Satellites: The present estimate
expired in mid-1953b A new review of Satellite
potential and of the developing nature of Soviet-
Satellite relations is a continuing need, This
paper should also include a detailed examination
of the collectivization program in the Satellites.
Target date for submission of contributions:
1 April 19530
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-;
do Korea-. The present estimate expires in mid?19 30
Korea will continue to be an area of tensions, what-
ever developments occur in the war or the armistice
talks, Target date for submission of contributions:
1 may 19530
e0 Indochina; The present estimate expires in mid-1953,,
and the situation will almost certainly require a
new estimate, Target date for submission of con-
tributiona: 1 April 19530
f 0 : A new estimate is needed to take note of the
developing nature of the new regime and of its impact
upon outstanding problems in the Middle East includ-
ing the question of Middle Eastern defense. Target
date for submission of contributions: 15 December
19520 4
g0 India: The present Indian estimates, completed in
1951, has become obsolete? and a new examination of
Indiae8 economic and political problems is required,
Target date for submission of contributions :
15 February 1953.
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
Japan: An estimate of the prospects for Japanese
rearmament, with particular reference to the effect
of Japans economic problems upon her willingness
and ability to rearm,, will probably be required0
Target date for submission of contributions:
1 March 1953,
Z, Collection and research efforts, looking toward the formal
initiation of national estimates, should be undertaken immediately
in the following areas of study and pursued with the highest
priority:
at, Communist China; Estimates written during 1951 and
1952 have been hampered by a lack of solid, recent
data on the political,, economic,, and military
situation in China* Pursuant to the post-mortem
on SE-27, steps toward the improvement of economic
intelligence on Communist China have already been
taken, Further rationalization of the requirements
for satisfactory estimates is required, especially
in the political and military fields, The research
requirements will be prepared in O/NE at an early
date and referred to the appropriate agencies so
that the necessary collection efforts can be under-
taken.
45-
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3,,,O
4 The Soviet Economy: Adequate national intelligence
effort has not yet been given to such problems as
the location of Soviet industry,, the degree of
industrial concentration in geographic areas the
extent of regional self-sufficiency and inter-
dependence, the Soviet transportation system, the
stockpiling programs industrial bottlenecks,, criti-
cal commodities in short supply, local and over-all
vulnerabilities. Estimates on these subjects will
assist in making estimates of over-all Soviet in-
tentions and estimates of capabilities and inten-
tions in particular areas (e.g., a study of the
Soviet Far East as an aid in estimating Communist
policy in Asia)- They will assist in formulating
national policies on a variety of subjectsi
including trade controls, war plans, weapon de-
velopment, etc, Specific research requirements
will be prepared jointly by Q/NE and O/RR and
referred to appropriate agencies,
co Soviet Capabilities for Conducting Warfare by
Unconventional Paeans: Continuing studies in the
fields of atomic and thermonuclear weapons# guided
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3,
missiless clandestine activities, biological and
chemical weapons, electronics, or other related
methods of conducting unconventional warfare are
required, These studies should cover not only
levels-of technical achievement, but production
and delivery where appropriate, Research require-
ments will be drafted jointly by O/NS9 0/SI, and
0/RR and referred to appropriate agencies.
4, Preparation of estimates on the following subjects is con-
sidered desirable, but of a lower priority than those subjects
noted above, The Board will, initiate them if and when it appears
possible to complete them within the time span of this program,
or earlier, if policy requirements or specific developments re-
quire it,
a. Likelihood of the Loss of Im ortant ktesources of
l.) African (2) Indian Subcontinent, (3) Middle
East, and (4) Latin America, These would be
initiated separately and follow the general
approach of NIE-56 (still in process),
b,, The United Kingdom, with special reference to
its future economic and political development
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
 Approved For Release?~~0, 9 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3
~~ TOP armai T
and the various factors which will determine its
future role in Europe, the Middle East, the Far
East, and the East-West struggle generally.
co Greece, With special reference to its capacity for
development without continuing US aid.
Israel, with particular reference to internal politi-
cal and economic strains and the various factors
which will affect its position in the Middle East
and in the East-West struggle, as well as US prob-
lams and responsibilities,
so Indoonesia, with special reference to basic factors
and trends which will determine whether Indonesia
will remain unstable and vulnerable to Communist
exploitation.
5. The Estimate of the World Situation,, completed this year
in April and October, should continue to be prepared by 0/NE0
The specific target dates will depend upon such policy or opera-
tional requirements as develops
Tom Sffl?&T-
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010025-3