PROPOSED ESTIMATE ON THE SITUATION IN BURMA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010037-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 15, 2000
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: September 23, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010037-0
SECURIT? IN7?DRWITION
CENTRAL INTELLIG.ENGE AGENCY
OFFICE OF M&TION L TIMTSS
DOCUMENTNo.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS,
0 8 S. CHAIaG'ED 23 September 3952
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE. Z2100
AUTH: MR 70.2
STAFF ~DUM N04 27Y vI vVER
SUBJEC?s Proposed #atiaits an the Sitaaation in Burns
1. In the first Bureese national electiaan, completed in early
1952, the socialist-dominated Anti.-Fascist I sopls "s Freedom League
won control of the Oovernment by a substantial majority. Since
the election political stability has increased in Bursa and the
intluesse of the Commmistsponsor+sd Burmsss Workers' and Peasants'
Party has diminished. Of particular importance in achieving incrsased
stability have been the appointment of leading socialist Ba Sae
to replace the ineffectual U Win as Defense Minister, and the
cooperation than by Coaaeasnder-In.Chisf No din, whose opportunism
fonaorly had been considered a major threat to the achievsoent
of permanent political stability in Bnnma.
2,. A decided shift in Burma's foreign policy has also taken
place,, and in deed, if not in .word, Buena is more and more align-
ing Itself with the .at, Despite the acsession of doctrinaire
socialists to high government positions, the Burmese, though still
proclaiming strict neutrality, have accepted US aid under MS& and
TCA, are now seeking military aid frown the US, and in general'ha,e
been less inclined to bend over backwards to avoid antagonizing
Communist China.
3, ldlitari,],y the position of all Insurgent groups has de-
clined during 1952. Anticipated aid to Communist insurgents from
Communist China has failed to materi.a1ize, and the Casmuniste no
longer are capable of establishing a firm'hold over substantial
areas of the country. The Kaarons too have been weakened, as
indicated by their increased efforts for ' a settlement with the
government. In face of such reverses, the Care,auniets have:
(a) increased attempts to form a "united front" of all insurgent
groupaaag but with only minor and local success; (b) aimed propaganda
against the prs+ence of Chinese Nationalist troops in upper Burma,
hoping that an aroused public would force the government to take
Approved For Release 200 0937A000200010037-0
 Apprroved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010037-0
SECRET
action against those troops, and so relieve pressure as the
Gommynists; and (c) adopted a "now line" of ooWr mass, hoping
to gain by infiltration. that they have failed to gain by InsuoTsa-
ticn0 The government, however, has continued its vigorous efforts
against the series CoMtanists.
40 In the light of the above developments, which are consider-
ably more favorable than those projected in X..6 and NIE-36/1,
the Far East staff had decided to recommend a new estimate of the
situation in Boma. At the same time the AD/NE ressived a request
from the Director, OIR, requesting a revision of HIE-36 on an
urgent basis. OIR desires that the estimate (a) include the element
of Chinese Communist intentions, (b) look ahead at least a year,
and (c) tale into 'account the political and aiiitary trends is
Burma since the publication of NI3-36 and HIS-36x/1.
50 The staff believes that a new Bursa estimate will be most
useful if its scope approximates that of UM-36 rather than NIE-36/'10
moreover,, it considers that the title of NI&.36s "Prospects for
Surrivsl of a Non-Communist Regime in Burma", is no longer appropriate.
We therefore suggost that the attached terms of reference be con-
sidsred, for an estimate having "routine" priority.
25X1A9a
note: Pares 1-3 above prepared
by 25X1A9a
SF,,CI 'T
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010037-0