TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE 62-58: THAILAND

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030004-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 1999
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: November 19, 1957
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Staff Memorandum #51-57
STJBJECT: Terms of Reference: N] 62-58: THAIL'.ND
25X1A9a
1. An estimate on Thailand was placed on the tentative list of
the current Estimates Program-with a note to the effect that an estimate
"on Thailand's future orientation and stability following the recent
coup will probably be necessary within the next few months." The staff
now proposes that this paper be scheduled for the second quarter 195$.
In order to provide ample time for the levying of any necessary
requirements on Embassy Bangkok and for research within O1MO we suggest
that the Board act on the attached Terms of Reference at an early,
convenient date.
19 November 1957
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NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
C3 DECLASSIFIED
'q a CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
AUTH: Hf 70-2
DATE: Iff REVIEWER: baL 1. cvz
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
19 November 1957
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE 62-58: THAILAND
(Note: NIE 62-57, "Probable Developments in Thailand", published
18 Juno 1957, is cut of date as a result of the army coup of 16 September
and subsequent developments. Now national elections are now scheduled
for Docombor) 1957. The purpose of this estimate is to analyze the
internal political situation in Thailand and, in light of the now situation,
to reexamine the country's prospects for political stability and its
probable international orientation over the next year or two.)
THE PROBLEM
To estimate tho probable developments in Thailand over the next year
or two.
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QUESTIONS
I. THE POLITICAL SITUATION
1. Analyze the present ruling group in terms of its prospects,
strength and woaknoss. What is its role in the political situation?
Is it a force for political stability or for political dissention? Who
are its loading personalities? What is the position of Sarit? What
cliques exist within the ruling grotlp, Is it likely to split up? If
so, why and what clique or individuals would probably emerge on top?
What are tho prevailing attitudes within the ruling group toward Sarit,
Phibun, Phao, Pridi, tho Monarchy, the "Royalists", the loft-wing groups
in Thailand? Has there boon any change in the extent or nature of
corruption in
ovornmont since the now ruling group camp into power?
11
2. What is the present role of such groups as the "Royalists'", the
intellectuals, and the civil service? What are their prospects as a
political force? What is the role of the King in the intornal political
situation? Is the role of public opinion and the press becoming moro
important? If so, why and in what way?
3. What is the oriontation, present role, and strength of the major
political parties? Who are their loaders and what are their connections
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with the ruling group? What are the future prospects for those political
parties and their leaders. Ara political parties becoming more important
in Thai politics?
Li,. What significant trends were revealed by the recent olections?
Were they free and hosest elections? If not, to what extent and in what
way were they corrupt? What is the composition of Parliament (chart)?
Is the Parliament playing, or likely to play, a more important role in
Thai politics. If so, why and in what way?
5. What is the extent and nature of public support for the government?
Has the now ruling group taken any action to moot the basic causes of public
dissatisfaction with the government that wore manifested during the
February 1957 election campaign? If so, what and how effective are the
measures? What are the prospects for stable government? What are the
throats to the present ruling groupts continued control of the government?
If the -)rosont ruling group is ousted, what individuals or groups are
likely to come to power?
6. What is the Communist situation? What has boon the impact of the
Communists and the loft-wing on the political situation? What are the
trends in strength, effectiveness, and influence of the Communists and the
loft wing
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7. What political and security problems are raised by racial
minorities, especially the Overseas Chinese? By provincial interests?
What are the government's policies toward these problems and the prospects
for overcoming them?
II. THE ECONOMIC SITUATION
8. Have there boon any significant shifts in.Thailandrs economic
situation since the last estimate? If so, explain thorn in terms of cause
and sign2ficanco0 To what extent are they a consequence of the recant
political developments?
9. What is the attitude of the government and of the ruling group
toward Thailandts economic problems? What is the economic outlook for
Thailand? Is the economic situation likely to affect Thailand's political
situation or its international orientation? If so, in what way?
III. SECURITY FORCES
10. What are the strengths, weaknesses, and capabilities of the
armed forces, including the police, with respect to internal subversion
or uprising? What respect to defense against external a;ggrossion?
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11, What role do the military and police forces play in the Thai
political situation? How have the recant political developments affected
the political roles of the military and police forces? Are there evidences
of unrest or dissatisfaction with the government or the present ruling
group within the security forces? If so, what are the likely consequences?
12. What is Thailand's general international orientation and the
principal factors determinin it? To what extent and in what way is it
changed or likely to be chap ed by the now government and Tulin, roup?
What trends in Thailand's international orientation are likely ovor the
next year r two?
13. What are the trends in opinion among government leaders and the
public concerning neutralism, Communism., SEATO, and Communist China?
14. Havo there boon any significant changes since the last ostimato
in the Thai govornmont's relations with the Sino-Soviot Bloc? The countries
of non-Communist Asia? What chnngcs have taken place, and why? What are
the likely developments in those relations over the next year or two?
What are Thai rL:actions to recent developments in Laos,, Cambodia, and Burma?
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15r What is the status of Thai-US relations? What area the Thai
complaints or sources of dissatisfaction with the present rolationshi;.a?
Doos the present rulin; grrup, or important members of it, have any spacial
dissatisfaction with the US or its policies? What changes are likely in
Thai-US relations over the next year or two and what are thoir probable
causes? What would be the probable effect if the US rocognizod Communist
China or acquiesced in its admission to the UN?
1. What major intelligence deficiencies exist in our coverago of
VI. VALIDITY STUDY
1. Assess the conclusions and major sections of NIB 62-57 for
validity? In those instances where the ostinntod orrod, what was the
cause2
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