POSSIBLE SNIE ON THE KASHMIR DISPUTE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030020-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 1999
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: June 24, 1957
• Content Type: MEMO

A proves -For R, 9ase 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP79T9037A0005000309~
C E N T R A L INTELLIGENCE A G E N C
Cr'FICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
probability of any mutua satisfactory solution, the chances of major
in our existing estimate on India and Pakistan* and that a new SNIE
would merely reaffirm the long hold conclusion that, despite the im-
z].ities between Pakistan and Tx . r in small. However., a brief
STAFF MEMORANDUM NO. 36-57
SUBJECT: Possible SNIE on the Kashmir Dispute
Assistant Secretary of State Rountree, plans to propowo at tomorrow's)
1. We have been informed that Mr,, Cumming, at the request o
MAC meeting that a SNIE be undertaken on the Kashmir dispute. Although
such an estimate would presumably provide some reassessment of the pros-
pect,s for a settlement, it would probably be directed primarily at
estimating the likelihood of serious trouble in the probable event that
Pakistan:a projected re-rkising of the issue at the UN Security Council
this summer '(and probably thereafter at the General Assembly) fails to
produce any tangible results,
[ ?-. 26 We believe that the situation remains generally as described
ments of the last few months. Pakistan has scored a notable diplomatic
victory over India in inducing the UN to reaffirm its support of a
urvey of the situation might be justified in the light of the develop-
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 :CIA-
DATE ? 9.4 6 REVIEWER:OO 2,
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. oC4
A DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NIB 51=56, "India over the Next Five Years," 8 May 1956
NIE 52.56, "Probable Developments in Pakistan," 13 November 1956
 ApprQ.Vd For R I ase 2000/IA-RDP79TE 37A000500030020-3
plebiscite in Kashmir despite India's objections. There have been some
signs of restiveness over the situation on the part of Azad Kashmir
leaders, tribesmen, and members of the Pakistani military establishment.
Since the Pakistan government's projected efforts to pursue its case at
the UN w111 almost certain fail to a real concessions from
India, pressures for more direct action are likely to increase once the
UN phase is over. Meanwhile, India, which is smarting and embarrassed
over the diplomatic and prestige setbacks it has suffered at Pakistan's
hands, may be in a more truculent mood, especially in view of its fear
that continued US military aid for Pakistan will destroy India's mili-
tary preponderance over Pakistan.
3. If a SNIE on Kashmir is authorized by the IAC, we recommend the
following schedules
Staff Draft to Chief, Estimates Staff ......
Board Consideration ........................
JAC Representatives meet ..................
Wednesdays, 26 June
Monday, 1 July
Wednesdays, 3 July
Wednesday, 10 July
Tuesday, 16 July
25X1A9a
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030020-3