CABINET CHANGE IN IRAQ

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030022-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 1999
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: June 19, 1957
• Content Type: MEMO

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C N N T R A L I N T L L L I G E N C L A G E N C Y
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMA'M
19 June 1957
STAFF tOH.ANAUM NO a 34-57
SUHJECT a cabinet Change in Iraq
1, pour days after approval of NI 362?, The Outlook for
Iraq,," on 1t June, Nun Said resigned as prime minister. After a
period of uncertainty in which it at first appeared that Nuri would
merely take the occasion to shake up his old cabinet, a new govern-
ment has now been forced under the leadership of a conservative
older statesman and ax price miriister3 All Jawdat al Ayyubio Jaawdat
has long been a member of the ruling oligarchy in Iraq and is un-
lkely to do anything contrary to the wishes of Nuri and the Palace.
2. This rather inconsiderately timed development was anti-
cipated in Conclusion 2 and in Paragraph 11 of the estimate (note
especiafy third sentence) and does not appear to affect the estimate's
validity. However) the Board may wish to consider the desirability
of ci ulating a reassuring note to this affect to holders of NIE 362 ?57
3, Attached for reference ares (a) Conclusion 2 and Paragraph 11
of NIE 36?2.573 and (b) a draft note to holders of the estimate
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Esc tga from NIN 3fi 2 7
"2." Iraq will probably retain its present political stability so
long as Nuri Said remains active,, either as premier or as the power
behind the scene. However, undercurrents of opposition to the regime
will probably require continuing reliance on authoritarian methods
and, over the longer run, demands for broader participation in govern
mental affairs will probably become increasingly forceful.
"n." Nevertheless Nuri appears to be well ensconced in power,# and
he will almost certainly continue to be a potent influence in the
political scene whether in or out of office-so long as he remains
active. In addition to the -aupport of a considerable body of Iraqi
leaders, particularly tribal elements,,, Nuri now enjoys the backing
of the Palace. Although Nuri may in time elect, as he has before, to
step down as prime minister, his influence even out of office would
remain predominant. His successor would probably be one of a small
rather static circle of established political leaders who share his
basic outlook and orientation. Under a new and presumably weaker
premier, a considerable increase in political jockeying for position
and overt opposition to the government would be likely. However, Nuri
and the Palace would probably be able to prevent the situation from
getting out of hand. Thus, a major threat to Irages stability and
present orientation is unlikely to arise during Nuries active life.
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030022-1
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S - sECRI
19 June 1957
NOTE TO Hams OF Na 36.2-57 The Out-look for Iraq
Shortly after approval of this estimate on 4 June. 1957 Nun said
resigned as prime minister of Iraq; a new government has now beef To=ed
under tha leadership of they veteran conservative leader and ex-prime
mini.ster,# Ali Jawdat al Ayyubi. lour attention is directed to the fact
that this development was anticipated in Conc1ti ion 2 and in Paragraph
11 of the estimate ( .c+A especially third sentence) and does note appear
to affect the a fttimate& a validity.
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030022-1