CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000400120001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 5, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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5 October 1951
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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DOS review(s) completed.
TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
USSR
1. Prospects for Soviet industrial expansion considered
poor (page 3)0
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WESTERN EUROPE
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6. Italians end opposition to European Defense Forces age 6
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From a recently completed survey of
current Soviet industrial expansion and
its immediate production prospects, Embassy
Moscow concludes that the rate of industrial
expansion in e 05511 or 1951- i..95:5 will "taper off" well below the rate
1. Prospects for Soviet industrial expansiof, considered poor.
of the past five years. Main reasons for this anticipated decline are the
strict limitations on Soviet labor reserves and plant capacity, and the
government's failure to achieve a substantial increase in industrial
efficiency and labor productivity.
Direct Embassy observations in the past
year in Moscow and other areas attest to continuing low productivity of
Soviet workers due to improper use and maintenance of machinery and
backward work techniques. The USSR also continues to suffer from a
shortage of labor.
The Embassy believes that an attempt to
increase military and civilian output simultaneously would restrict the
USSR to minor progress in each sphere. Any sizable increase in Soviet
armaments and armed forces will therefore show an absolute decline in
non-military output.
situation continues in the USSR, Attempts to. circumvent export controls,
increased demands for Satellite capital goods and appeals for more
efficient exploitation of existing plant facilities seem to substantiate this
opinion. However, if labor reserves have not yet been completely ex-
hausted, some increase in productivity can be expected in the period
1951-1955. As output increases, some drop in the rate of increase is
to be expected.
mbassy's thesis that a tight economic
Comment.
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 AffRV For R
WESTERN EUROPE.
6. Italians end opposition to European Defense Forces-
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prepared.to accept the interim report as a basis of discussion on most
questions, and to drop a number of its previous reservations.
The highlight of the most recent session of
the European Defense Forces conference
was a report by the Italian delegate to the
effect that the Italian Government was
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A3p0taIet% Fot
On the provisions for financing the
European Defense Forces, which they had seriously opposed, the
Italians are now willing to join with other powers in the transfer of
some control over military budgets to the European Assembly.
Comment- As previously believed, Italian
opposition to European Defense Forces plans was intended to strengthen
-De Gasperi's bargaining position at Ottawa and Washipgton. Premier
De Gasperi's Christian Democrats will probably be able to win
Italian Parliamentary approval for financing European defense plans.
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