CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000400180001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 12, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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.12, October 1951
Copy No.
47
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
00CLIM ENT N10.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. I*je
-CLASS 0!-70
CLASS. CHA'2GL0 TO: TS S C.~
NEXT REV`EVJ UA T E:
AUTI is R 71# DATE.. .1 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
State Department review completed
TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Vietnam desires equal voice in French Union (page 3).
NEAR EAST
2. Iranian oil commission head refuses to return to Abadan (page 3).
3. Anglo-American Security Council Resolution on Iran to be
released on 12 October (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Austrian Government will try to expel Communist labor
organization (page 5).
5. Soviet official asserts willingness of USSR to participate in
Austrian treaty talks (page 5).
6. French Finance Minister appears distressed over task of
presenting budget to Parliament (page 6).
7. Italians expect greater benefits from trade with Soviet bloc (page 7).
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FAR E4ST
1. Vietnam desires equal voice in French Union:
Bao Dai's representative in Paris told a US
Embassy official that his government will
press for equal representation for all
participating countries during the forthcoming
High Council of the French Union. He points out
that the constitution of the French Union was drawn up by France and
therefore "does not represent present realities. 14
Comment: The Vietnamese take the position
that the constitution of the French Union (which forms part of the
constitution of the Fourth French Republic) is flexible, and they will
continue to press for an organization within which France is "first among
equals" rather than--as at present--the sole arbiter of policy for the
entire French Union.
While no reports have been received on the
exact position which the French will take in the forthcoming High Council
meeting, they are determined to maintain their position of ascendancy in
the French Union. French intransigence on this issue would arouse much
ill-feeling among the Vietnamese.
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2. Iranian oil commission head refuses to return to Abadan:
Parliamentary Deputy Makki now intends to
remain in Tehran rather than to return to
Abadan, where he has headed the Joint Oil
Commission. He has declared that the
expulsion of the British technicians concluded his duties in Abadan and
that another committee member has taken over the responsibility for
supervising the administration of the oil industry. The US Ambassador
in Tehran believes that Makki is unwilling to be held responsible for the
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difficult job of coping with the unemployment and unrest which. are
expected in Abadan.
Comment. Makki, one of the popular leaders
of the National Front, often acts. as Prime .Minister Mossadeq.'s right
hand man. His political ambitions may account for his presence in
Tehran during the Prime Minister's absence. He is the most demogogic
and opportunistic of the National Front deputies and has been a prime
factor in the past in whipping up nationalistic sentiment.
3. Anglo-American Security Council Resolution on Iran to be released on
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The American-British draft resolution
requesting the reopening of negotiations on
the Anglo-Iranian oil dispute will, be released
to the press on 12 October, after Prime
Minister Mossadeq has seen it. Sir Gladwyn
Jebb ha - tated further that Great Britain wanted the text published on
schedule even if seven votes in support of it had not yet been assured.
Comment. Release of the text of the
resolution to the press may complicate the situation. Prime Minister
Mossadeq, when expressing a desire to reopen negotiations prior to
Security Council consideration, stated that his strong presentation of
Iran's case to the UN would preclude further negotiations. Publication
of the draft accordingly may persuade him that he has been denied the
opportunity of private negotiations and could induce him to concentrate
on refuting the Security Council's competence.
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WESTERN EUROPE
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4. Austrian Government will try to expel Communist labor organization:
Foreign Minister Gruber has told. the US
High Commissioner in Vienna that the
Austrian Cabinet decided on 9 October to
declare the World Federation of Trade Unions
Illegal an expel it rom Austria. Public announcement of this ban would
soon be made. However, Gruber believes that, in spite of this decision,
. the federation will remain in Vienna under Soviet protection.
Comment: The Austrian Government and
the Western powers have objected to the presence of the federation's
headquarters in Vienna ever since it moved there last April following
expulsion from Paris. However, the Austrian Government, despite
Western prodding, has not felt until now that it could take definite action
in the face of Soviet opposition.
The new, stronger attitude of the Austrian
Government may be an encouraging sign, but it could also be designed
merely to place responsibility for the continuation of the unpopular
Communist organization in Austria squarely upon the Soviet occupation
forces.
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5. Soviet official asserts willingness of USSR to participate in Austrian
treaty talks:
The Soviet political adviser in Vienna,
recently returned from a Russian vacation,
has assured Foreign Minister Gruber that
the Soviet Government would participate in
any new Meeting oi,tne eputy Foreign Ministers on the subject of an
Austrian treaty. Queried as to his government's attitude on the treaty,
the Soviet adviser replied that it has not changed from that stated by
Gromyko at the Paris meeting. Gruber says that the political adviser
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was unusually friendly and gave the impression that Moscow wishes to
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avoid new controversies with the Austrian Government.
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Comment:
since Soviet tactics in Austria have heretofore included "both
e stick. and the carrot" it is doubtful that any change in Russian policy
is indicated.
At Paris, the Soviets linked the issue of
Trieste with the question of an Austrian treaty settlement.
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6. French Finance Minister appears distressed over task of presenting
budget to Parliament.
balance of trade prospects. He has indicated to US Embassy officials
that a full picture of the present unfavorable economic situation would
have to be disclosed. His many difficulties are now complicated by the
"tightening treasury position. "
French Minister of Finance Mayer is even
more concerned than Premier Pleven over
the political consequences of presenting to
Parliament the 1952 budget and the adverse
Mayer is anxious to proceed with US-French
talks on US aid to both France and Indochina. He said that unless the
French share of expenditures in Indochina for 1952 can be reduced to
about 570 million dollars, it would not be possible to submit to Parliament
even an interim budget consistent with French engagements in Europe.
The cost of the war in Indochina in calendar year 1952 is expected by the
French to approximate a billion dollars.
Comment: French officials at times
appear to exaggerate their financial difficulties in an effort to obtain
more or prompter US aid. The government's defense program,
nevertheless, is seriously jeopardized by the deterioration of the French
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economic position and the probable opposition, even from coalition
deputies, on the budget issue. The US Embassy in Paris recently reported
that Pleven was "obviously worried" about his chances of resolving
domestic problems.
In. September, Foreign Minister Schuman
requested US arms and equipment for Indochina in fiscal year 1952
equivalent to about 400 million dollars, which would be over and above
French expenditures. This figure equals Schuman's estimate for the
French deficit arising from Indochinese expenses in 1952 and is almost
double the total amount which the US has proposed for Indochina in fiscal
year 1952.
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7. Italians expect greater benefits from trade with Soviet bloc:
Soviet shipments of 200, 000 tons of fuel oil
and 100, 000 tons of crude oil are reported
to be on their way to Italy. According to
the Italo-Soviet trade agreements of 1948,
the USSR was expected to send Italy such
petroleum products, but these are the first
shipments since the agreements were signed.
A new Italo-Soviet trade agreement is now
being negotiated, but has been impeded so far by Italian unwillingness to
pay high prices for Soviet wheat, petroleum, coal and manganese.
Recently, the Italians presented to the
Coordinating Committee on East-West trade in Paris the details of a
barter agreement with Czechoslovakia. Italy would trade ball bearings
and industrial and consumer goods for 50, 000 tons of coal, special
steel and other industrial and consumer goods.
Comment: This year's relatively poor
Italian wheat crop and the greater economic activity which the Italians
anticipate give imports from the Soviet bloc more than usual importance.
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Wheat imports in 1951, for instance, are expected to be over 50 percent
more than those in 1950.
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