CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000600340001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 23, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 3, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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3 April 1952
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Copy No.-77
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO C HENCE IN `LASS.
GI-A-4,", ?; . c_D TO: .1
DATE.
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Office of Current Intelligence
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STATE review completed
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
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1. Brita'::~ sees advantage for USSR in recent exchange of notes on
Germany (page 3)0
2. Paris embassy expects Soviet rejection of Western arguments on
Germany (page 3)0
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FAR EAST
4. French official considers situation in Indochina "catastrophic"
(page 5)0
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. British proceeding with constitutional development in Sudan (page 5)0
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Attempted assassination of Czechoslovak Minister of National
Security reported (page 6).
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GENERAL
Britain sees advantage for USSR in recent exchange of notes on Germany:
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The chief of German affairs in the British
Foreign Office says that the Soviet Union has
unquestionably derived some advantage from
the recent exchange of notes on a German
peace treaty. He believes that German opinion has been so softened
that the Russians can now make "real trouble" by accepting the principle
of all-German elections under quadripartite supervision, meanwhile
insisting on four-power treaty talks and simultaneous East-West German
discussions of election conditions.
This British official thinks that the current
lack of progress in the Allied-German contractual negotiations may be
due largely to the tendency of negotiators on each side to count too
heavily upon concessions from the other, and to French hesitancy now
that close relations with Germany are imminent
Comment-. Foreign Secretary Eden has
suggested that the USSR may be-willing to offer a big price, such as
a relaxation of its .control over East Germany, in order to start negoti-
ations which would prevent West Germany's prompt integration into the
Western defense systems The Russians could then stall these negoti-
ations as they have done in the case of Austria.
20 Paris embassy expects Soviet rejection of Western arguments on
ermany:
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The United States Embassy in Paris believes
that the Soviet rejoinder to the Western reply
on the German treaty proposal "will contain
rejection and detailed argumentation against
particular Western points." The major issue upon which the Soviet Union
will now concentrate will be the alleged alternatives between unification
of a peaceful, independent Germany, and integration of Germany into a
Western bloc that is feverishly rearming.
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The Embassy also believes that the USSR will
not dwell on the German boundary question in its reply in order to avoid
reopening the entire question of the Oder-Neisse line, but that it may
inject the Saar issue in order to appeal to German opinion. In order to
offset the weakened position of the French Communists, who were em-
barrased by the USSR's support of a German army, the reply may spell
out the Soviet concept of limited national armed forces for defensive
purposes.
The Embassy maintains that the USSR may
wish to postpone the final detailing of concessions it is willing to make
until the development of the "crisis" which it anticipates later this year
in France and possibly Great Britain,
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FAR EAST
4. French official considers situation in Indochina "catastrophic":
Acting High Commissioner Gautier in Indochina
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is renorted
as
having very recently described the military
situation in Indochina as "catastrophic."
Comment: Reliable current reports do not
indicate that the military situation in Indochina is catastrophic, but rather
that it is slowly worsening. Although French forces appear capable of
holding roughly their present positions for many months and of achieving
some local successes, relative Viet Minh capabilities are steadily in-
creasing.
NEAR EAST -AFRICA
5. British proceeding with constitutional development in Sudan-.
The British Ambassador in Cairo is disappointed
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Sudan to introduce the new draft constitution
into the Legislative Assembly on 2 April, despite
the recent insistent demands of the Egyptian Government that Britain delay
its plans.
Comment: Foreign Secretary Eden stated
last November that progress toward self-government in the Sudan should
continue and that the government welcomed the prospect of the new consti-
tution's being in operation by the end of 1952.
This constitution, which provides for an all-
Sudanese Council of Ministers responsible in meet respects to a parliament
composed largely of elected members, would remain in effect until a Sudan-
ese Constituent Assembly is elected sometime in 1953 to determine the
future status of the territory.
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EASTERN EUROPE
6. Attempted assassination of Czechoslovak Minister of National Security
reported:
Minister of National Security Karel Bacilek
and his driver are both hospitalized with
wounds received when the Minister's car
was fired upon within the last few days,
Comment: Organized resistance as such has
been negligible in Czechoslovakia.
Bacilek is a veteran Czechoslovak Communist
who has risen rapidly in the governmental hierarchy. He was appointed
Minister of State Control in September 1951 and replaced Ladislav Kopriva
as Minister of National Security in January 19520
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